Selected Results
2022-10-20
Overview
All models below were executed with impulse indicator saturation (IIS) enabled and a block size of 20. In order to avoid endless output, where reasonable, I present only the model specifications with all three ETS phase dummies (2005, 2008, 2013), a p-value threshold of 0.01, and spanning 2019-2021.
Country sample: EU-15, United States, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Switzerland
Levels
Standard Controls
1990-2021
AR = 0
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Thu Oct 13 14:38:46 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672
## Sample: 1 to 672
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp -0.2267072 0.2490836 -0.9102 0.3631092
## lpop 0.3128056 0.1863785 1.6783 0.0938140 .
## lgdp_sq 0.0045417 0.0048995 0.9270 0.3543179
## idAustria -1.9977703 0.1430139 -13.9691 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -1.4947697 0.1066445 -14.0164 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -0.4525842 0.0915476 -4.9437 1.002e-06 ***
## idDenmark -1.2200040 0.2108826 -5.7852 1.179e-08 ***
## idFinland -1.4125173 0.2110527 -6.6927 5.124e-11 ***
## idFrance -1.5597321 0.1896817 -8.2229 1.281e-15 ***
## idGermany 0.3502397 0.2273463 1.5406 0.1239637
## idGreece -1.1451584 0.0892518 -12.8306 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -1.9208618 0.2496537 -7.6941 6.056e-14 ***
## idItaly -0.4943468 0.1810932 -2.7298 0.0065276 **
## idJapan 0.3746376 0.2946579 1.2714 0.2040784
## idLuxembourg -3.9741137 0.6299617 -6.3085 5.550e-10 ***
## idNetherlands -0.9569203 0.0543494 -17.6068 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -3.0185284 0.2546859 -11.8520 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -1.8511557 0.0946398 -19.5600 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -0.8517221 0.1430947 -5.9522 4.554e-09 ***
## idSweden -2.4732950 0.1296818 -19.0720 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -3.7567040 0.1717826 -21.8689 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom -0.0961348 0.1879708 -0.5114 0.6092389
## idUnitedStates 1.7714286 0.4194870 4.2228 2.796e-05 ***
## time1990 9.3822276 4.4340565 2.1159 0.0347697 *
## time1991 9.4438664 4.4342032 2.1298 0.0336053 *
## time1992 9.4408272 4.4335376 2.1294 0.0336357 *
## time1993 9.3964956 4.4355874 2.1184 0.0345579 *
## time1994 9.4242495 4.4347899 2.1251 0.0339976 *
## time1995 9.4498039 4.4322865 2.1320 0.0334182 *
## time1996 9.4672897 4.4326290 2.1358 0.0331074 *
## time1997 9.4760300 4.4332080 2.1375 0.0329690 *
## time1998 9.5025802 4.4331769 2.1435 0.0324821 *
## time1999 9.5056066 4.4331980 2.1442 0.0324279 *
## time2000 9.5106292 4.4350471 2.1444 0.0324087 *
## time2001 9.5587890 4.4358310 2.1549 0.0315754 *
## time2002 9.5822414 4.4342587 2.1610 0.0311024 *
## time2003 9.6170683 4.4308900 2.1705 0.0303722 *
## time2004 9.6301942 4.4282051 2.1747 0.0300482 *
## time2005 9.6266779 4.4278032 2.1741 0.0300932 *
## time2006 9.6360666 4.4272141 2.1766 0.0299118 *
## time2007 9.6089076 4.4248163 2.1716 0.0302860 *
## time2008 9.5454480 4.4236277 2.1578 0.0313458 *
## time2009 9.4866871 4.4269926 2.1429 0.0325301 *
## time2010 9.5110088 4.4269694 2.1484 0.0320885 *
## time2011 9.4256555 4.4252721 2.1300 0.0335901 *
## time2012 9.4179912 4.4269402 2.1274 0.0338008 *
## time2013 9.3555347 4.4261081 2.1137 0.0349608 *
## time2014 9.2600218 4.4265690 2.0919 0.0368749 *
## time2015 9.2883100 4.4303377 2.0965 0.0364631 *
## time2016 9.2783101 4.4307233 2.0941 0.0366807 *
## time2017 9.2764373 4.4300510 2.0940 0.0366901 *
## time2018 9.2154575 4.4288038 2.0808 0.0378852 *
## time2019 9.1177896 4.4297146 2.0583 0.0399998 *
## time2020 9.0031631 4.4310738 2.0318 0.0426213 *
## time2021 9.0439918 4.4279646 2.0425 0.0415510 *
## iis181 0.4066448 0.1126625 3.6094 0.0003331 ***
## iis407 0.8440336 0.1337128 6.3123 5.424e-10 ***
## iis408 0.8488375 0.1334414 6.3611 4.032e-10 ***
## iis409 0.7916366 0.1331638 5.9448 4.751e-09 ***
## iis410 0.8431351 0.1331322 6.3331 4.782e-10 ***
## iis411 0.5714103 0.1329822 4.2969 2.027e-05 ***
## iis414 -0.8863110 0.1156523 -7.6636 7.519e-14 ***
## iis415 -1.9578847 0.1153460 -16.9740 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416 -1.8512026 0.1149419 -16.1056 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417 -1.5933814 0.1149925 -13.8564 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418 -1.0681734 0.1148934 -9.2971 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis433 -0.8415339 0.1253989 -6.7109 4.566e-11 ***
## iis434 -0.8684446 0.1256018 -6.9143 1.231e-11 ***
## iis435 -0.9041789 0.1258194 -7.1863 2.030e-12 ***
## iis640 -0.8228432 0.1261004 -6.5253 1.468e-10 ***
## iis641 -0.7539098 0.1261403 -5.9768 3.951e-09 ***
## iis642 -0.7394725 0.1263919 -5.8506 8.142e-09 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001 -0.2656017 0.0408064 -6.5088 1.626e-10 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2013 0.2735748 0.0435487 6.2820 6.511e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004 -0.4008078 0.0450133 -8.9042 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015 -0.5692559 0.0527014 -10.8015 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2000 -0.1216057 0.0456334 -2.6648 0.0079143 **
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -0.4813188 0.0502392 -9.5805 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997 0.2683816 0.0868639 3.0897 0.0020986 **
## fesisLuxembourg.2013 -0.4466399 0.0728101 -6.1343 1.573e-09 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014 0.2545242 0.0447069 5.6932 1.972e-08 ***
## fesisJapan.2011 0.5072433 0.0430943 11.7705 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998 0.1403702 0.0525719 2.6701 0.0077938 **
## fesisAustralia.2008 0.2060760 0.0482644 4.2697 2.282e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997 0.4854329 0.0508282 9.5505 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 151.72 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 34.98 1 3.331e-09 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.10585
## R-squared 0.99700
## Log-lik.(n=672) 598.08980
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Thu Oct 13 14:38:50 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672
## Sample: 1 to 672
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp -0.2408237 0.2624185 -0.9177 0.3591396
## lpop 0.4201829 0.1949642 2.1552 0.0315442 *
## lgdp_sq 0.0045459 0.0051401 0.8844 0.3768420
## idAustria -1.9903866 0.1524182 -13.0587 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -1.6863182 0.1103237 -15.2852 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -0.5745775 0.0863881 -6.6511 6.547e-11 ***
## idDenmark -1.1473456 0.2244706 -5.1113 4.305e-07 ***
## idFinland -1.3635183 0.2246665 -6.0691 2.279e-09 ***
## idFrance -1.7440619 0.1914108 -9.1116 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idGermany 0.1426712 0.2314048 0.6165 0.5377692
## idGreece -1.1729572 0.0942285 -12.4480 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -1.8489665 0.2653200 -6.9688 8.429e-12 ***
## idItaly -0.6731582 0.1821599 -3.6954 0.0002396 ***
## idJapan 0.1266055 0.3026688 0.4183 0.6758793
## idLuxembourg -2.9061004 0.6648187 -4.3713 1.456e-05 ***
## idNetherlands -0.9486078 0.0521483 -18.1906 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -2.9532816 0.2707525 -10.9077 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -1.8755589 0.1002139 -18.7156 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -1.0061968 0.1415587 -7.1080 3.351e-12 ***
## idSweden -2.4746511 0.1380694 -17.9232 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -3.7320524 0.1829724 -20.3968 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom -0.3481623 0.1853327 -1.8786 0.0607857 .
## idUnitedStates 1.4468429 0.4346213 3.3290 0.0009250 ***
## time1990 8.0434907 4.6127469 1.7438 0.0817135 .
## time1991 8.1048924 4.6130043 1.7570 0.0794328 .
## time1992 8.0992877 4.6124869 1.7559 0.0796066 .
## time1993 8.0558557 4.6145471 1.7458 0.0813650 .
## time1994 8.0710522 4.6139018 1.7493 0.0807513 .
## time1995 8.1084935 4.6112173 1.7584 0.0791837 .
## time1996 8.1450819 4.6115369 1.7662 0.0778632 .
## time1997 8.1327986 4.6121376 1.7633 0.0783501 .
## time1998 8.1660194 4.6124368 1.7704 0.0771616 .
## time1999 8.1688204 4.6124645 1.7710 0.0770622 .
## time2000 8.1666063 4.6138644 1.7700 0.0772317 .
## time2001 8.2008785 4.6147615 1.7771 0.0760580 .
## time2002 8.2248440 4.6131688 1.7829 0.0751063 .
## time2003 8.2615916 4.6097966 1.7922 0.0736068 .
## time2004 8.2766316 4.6070833 1.7965 0.0729169 .
## time2005 8.2730728 4.6066911 1.7959 0.0730155 .
## time2006 8.2825001 4.6061102 1.7982 0.0726542 .
## time2007 8.2563720 4.6037011 1.7934 0.0734084 .
## time2008 8.1904322 4.6023569 1.7796 0.0756439 .
## time2009 8.1296387 4.6057762 1.7651 0.0780554 .
## time2010 8.1536522 4.6057602 1.7703 0.0771814 .
## time2011 8.0688359 4.6040490 1.7526 0.0801888 .
## time2012 8.0600126 4.6057430 1.7500 0.0806300 .
## time2013 7.9985665 4.6048800 1.7370 0.0829037 .
## time2014 7.9147309 4.6052685 1.7186 0.0861976 .
## time2015 7.9441386 4.6092770 1.7235 0.0853105 .
## time2016 7.9332603 4.6093724 1.7211 0.0857446 .
## time2017 7.9300859 4.6088631 1.7206 0.0858351 .
## time2018 7.8676597 4.6077521 1.7075 0.0882487 .
## time2019 7.7730754 4.6087643 1.6866 0.0922020 .
## time2020 7.6608724 4.6101720 1.6617 0.0970879 .
## time2021 7.7037117 4.6071780 1.6721 0.0950230 .
## iis415 -1.9741260 0.1242812 -15.8843 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416 -1.8675100 0.1238566 -15.0780 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417 -1.6043273 0.1238611 -12.9526 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418 -1.0664072 0.1238006 -8.6139 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2013 0.2650862 0.0468634 5.6566 2.390e-08 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004 -0.4149791 0.0476658 -8.7060 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015 -0.5832285 0.0567481 -10.2775 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -0.5388994 0.0506164 -10.6467 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995 -0.7912513 0.0983829 -8.0426 4.699e-15 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997 -0.6094364 0.1433184 -4.2523 2.453e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1998 0.8949572 0.1245276 7.1868 1.974e-12 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013 -0.4634095 0.0783752 -5.9127 5.646e-09 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016 -0.8350722 0.0836641 -9.9813 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisJapan.2011 0.5093517 0.0463089 10.9990 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2008 0.2640983 0.0466370 5.6628 2.309e-08 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997 0.4871320 0.0544138 8.9524 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 186.819 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 47.778 1 4.772e-12 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.11414
## R-squared 0.99643
## Log-lik.(n=672) 540.45591AR = 1
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1"
##
## Date: Thu Oct 13 21:14:20 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651
## Sample: 1 to 651
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## ar1 0.812601 0.019326 42.0480 < 2.2e-16 ***
## lgdp 22.157272 6.915579 3.2040 0.0014298 **
## lpop -22.755072 6.793278 -3.3496 0.0008616 ***
## lgdp_sq -0.242266 0.083700 -2.8945 0.0039406 **
## idAustria -0.479933 0.053142 -9.0311 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -0.414458 0.045943 -9.0211 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -0.108230 0.024267 -4.4599 9.847e-06 ***
## idDenmark -0.304564 0.054285 -5.6104 3.126e-08 ***
## idFinland -0.402255 0.045578 -8.8256 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance -0.284954 0.034747 -8.2009 1.536e-15 ***
## idGermany 0.093123 0.025448 3.6594 0.0002758 ***
## idGreece -0.316393 0.037366 -8.4675 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -0.505402 0.055543 -9.0992 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly -0.081357 0.023290 -3.4932 0.0005136 ***
## idJapan 0.181221 0.029172 6.2123 9.960e-10 ***
## idLuxembourg -0.862136 0.102908 -8.3777 4.067e-16 ***
## idNetherlands -0.223996 0.031733 -7.0588 4.807e-12 ***
## idNewZealand -0.635694 0.068497 -9.2806 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -0.439075 0.049310 -8.9043 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -0.168052 0.027144 -6.1911 1.130e-09 ***
## idSweden -0.572496 0.060950 -9.3928 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -0.786230 0.084266 -9.3303 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom -0.061537 0.022415 -2.7454 0.0062315 **
## idUnitedStates 0.456445 0.053385 8.5500 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time1991 -30.325380 9.842683 -3.0810 0.0021606 **
## time1992 -29.842737 9.691367 -3.0793 0.0021728 **
## time1993 -29.396188 9.554829 -3.0766 0.0021925 **
## time1994 -29.095337 9.484599 -3.0676 0.0022580 **
## time1995 -29.267450 9.518866 -3.0747 0.0022063 **
## time1996 -29.382729 9.542571 -3.0791 0.0021741 **
## time1997 -29.531799 9.572852 -3.0850 0.0021326 **
## time1998 -29.019463 9.439437 -3.0743 0.0022092 **
## time1999 -29.453813 9.544613 -3.0859 0.0021259 **
## time2000 -30.070979 9.701213 -3.0997 0.0020308 **
## time2001 -29.724510 9.609186 -3.0933 0.0020742 **
## time2002 -29.734068 9.603236 -3.0963 0.0020543 **
## time2003 -30.959935 9.922745 -3.1201 0.0018976 **
## time2004 -31.982553 10.174974 -3.1433 0.0017560 **
## time2005 -32.911935 10.415955 -3.1598 0.0016611 **
## time2006 -33.741110 10.613757 -3.1790 0.0015565 **
## time2007 -34.440504 10.789636 -3.1920 0.0014892 **
## time2008 -34.702763 10.840890 -3.2011 0.0014438 **
## time2009 -33.413760 10.489673 -3.1854 0.0015230 **
## time2010 -34.465448 10.778566 -3.1976 0.0014612 **
## time2011 -35.216817 10.941392 -3.2187 0.0013596 **
## time2012 -35.093591 10.910478 -3.2165 0.0013698 **
## time2013 -35.000338 10.860651 -3.2227 0.0013411 **
## time2014 -34.607351 10.743027 -3.2214 0.0013471 **
## time2015 -33.102735 10.362360 -3.1945 0.0014765 **
## time2016 -32.716496 10.244192 -3.1937 0.0014808 **
## time2017 -33.074137 10.333101 -3.2008 0.0014453 **
## time2018 -33.195991 10.337344 -3.2113 0.0013945 **
## iis130 0.290764 0.098877 2.9407 0.0034054 **
## iis140 0.384907 0.092215 4.1740 3.451e-05 ***
## iis153 -0.308918 0.092651 -3.3342 0.0009098 ***
## iis170 -0.379565 0.091814 -4.1341 4.089e-05 ***
## iis171 0.390506 0.091877 4.2503 2.487e-05 ***
## iis194 0.274617 0.091866 2.9893 0.0029142 **
## iis379 -0.330873 0.098928 -3.3446 0.0008772 ***
## iis380 -1.006498 0.099048 -10.1617 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis383 0.261839 0.098724 2.6522 0.0082142 **
## iis384 0.816234 0.095990 8.5033 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis441 0.314643 0.092136 3.4150 0.0006824 ***
## iis485 -0.322129 0.091644 -3.5150 0.0004740 ***
## iis533 0.384083 0.091778 4.1849 3.294e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.1997 -0.200354 0.045728 -4.3814 1.399e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1994 -0.340947 0.069779 -4.8861 1.332e-06 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2001 0.203593 0.049354 4.1252 4.246e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -0.536052 0.069472 -7.7161 5.254e-14 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2017 0.349596 0.076749 4.5550 6.385e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 1.1233 1 0.2892170
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 13.6937 1 0.0002152 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.08797
## R-squared 0.99789
## Log-lik.(n=651) 693.68252
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1"
##
## Date: Thu Oct 13 21:14:21 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651
## Sample: 1 to 651
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## ar1 0.800393 0.020959 38.1881 < 2.2e-16 ***
## lgdp 19.406316 7.546876 2.5714 0.0103711 *
## lpop -20.154540 7.419912 -2.7163 0.0067953 **
## lgdp_sq -0.206707 0.091196 -2.2666 0.0237738 *
## idAustria -0.510391 0.057782 -8.8330 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -0.439816 0.049997 -8.7968 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -0.114210 0.026640 -4.2872 2.113e-05 ***
## idDenmark -0.280519 0.056642 -4.9525 9.576e-07 ***
## idFinland -0.426829 0.049353 -8.6484 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance -0.292893 0.037895 -7.7291 4.676e-14 ***
## idGermany 0.100816 0.027905 3.6128 0.0003287 ***
## idGreece -0.335312 0.040734 -8.2318 1.184e-15 ***
## idIreland -0.537525 0.060380 -8.9024 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly -0.085507 0.025594 -3.3409 0.0008876 ***
## idJapan 0.193068 0.031905 6.0513 2.552e-09 ***
## idLuxembourg -0.914055 0.112072 -8.1560 2.085e-15 ***
## idNetherlands -0.238229 0.034662 -6.8730 1.601e-11 ***
## idNewZealand -0.666576 0.074611 -8.9341 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -0.477160 0.053526 -8.9146 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -0.177788 0.029726 -5.9809 3.845e-09 ***
## idSweden -0.595858 0.066120 -9.0118 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -0.837556 0.091483 -9.1554 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom -0.062656 0.024657 -2.5411 0.0113049 *
## idUnitedStates 0.487072 0.058045 8.3913 3.553e-16 ***
## time1991 -26.312526 10.736803 -2.4507 0.0145472 *
## time1992 -25.884395 10.571383 -2.4485 0.0146334 *
## time1993 -25.487901 10.422105 -2.4456 0.0147534 *
## time1994 -25.210903 10.345409 -2.4369 0.0151071 *
## time1995 -25.373641 10.383082 -2.4437 0.0148269 *
## time1996 -25.451307 10.409189 -2.4451 0.0147728 *
## time1997 -25.622695 10.442492 -2.4537 0.0144272 *
## time1998 -25.147021 10.296587 -2.4423 0.0148873 *
## time1999 -25.558416 10.411825 -2.4547 0.0143855 *
## time2000 -26.124068 10.583391 -2.4684 0.0138537 *
## time2001 -25.814363 10.482847 -2.4625 0.0140801 *
## time2002 -25.828450 10.476519 -2.4654 0.0139704 *
## time2003 -26.946874 10.826424 -2.4890 0.0130847 *
## time2004 -27.885453 11.102703 -2.5116 0.0122843 *
## time2005 -28.753595 11.366662 -2.5296 0.0116766 *
## time2006 -29.463593 11.583425 -2.5436 0.0112253 *
## time2007 -30.143141 11.776121 -2.5597 0.0107244 *
## time2008 -30.391676 11.832420 -2.5685 0.0104581 *
## time2009 -29.225557 11.448083 -2.5529 0.0109338 *
## time2010 -30.199040 11.764549 -2.5670 0.0105047 *
## time2011 -30.882930 11.943010 -2.5859 0.0099518 **
## time2012 -30.774255 11.909341 -2.5840 0.0100037 *
## time2013 -30.701192 11.854974 -2.5897 0.0098418 **
## time2014 -30.351806 11.726349 -2.5883 0.0098811 **
## time2015 -28.978597 11.309681 -2.5623 0.0106454 *
## time2016 -28.636033 11.180497 -2.5612 0.0106767 *
## time2017 -28.967658 11.278055 -2.5685 0.0104585 *
## time2018 -29.092485 11.282954 -2.5784 0.0101654 *
## iis380 -0.961894 0.107345 -8.9608 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis383 0.515204 0.109282 4.7144 3.027e-06 ***
## iis384 0.803745 0.105532 7.6162 1.042e-13 ***
## fesisDenmark.1997 -0.248158 0.046616 -5.3234 1.449e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1994 -0.419534 0.074233 -5.6516 2.475e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002 0.272451 0.050953 5.3471 1.279e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -0.541590 0.076404 -7.0885 3.881e-12 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2017 0.343784 0.084367 4.0749 5.233e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 6.6105 1 0.01014 *
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 19.0890 1 1.248e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.09678
## R-squared 0.99740
## Log-lik.(n=651) 626.56146ETS (all phases)
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Mon Oct 17 19:50:55 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672
## Sample: 1 to 672
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp 0.8234069 0.2754712 2.9891 0.0029160 **
## lpop -0.3774376 0.2054775 -1.8369 0.0667364 .
## lgdp_sq -0.0129003 0.0052964 -2.4357 0.0151621 *
## EU_ETS_05 -0.0903488 0.0335397 -2.6938 0.0072679 **
## EU_ETS_08 -0.0510405 0.0361990 -1.4100 0.1590731
## EU_ETS_13 -0.1329779 0.0302322 -4.3986 1.296e-05 ***
## idAustria -2.5152373 0.1571402 -16.0063 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -1.8404860 0.1154148 -15.9467 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -0.1430239 0.0978285 -1.4620 0.1442837
## idDenmark -1.8527979 0.2344890 -7.9014 1.381e-14 ***
## idFinland -2.1334425 0.2332725 -9.1457 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance -0.9132199 0.2151961 -4.2437 2.558e-05 ***
## idGermany 1.2560991 0.2624546 4.7860 2.159e-06 ***
## idGreece -1.3721857 0.0958107 -14.3218 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -2.7739243 0.2760521 -10.0486 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly 0.2102183 0.2069965 1.0156 0.3102583
## idJapan 1.5096248 0.3379819 4.4666 9.548e-06 ***
## idLuxembourg -6.0826644 0.6956708 -8.7436 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands -1.0692063 0.0533775 -20.0310 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -3.8274622 0.2817346 -13.5853 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -2.0936932 0.1020251 -20.5214 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -0.4572476 0.1566194 -2.9195 0.0036416 **
## idSweden -2.9358521 0.1426624 -20.5790 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -4.3712026 0.1906712 -22.9253 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 0.6529795 0.2144730 3.0446 0.0024352 **
## idUnitedStates 3.4185946 0.4827376 7.0817 4.116e-12 ***
## time1990 5.3130886 4.4397081 1.1967 0.2319020
## time1991 5.3775464 4.4398726 1.2112 0.2263118
## time1992 5.3718366 4.4392927 1.2101 0.2267440
## time1993 5.3406504 4.4411852 1.2025 0.2296471
## time1994 5.3630283 4.4404978 1.2078 0.2276317
## time1995 5.3739466 4.4382461 1.2108 0.2264525
## time1996 5.3974646 4.4385675 1.2160 0.2244628
## time1997 5.4162489 4.4399528 1.2199 0.2230003
## time1998 5.4432211 4.4400283 1.2259 0.2207151
## time1999 5.4515348 4.4399969 1.2278 0.2200085
## time2000 5.4602472 4.4412751 1.2294 0.2194057
## time2001 5.5098353 4.4420381 1.2404 0.2153322
## time2002 5.5280906 4.4405862 1.2449 0.2136683
## time2003 5.5440744 4.4375474 1.2494 0.2120364
## time2004 5.5397155 4.4351213 1.2491 0.2121458
## time2005 5.5982725 4.4363224 1.2619 0.2074831
## time2006 5.6061615 4.4358087 1.2638 0.2067918
## time2007 5.5697917 4.4336129 1.2563 0.2095232
## time2008 5.5499815 4.4293608 1.2530 0.2107086
## time2009 5.5052901 4.4325324 1.2420 0.2147289
## time2010 5.5443923 4.4318941 1.2510 0.2114286
## time2011 5.4623951 4.4302394 1.2330 0.2180803
## time2012 5.4632021 4.4318093 1.2327 0.2181752
## time2013 5.4913597 4.4316666 1.2391 0.2158003
## time2014 5.4103992 4.4320441 1.2207 0.2226758
## time2015 5.3956086 4.4355895 1.2164 0.2243113
## time2016 5.3907577 4.4348382 1.2155 0.2246492
## time2017 5.4135609 4.4343191 1.2208 0.2226430
## time2018 5.3487621 4.4333075 1.2065 0.2281161
## time2019 5.2603856 4.4342543 1.1863 0.2359844
## time2020 5.1540505 4.4355757 1.1620 0.2457190
## time2021 5.1862812 4.4328147 1.1700 0.2424892
## iis181 0.2855586 0.1079166 2.6461 0.0083623 **
## iis407 0.9016079 0.1255388 7.1819 2.106e-12 ***
## iis408 0.8940367 0.1252087 7.1404 2.783e-12 ***
## iis409 0.8218400 0.1248766 6.5812 1.041e-10 ***
## iis410 0.8634788 0.1248301 6.9172 1.215e-11 ***
## iis411 0.5823357 0.1246603 4.6714 3.718e-06 ***
## iis414 -0.8579414 0.1088862 -7.8792 1.622e-14 ***
## iis415 -1.9279337 0.1085628 -17.7587 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416 -1.8356131 0.1080981 -16.9810 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417 -1.5653750 0.1080997 -14.4808 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418 -1.0350065 0.1079959 -9.5838 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisCanada.2005 -0.1525704 0.0404316 -3.7735 0.0001774 ***
## fesisAustria.2015 0.1904556 0.0445736 4.2728 2.254e-05 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001 -0.2326178 0.0386811 -6.0137 3.201e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.1999 -0.2873749 0.0582101 -4.9369 1.038e-06 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004 -0.2724796 0.0539979 -5.0461 6.033e-07 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017 -0.5585813 0.0541478 -10.3159 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSpain.1999 0.2077676 0.0424275 4.8970 1.262e-06 ***
## fesisFrance.2005 0.1862791 0.0387614 4.8058 1.963e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.1997 -0.1699793 0.0474943 -3.5789 0.0003737 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4251989 0.0495936 -8.5737 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997 0.2547159 0.0819548 3.1080 0.0019753 **
## fesisLuxembourg.2013 -0.3818983 0.0693727 -5.5050 5.538e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016 -0.7781807 0.0735477 -10.5806 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2013 0.3011498 0.0411307 7.3218 8.167e-13 ***
## fesisSweden.2016 0.1842093 0.0482645 3.8167 0.0001497 ***
## fesisJapan.2011 0.3406112 0.0480344 7.0910 3.869e-12 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998 0.1740664 0.0461349 3.7730 0.0001778 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016 0.1405722 0.0518155 2.7129 0.0068660 **
## fesisNewZealand.1997 0.4988985 0.0504739 9.8843 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2010 -0.2678313 0.0478333 -5.5993 3.318e-08 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 124.469 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 40.438 1 2.029e-10 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.09921
## R-squared 0.99739
## Log-lik.(n=672) 643.61170
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Mon Oct 17 19:51:13 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672
## Sample: 1 to 672
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp 0.4873621 0.2870220 1.6980 0.09003 .
## lpop 0.1554354 0.2228043 0.6976 0.48568
## lgdp_sq -0.0101027 0.0055392 -1.8239 0.06867 .
## EU_ETS_05 -0.0486565 0.0395637 -1.2298 0.21924
## EU_ETS_08 -0.0614412 0.0440583 -1.3945 0.16367
## EU_ETS_13 -0.1427682 0.0346720 -4.1177 4.363e-05 ***
## idAustria -2.3106813 0.1721143 -13.4253 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -1.9302463 0.1239198 -15.5766 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -0.5415688 0.0895193 -6.0497 2.552e-09 ***
## idDenmark -1.5827927 0.2550194 -6.2066 1.010e-09 ***
## idFinland -1.8210035 0.2540093 -7.1690 2.225e-12 ***
## idFrance -1.3857181 0.2165131 -6.4002 3.127e-10 ***
## idGermany 0.6059795 0.2622086 2.3111 0.02117 *
## idGreece -1.4415572 0.1039709 -13.8650 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -2.3674263 0.2999684 -7.8923 1.411e-14 ***
## idItaly -0.3566389 0.2062527 -1.7291 0.08430 .
## idJapan 0.8488333 0.3351509 2.5327 0.01157 *
## idLuxembourg -3.9982167 0.7489190 -5.3387 1.329e-07 ***
## idNetherlands -1.1256847 0.0567891 -19.8222 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -3.4914120 0.3035001 -11.5038 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -2.1594266 0.1105114 -19.5403 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -0.8142866 0.1604772 -5.0742 5.195e-07 ***
## idSweden -2.7531517 0.1558731 -17.6628 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -4.0713997 0.2099192 -19.3951 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom -0.0118547 0.2087043 -0.0568 0.95472
## idUnitedStates 2.3529493 0.4899965 4.8020 1.986e-06 ***
## time1990 3.5183805 4.8316997 0.7282 0.46678
## time1991 3.5843114 4.8319335 0.7418 0.45850
## time1992 3.5837775 4.8312889 0.7418 0.45851
## time1993 3.5394463 4.8335923 0.7323 0.46430
## time1994 3.5591921 4.8327939 0.7365 0.46173
## time1995 3.5947695 4.8286999 0.7445 0.45689
## time1996 3.6336459 4.8290061 0.7525 0.45207
## time1997 3.6364835 4.8308165 0.7528 0.45188
## time1998 3.6717006 4.8311258 0.7600 0.44755
## time1999 3.6772233 4.8311333 0.7612 0.44687
## time2000 3.6750373 4.8327032 0.7605 0.44728
## time2001 3.7104398 4.8336592 0.7676 0.44301
## time2002 3.7429524 4.8320384 0.7746 0.43887
## time2003 3.7914086 4.8281525 0.7853 0.43260
## time2004 3.8202051 4.8250564 0.7917 0.42882
## time2005 3.8565305 4.8267091 0.7990 0.42461
## time2006 3.8717926 4.8260065 0.8023 0.42271
## time2007 3.8559393 4.8232465 0.7994 0.42435
## time2008 3.8545339 4.8192380 0.7998 0.42413
## time2009 3.7894442 4.8230255 0.7857 0.43235
## time2010 3.8173754 4.8229798 0.7915 0.42897
## time2011 3.7645246 4.8209313 0.7809 0.43519
## time2012 3.7548299 4.8228086 0.7786 0.43655
## time2013 3.7932149 4.8233101 0.7864 0.43192
## time2014 3.7121781 4.8237071 0.7696 0.44186
## time2015 3.6822311 4.8280991 0.7627 0.44596
## time2016 3.6996355 4.8282154 0.7663 0.44383
## time2017 3.7297812 4.8275710 0.7726 0.44006
## time2018 3.6739865 4.8262995 0.7612 0.44681
## time2019 3.5804238 4.8274055 0.7417 0.45857
## time2020 3.4678647 4.8289381 0.7181 0.47295
## time2021 3.5200465 4.8255816 0.7295 0.46601
## iis414 -0.8309245 0.1334044 -6.2286 8.847e-10 ***
## iis415 -1.9097855 0.1332009 -14.3376 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416 -1.8049667 0.1328586 -13.5856 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417 -1.5372891 0.1328689 -11.5700 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418 -0.9975797 0.1328253 -7.5105 2.142e-13 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004 -0.4858436 0.0495974 -9.7958 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017 -0.5859611 0.0672531 -8.7128 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.5339386 0.0588780 -9.0686 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995 -0.5836511 0.0742483 -7.8608 1.773e-14 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013 -0.3643730 0.0850583 -4.2838 2.139e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016 -0.8331121 0.0908952 -9.1656 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2013 0.2731869 0.0507450 5.3835 1.049e-07 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997 0.3755901 0.0591933 6.3451 4.376e-10 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 231.41 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 64.08 1 1.221e-15 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.12380
## R-squared 0.99581
## Log-lik.(n=672) 485.82637ETS (individual)
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_08"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Mon Oct 17 00:45:37 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672
## Sample: 1 to 672
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp -0.1417021 0.2576221 -0.5500 0.5825012
## lpop -0.0162299 0.1979340 -0.0820 0.9346772
## lgdp_sq 0.0040696 0.0050383 0.8077 0.4195747
## EU_ETS_08 -0.0526156 0.0236872 -2.2213 0.0267113 *
## idAustria -2.2284640 0.1519158 -14.6691 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -1.6590797 0.1125931 -14.7352 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -0.3312617 0.0958701 -3.4553 0.0005891 ***
## idDenmark -1.5750354 0.2253224 -6.9901 7.453e-12 ***
## idFinland -1.7623751 0.2256713 -7.8095 2.636e-14 ***
## idFrance -1.2345589 0.2076504 -5.9454 4.723e-09 ***
## idGermany 0.7413263 0.2496661 2.9693 0.0031063 **
## idGreece -1.2595843 0.0943764 -13.3464 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -2.3379872 0.2668942 -8.7600 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly -0.1827877 0.1974197 -0.9259 0.3548851
## idJapan 0.8826502 0.3221518 2.7399 0.0063325 **
## idLuxembourg -5.0356614 0.6719484 -7.4941 2.455e-13 ***
## idNetherlands -1.0100761 0.0544455 -18.5521 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -3.4297387 0.2724774 -12.5872 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -1.9740448 0.1003114 -19.6792 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -0.7176795 0.1517124 -4.7305 2.805e-06 ***
## idSweden -2.6813992 0.1369908 -19.5736 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -4.0237828 0.1831835 -21.9659 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 0.2801892 0.2063561 1.3578 0.1750479
## idUnitedStates 2.4765174 0.4598665 5.3853 1.046e-07 ***
## time1990 12.9480429 4.3790720 2.9568 0.0032328 **
## time1991 13.0105746 4.3792239 2.9710 0.0030894 **
## time1992 13.0059655 4.3785500 2.9704 0.0030953 **
## time1993 12.9676324 4.3806310 2.9602 0.0031977 **
## time1994 12.9929015 4.3798167 2.9665 0.0031336 **
## time1995 13.0113769 4.3772738 2.9725 0.0030745 **
## time1996 13.0293682 4.3776031 2.9764 0.0030364 **
## time1997 13.0524839 4.3787868 2.9808 0.0029930 **
## time1998 13.0769613 4.3788727 2.9864 0.0029402 **
## time1999 13.0725722 4.3788688 2.9854 0.0029497 **
## time2000 13.0758157 4.3802793 2.9852 0.0029518 **
## time2001 13.1253228 4.3810676 2.9959 0.0028511 **
## time2002 13.1458182 4.3794907 3.0017 0.0027985 **
## time2003 13.1714031 4.3760718 3.0099 0.0027252 **
## time2004 13.1784535 4.3733677 3.0133 0.0026947 **
## time2005 13.1741691 4.3729619 3.0126 0.0027008 **
## time2006 13.1823910 4.3723676 3.0149 0.0026808 **
## time2007 13.1498253 4.3699481 3.0091 0.0027316 **
## time2008 13.1315003 4.3682807 3.0061 0.0027587 **
## time2009 13.0804706 4.3716727 2.9921 0.0028865 **
## time2010 13.1052844 4.3716565 2.9978 0.0028339 **
## time2011 13.0407109 4.3698566 2.9842 0.0029605 **
## time2012 13.0146898 4.3715835 2.9771 0.0030291 **
## time2013 12.9642080 4.3709343 2.9660 0.0031390 **
## time2014 12.8692976 4.3713932 2.9440 0.0033677 **
## time2015 12.8730428 4.3750267 2.9424 0.0033848 **
## time2016 12.8854390 4.3749743 2.9453 0.0033540 **
## time2017 12.8814514 4.3744599 2.9447 0.0033601 **
## time2018 12.8168610 4.3733548 2.9307 0.0035132 **
## time2019 12.7065424 4.3741239 2.9049 0.0038109 **
## time2020 12.5981145 4.3755078 2.8792 0.0041310 **
## time2021 12.6336272 4.3725379 2.8893 0.0040027 **
## iis181 0.4034262 0.1107158 3.6438 0.0002923 ***
## iis407 0.8463228 0.1314046 6.4406 2.470e-10 ***
## iis408 0.8496428 0.1311313 6.4793 1.945e-10 ***
## iis409 0.7911553 0.1308530 6.0461 2.633e-09 ***
## iis410 0.8394462 0.1308255 6.4165 2.864e-10 ***
## iis411 0.5680494 0.1306751 4.3470 1.625e-05 ***
## iis414 -0.9101513 0.1137155 -8.0038 6.434e-15 ***
## iis415 -1.9774081 0.1134110 -17.4358 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416 -1.8640745 0.1129968 -16.4967 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417 -1.5981111 0.1129935 -14.1434 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418 -1.0707953 0.1128938 -9.4850 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001 -0.2567053 0.0402056 -6.3848 3.478e-10 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2019 0.4017014 0.0658204 6.1030 1.886e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004 -0.4046499 0.0442661 -9.1413 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015 -0.5551857 0.0518498 -10.7076 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSpain.1999 0.1554019 0.0434626 3.5755 0.0003781 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.1997 -0.2036803 0.0494167 -4.1217 4.300e-05 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4876632 0.0509935 -9.5632 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997 0.2880158 0.0854287 3.3714 0.0007967 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013 -0.4235116 0.0717981 -5.8986 6.177e-09 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016 -0.7930651 0.0766351 -10.3486 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014 0.2638662 0.0440559 5.9893 3.664e-09 ***
## fesisJapan.2012 0.4746473 0.0478482 9.9199 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998 0.1994552 0.0475532 4.1944 3.157e-05 ***
## fesisAustralia.2015 0.2066315 0.0504395 4.0966 4.778e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997 0.4795784 0.0506156 9.4749 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 153.867 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 46.318 1 1.006e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.10401
## R-squared 0.99709
## Log-lik.(n=672) 608.36104
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Mon Oct 17 00:50:13 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672
## Sample: 1 to 672
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp 0.0846298 0.2551770 0.3317 0.7402704
## lpop 0.0316762 0.1993696 0.1589 0.8738164
## lgdp_sq -0.0010434 0.0050138 -0.2081 0.8352111
## EU_ETS_13 -0.1223941 0.0270058 -4.5321 7.074e-06 ***
## idAustria -2.2538962 0.1542014 -14.6166 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -1.6507445 0.1135951 -14.5318 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -0.3307920 0.0974298 -3.3952 0.0007320 ***
## idDenmark -1.4101960 0.2284516 -6.1728 1.249e-09 ***
## idFinland -1.7475659 0.2281052 -7.6612 7.611e-14 ***
## idFrance -1.2168671 0.2099186 -5.7969 1.102e-08 ***
## idGermany 0.7685853 0.2524189 3.0449 0.0024317 **
## idGreece -1.2792570 0.0961422 -13.3059 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -2.3160083 0.2697749 -8.5850 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly -0.1745125 0.1994836 -0.8748 0.3820277
## idJapan 0.9166750 0.3274319 2.7996 0.0052845 **
## idLuxembourg -4.9568954 0.6796000 -7.2938 9.768e-13 ***
## idNetherlands -1.0027349 0.0549195 -18.2583 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -3.4218048 0.2763128 -12.3838 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -1.9956539 0.1022568 -19.5161 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -0.7306771 0.1531530 -4.7709 2.315e-06 ***
## idSweden -2.6911047 0.1401700 -19.1989 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -3.9614877 0.1836469 -21.5712 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 0.2418112 0.2066552 1.1701 0.2424263
## idUnitedStates 2.5406792 0.4653449 5.4598 7.036e-08 ***
## time1990 9.7382141 4.4205776 2.2029 0.0279863 *
## time1991 9.8021128 4.4207633 2.2173 0.0269843 *
## time1992 9.8002062 4.4201085 2.2172 0.0269913 *
## time1993 9.7587990 4.4222289 2.2068 0.0277158 *
## time1994 9.7869637 4.4214256 2.2135 0.0272435 *
## time1995 9.8122343 4.4188785 2.2205 0.0267628 *
## time1996 9.8501356 4.4191928 2.2289 0.0261941 *
## time1997 9.8420338 4.4198828 2.2268 0.0263404 *
## time1998 9.8695530 4.4198537 2.2330 0.0259236 *
## time1999 9.8891067 4.4202541 2.2372 0.0256448 *
## time2000 9.8904393 4.4216964 2.2368 0.0256730 *
## time2001 9.9395115 4.4224904 2.2475 0.0249779 *
## time2002 9.9636517 4.4209273 2.2537 0.0245789 *
## time2003 9.9977091 4.4175079 2.2632 0.0239864 *
## time2004 10.0054302 4.4148409 2.2663 0.0237939 *
## time2005 10.0033924 4.4144594 2.2661 0.0238103 *
## time2006 10.0142995 4.4138902 2.2688 0.0236406 *
## time2007 9.9793032 4.4115933 2.2621 0.0240571 *
## time2008 9.9273919 4.4103414 2.2509 0.0247576 *
## time2009 9.8713366 4.4137738 2.2365 0.0256936 *
## time2010 9.8973825 4.4137812 2.2424 0.0253080 *
## time2011 9.8170870 4.4121647 2.2250 0.0264589 *
## time2012 9.8114566 4.4138803 2.2229 0.0266038 *
## time2013 9.8478699 4.4150090 2.2305 0.0260872 *
## time2014 9.7521331 4.4154577 2.2086 0.0275844 *
## time2015 9.7247981 4.4192939 2.2005 0.0281566 *
## time2016 9.7300491 4.4188628 2.2019 0.0280568 *
## time2017 9.7552365 4.4183046 2.2079 0.0276348 *
## time2018 9.6939510 4.4172214 2.1946 0.0285833 *
## time2019 9.6019820 4.4182531 2.1733 0.0301590 *
## time2020 9.4921319 4.4196617 2.1477 0.0321445 *
## time2021 9.5337712 4.4166943 2.1586 0.0312863 *
## iis407 0.8635937 0.1322430 6.5304 1.419e-10 ***
## iis408 0.8658608 0.1319737 6.5609 1.173e-10 ***
## iis409 0.8055325 0.1316988 6.1165 1.744e-09 ***
## iis410 0.8566105 0.1316717 6.5057 1.654e-10 ***
## iis411 0.5831917 0.1315221 4.4342 1.103e-05 ***
## iis414 -0.8758234 0.1144505 -7.6524 8.101e-14 ***
## iis415 -1.9462411 0.1141394 -17.0514 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416 -1.8561054 0.1137602 -16.3160 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417 -1.5894021 0.1137667 -13.9707 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418 -1.0620971 0.1136730 -9.3434 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustria.2015 0.1751668 0.0469274 3.7327 0.0002078 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001 -0.2554357 0.0405036 -6.3065 5.606e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.1999 -0.3237693 0.0601552 -5.3822 1.064e-07 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004 -0.2792991 0.0568015 -4.9171 1.141e-06 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017 -0.5626952 0.0570849 -9.8572 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSpain.1999 0.1614567 0.0437080 3.6940 0.0002413 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.1999 -0.1441167 0.0460136 -3.1320 0.0018221 **
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4684268 0.0525436 -8.9150 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997 0.2729654 0.0859931 3.1743 0.0015805 **
## fesisLuxembourg.2013 -0.3897209 0.0730373 -5.3359 1.358e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016 -0.8029273 0.0772684 -10.3914 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014 0.2932791 0.0448230 6.5431 1.311e-10 ***
## fesisSweden.2016 0.1498471 0.0505054 2.9670 0.0031297 **
## fesisJapan.2011 0.4216090 0.0480553 8.7734 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998 0.1456007 0.0535471 2.7191 0.0067387 **
## fesisAustralia.2007 0.1816116 0.0483269 3.7580 0.0001883 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997 0.4623200 0.0504534 9.1633 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 147.451 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 63.431 1 1.665e-15 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.10471
## R-squared 0.99706
## Log-lik.(n=672) 604.37013
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_05"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Mon Oct 17 19:09:13 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672
## Sample: 1 to 672
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp 0.0039745 0.2656251 0.0150 0.9880668
## lpop -0.2566884 0.2071683 -1.2390 0.2158251
## lgdp_sq 0.0022435 0.0051326 0.4371 0.6621967
## EU_ETS_05 -0.0816047 0.0242449 -3.3659 0.0008126 ***
## idAustria -2.3754454 0.1574640 -15.0856 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -1.9226744 0.1131683 -16.9895 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -0.2286721 0.0984204 -2.3234 0.0204949 *
## idDenmark -1.8264696 0.2346455 -7.7840 3.159e-14 ***
## idFinland -1.9936072 0.2341914 -8.5127 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance -1.0614331 0.2142989 -4.9530 9.549e-07 ***
## idGermany 1.0443146 0.2601329 4.0145 6.723e-05 ***
## idGreece -1.3187324 0.0961304 -13.7182 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -2.6167998 0.2771431 -9.4421 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly 0.0617652 0.2059362 0.2999 0.7643406
## idJapan 1.2469578 0.3337515 3.7362 0.0002050 ***
## idLuxembourg -5.0048665 0.6990149 -7.1599 2.408e-12 ***
## idNetherlands -1.0342678 0.0554634 -18.6477 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -3.7167795 0.2820491 -13.1778 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -2.0386280 0.1021808 -19.9512 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -0.5500175 0.1577354 -3.4870 0.0005248 ***
## idSweden -2.8130614 0.1420743 -19.7999 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -4.2547404 0.1926388 -22.0866 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 0.5059677 0.2142345 2.3617 0.0185124 *
## idUnitedStates 3.0108143 0.4779097 6.3000 5.819e-10 ***
## time1990 14.3845112 4.4488025 3.2333 0.0012917 **
## time1991 14.4476668 4.4490689 3.2473 0.0012308 **
## time1992 14.4387495 4.4485534 3.2457 0.0012378 **
## time1993 14.4073390 4.4506213 3.2372 0.0012749 **
## time1994 14.4174484 4.4499678 3.2399 0.0012629 **
## time1995 14.4402468 4.4472959 3.2470 0.0012324 **
## time1996 14.4586822 4.4476413 3.2509 0.0012160 **
## time1997 14.4830077 4.4488468 3.2555 0.0011969 **
## time1998 14.5075777 4.4489529 3.2609 0.0011745 **
## time1999 14.5013448 4.4489679 3.2595 0.0011803 **
## time2000 14.5080137 4.4503804 3.2599 0.0011784 **
## time2001 14.5459191 4.4512693 3.2678 0.0011467 **
## time2002 14.5631853 4.4497177 3.2728 0.0011269 **
## time2003 14.5810822 4.4463503 3.2793 0.0011017 **
## time2004 14.5787296 4.4437033 3.2808 0.0010962 **
## time2005 14.6246740 4.4434844 3.2913 0.0010568 **
## time2006 14.6318152 4.4429175 3.2933 0.0010494 **
## time2007 14.5948175 4.4405345 3.2867 0.0010737 **
## time2008 14.5370246 4.4392857 3.2746 0.0011199 **
## time2009 14.4919070 4.4426841 3.2620 0.0011701 **
## time2010 14.5170298 4.4426843 3.2676 0.0011474 **
## time2011 14.4497807 4.4409039 3.2538 0.0012037 **
## time2012 14.4447440 4.4426266 3.2514 0.0012137 **
## time2013 14.3938268 4.4419795 3.2404 0.0012607 **
## time2014 14.2985289 4.4424594 3.2186 0.0013587 **
## time2015 14.2811800 4.4461403 3.2120 0.0013896 **
## time2016 14.2762110 4.4458687 3.2111 0.0013940 **
## time2017 14.2714441 4.4453760 3.2104 0.0013974 **
## time2018 14.2052847 4.4442914 3.1963 0.0014663 **
## time2019 14.1364351 4.4452766 3.1801 0.0015493 **
## time2020 14.0311182 4.4467507 3.1554 0.0016845 **
## time2021 14.0555280 4.4437452 3.1630 0.0016417 **
## iis181 0.3959398 0.1118600 3.5396 0.0004323 ***
## iis414 -0.9407783 0.1148874 -8.1887 1.634e-15 ***
## iis415 -2.0068808 0.1145831 -17.5146 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416 -1.8933566 0.1141689 -16.5838 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417 -1.6257628 0.1141507 -14.2423 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418 -1.0844171 0.1140798 -9.5058 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis619 -0.4281181 0.1151689 -3.7173 0.0002205 ***
## iis620 -0.4488667 0.1151836 -3.8970 0.0001085 ***
## iis621 -0.3140822 0.1151764 -2.7270 0.0065817 **
## fesisSwitzerland.2016 0.3252205 0.0503035 6.4652 2.120e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004 -0.3152794 0.0489461 -6.4414 2.456e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012 -0.3804190 0.0559407 -6.8004 2.559e-11 ***
## fesisSpain.1999 0.1964226 0.0442671 4.4372 1.087e-05 ***
## fesisFrance.2005 0.1532733 0.0404016 3.7937 0.0001637 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.1997 -0.1837951 0.0499844 -3.6770 0.0002575 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4577310 0.0516289 -8.8658 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995 -0.7818678 0.0906810 -8.6222 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997 0.3256873 0.0863412 3.7721 0.0001782 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013 -0.4170632 0.0724988 -5.7527 1.410e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016 -0.7619650 0.0775351 -9.8274 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014 0.2865852 0.0445025 6.4398 2.480e-10 ***
## fesisJapan.2012 0.4830469 0.0467429 10.3341 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998 0.2098304 0.0482186 4.3517 1.592e-05 ***
## fesisAustralia.2015 0.2377768 0.0510245 4.6600 3.910e-06 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997 0.4910132 0.0514839 9.5372 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 150.215 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 47.986 1 4.293e-12 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.10509
## R-squared 0.99703
## Log-lik.(n=672) 600.94762ETS (pairs)
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Mon Oct 17 00:55:06 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672
## Sample: 1 to 672
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp 0.6947671 0.2745520 2.5305 0.0116491 *
## lpop -0.1521915 0.1982275 -0.7678 0.4429381
## lgdp_sq -0.0112513 0.0053046 -2.1210 0.0343396 *
## EU_ETS_08 -0.0875924 0.0279653 -3.1322 0.0018217 **
## EU_ETS_13 -0.1313350 0.0304214 -4.3172 1.855e-05 ***
## idAustria -2.3566489 0.1526363 -15.4396 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -1.7271893 0.1123416 -15.3744 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -0.2940143 0.0954449 -3.0805 0.0021637 **
## idDenmark -1.6090796 0.2269257 -7.0908 3.854e-12 ***
## idFinland -1.8962219 0.2260617 -8.3881 3.700e-16 ***
## idFrance -1.1090249 0.2086338 -5.3157 1.513e-07 ***
## idGermany 0.9807747 0.2530802 3.8754 0.0001185 ***
## idGreece -1.2961358 0.0941366 -13.7687 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -2.4914069 0.2673665 -9.3183 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly -0.0079917 0.1996379 -0.0400 0.9680820
## idJapan 1.1765504 0.3271589 3.5963 0.0003500 ***
## idLuxembourg -5.3655809 0.6731259 -7.9711 8.254e-15 ***
## idNetherlands -1.0277877 0.0532801 -19.2903 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -3.5499957 0.2732228 -12.9930 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -2.0120510 0.1001568 -20.0890 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -0.6160122 0.1519279 -4.0546 5.700e-05 ***
## idSweden -2.7919729 0.1386513 -20.1366 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -4.1466921 0.1837679 -22.5648 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 0.4356260 0.2076822 2.0976 0.0363717 *
## idUnitedStates 2.9338584 0.4659352 6.2967 5.967e-10 ***
## time1990 3.8071425 4.4418093 0.8571 0.3917316
## time1991 3.8709191 4.4419459 0.8714 0.3838672
## time1992 3.8662459 4.4413562 0.8705 0.3843781
## time1993 3.8308954 4.4432028 0.8622 0.3889344
## time1994 3.8550013 4.4425165 0.8678 0.3858855
## time1995 3.8707877 4.4402885 0.8717 0.3837059
## time1996 3.8940204 4.4405968 0.8769 0.3808928
## time1997 3.9094204 4.4419369 0.8801 0.3791572
## time1998 3.9330549 4.4419169 0.8854 0.3762821
## time1999 3.9418242 4.4418787 0.8874 0.3752154
## time2000 3.9475238 4.4431203 0.8885 0.3746592
## time2001 3.9964429 4.4438665 0.8993 0.3688534
## time2002 4.0170830 4.4424165 0.9043 0.3662311
## time2003 4.0393867 4.4394057 0.9099 0.3632527
## time2004 4.0372349 4.4369953 0.9099 0.3632478
## time2005 4.0333373 4.4366402 0.9091 0.3636725
## time2006 4.0419604 4.4361124 0.9111 0.3625914
## time2007 4.0091454 4.4339213 0.9042 0.3662617
## time2008 4.0168365 4.4307249 0.9066 0.3649980
## time2009 3.9592395 4.4340269 0.8929 0.3722656
## time2010 3.9969551 4.4334032 0.9016 0.3676639
## time2011 3.9158270 4.4317638 0.8836 0.3772842
## time2012 3.9137550 4.4333016 0.8828 0.3777019
## time2013 3.9560592 4.4336068 0.8923 0.3726042
## time2014 3.8599236 4.4340284 0.8705 0.3843711
## time2015 3.8649676 4.4374665 0.8710 0.3841189
## time2016 3.8679197 4.4371219 0.8717 0.3837191
## time2017 3.8646153 4.4366567 0.8711 0.3840755
## time2018 3.8009841 4.4356329 0.8569 0.3918392
## time2019 3.7108261 4.4365536 0.8364 0.4032591
## time2020 3.6025806 4.4378529 0.8118 0.4172449
## time2021 3.6386769 4.4351023 0.8204 0.4123064
## iis181 0.2873854 0.1096851 2.6201 0.0090184 **
## iis407 0.8959840 0.1275626 7.0239 6.006e-12 ***
## iis408 0.8901838 0.1272403 6.9961 7.214e-12 ***
## iis409 0.8198687 0.1269147 6.4600 2.202e-10 ***
## iis410 0.8639732 0.1268711 6.8098 2.426e-11 ***
## iis411 0.5834265 0.1267026 4.6047 5.069e-06 ***
## iis414 -0.8498296 0.1105784 -7.6853 6.461e-14 ***
## iis415 -1.9177969 0.1102461 -17.3956 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416 -1.8247909 0.1097751 -16.6230 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417 -1.5561242 0.1097947 -14.1730 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418 -1.0273974 0.1097062 -9.3650 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustria.2015 0.1792023 0.0453657 3.9502 8.761e-05 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001 -0.2426647 0.0391339 -6.2009 1.060e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.1999 -0.2845554 0.0591613 -4.8098 1.923e-06 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004 -0.2312506 0.0561249 -4.1203 4.329e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015 -0.5290335 0.0508416 -10.4055 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSpain.1999 0.1901515 0.0426700 4.4563 9.991e-06 ***
## fesisFrance.2009 0.1631529 0.0392207 4.1599 3.661e-05 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.1997 -0.1712095 0.0481262 -3.5575 0.0004047 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4419046 0.0503180 -8.7822 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997 0.2425086 0.0831006 2.9183 0.0036550 **
## fesisLuxembourg.2013 -0.4029179 0.0704794 -5.7168 1.730e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016 -0.7893930 0.0744641 -10.6010 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014 0.3032950 0.0433780 6.9919 7.415e-12 ***
## fesisSweden.2016 0.1671290 0.0489146 3.4167 0.0006776 ***
## fesisJapan.2011 0.3669851 0.0483321 7.5930 1.240e-13 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998 0.2283784 0.0453920 5.0312 6.490e-07 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997 0.5145246 0.0509178 10.1050 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2010 -0.2473600 0.0475780 -5.1990 2.772e-07 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 132.302 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 42.421 1 7.358e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.10084
## R-squared 0.99729
## Log-lik.(n=672) 631.17691
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Mon Oct 17 19:32:20 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672
## Sample: 1 to 672
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp -0.5266446 0.3167767 -1.6625 0.0969424 .
## lpop -0.1618734 0.2086432 -0.7758 0.4381558
## lgdp_sq 0.0122828 0.0060762 2.0215 0.0436844 *
## EU_ETS_05 -0.0994579 0.0353355 -2.8147 0.0050460 **
## EU_ETS_08 -0.0347965 0.0336418 -1.0343 0.3014085
## idAustria -2.3090771 0.1583005 -14.5867 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -1.7242078 0.1169661 -14.7411 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -0.2527970 0.0993385 -2.5448 0.0111879 *
## idDenmark -1.7186321 0.2362931 -7.2733 1.123e-12 ***
## idFinland -1.8870045 0.2359969 -7.9959 6.834e-15 ***
## idFrance -1.2069723 0.2187542 -5.5175 5.157e-08 ***
## idGermany 0.8430699 0.2677266 3.1490 0.0017213 **
## idGreece -1.2798720 0.0964299 -13.2726 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -2.4933805 0.2790771 -8.9344 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly -0.0855649 0.2106439 -0.4062 0.6847385
## idJapan 0.9664920 0.3455572 2.7969 0.0053279 **
## idLuxembourg -4.7334882 0.7006940 -6.7554 3.426e-11 ***
## idNetherlands -1.0343618 0.0541019 -19.1188 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -3.5954703 0.2831669 -12.6974 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -1.9966636 0.1025701 -19.4663 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -0.6303054 0.1589079 -3.9665 8.192e-05 ***
## idSweden -2.7867726 0.1445394 -19.2804 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -4.1813541 0.1923943 -21.7333 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 0.3756575 0.2177112 1.7255 0.0849645 .
## idUnitedStates 2.6572207 0.4906497 5.4157 8.903e-08 ***
## time1990 19.8150849 4.7032877 4.2130 2.915e-05 ***
## time1991 19.8770351 4.7033645 4.2261 2.755e-05 ***
## time1992 19.8673348 4.7027782 4.2246 2.773e-05 ***
## time1993 19.8351464 4.7045690 4.2161 2.876e-05 ***
## time1994 19.8449806 4.7039199 4.2188 2.843e-05 ***
## time1995 19.8666132 4.7013123 4.2258 2.759e-05 ***
## time1996 19.8843728 4.7015617 4.2293 2.717e-05 ***
## time1997 19.9125475 4.7028457 4.2341 2.661e-05 ***
## time1998 19.9391236 4.7031028 4.2396 2.600e-05 ***
## time1999 19.9337660 4.7031178 4.2384 2.613e-05 ***
## time2000 19.9395364 4.7042944 4.2386 2.611e-05 ***
## time2001 19.9892091 4.7049998 4.2485 2.501e-05 ***
## time2002 20.0048501 4.7033440 4.2533 2.449e-05 ***
## time2003 20.0214641 4.7000757 4.2598 2.381e-05 ***
## time2004 20.0204568 4.6973293 4.2621 2.358e-05 ***
## time2005 20.0941272 4.7025177 4.2731 2.248e-05 ***
## time2006 20.0998808 4.7018075 4.2749 2.230e-05 ***
## time2007 20.0606824 4.6993296 4.2688 2.290e-05 ***
## time2008 20.0255584 4.6957787 4.2646 2.333e-05 ***
## time2009 19.9811832 4.6989711 4.2522 2.461e-05 ***
## time2010 20.0050504 4.6988033 4.2575 2.406e-05 ***
## time2011 19.9356685 4.6968973 4.2444 2.546e-05 ***
## time2012 19.9142052 4.6985238 4.2384 2.613e-05 ***
## time2013 19.8622155 4.6978456 4.2279 2.733e-05 ***
## time2014 19.7667274 4.6982005 4.2073 2.987e-05 ***
## time2015 19.7879554 4.7018887 4.2085 2.972e-05 ***
## time2016 19.7822608 4.7014583 4.2077 2.982e-05 ***
## time2017 19.7760742 4.7008167 4.2069 2.992e-05 ***
## time2018 19.7080635 4.6995809 4.1936 3.168e-05 ***
## time2019 19.6003974 4.7003491 4.1700 3.504e-05 ***
## time2020 19.4942567 4.7016376 4.1463 3.876e-05 ***
## time2021 19.5226330 4.6986219 4.1550 3.736e-05 ***
## iis181 0.4041521 0.1078438 3.7476 0.0001961 ***
## iis414 -0.9551345 0.1113307 -8.5793 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis415 -2.0228128 0.1110561 -18.2143 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416 -1.9070002 0.1105579 -17.2489 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417 -1.6414228 0.1106016 -14.8409 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418 -1.1125809 0.1105106 -10.0676 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisCanada.2005 -0.1529373 0.0442790 -3.4539 0.0005921 ***
## fesisUnitedStates.2005 -0.1550313 0.0516504 -3.0016 0.0027998 **
## fesisBelgium.2001 -0.2385467 0.0394249 -6.0507 2.567e-09 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2019 0.3760550 0.0648588 5.7981 1.095e-08 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004 -0.3843831 0.0433409 -8.8688 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015 -0.5490174 0.0506198 -10.8459 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSpain.1999 0.1625425 0.0434995 3.7366 0.0002046 ***
## fesisFrance.2005 0.1211721 0.0399055 3.0365 0.0024994 **
## fesisUnitedKingdom.1997 -0.2203990 0.0488864 -4.5084 7.884e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4703732 0.0502838 -9.3544 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995 -0.7649650 0.0876101 -8.7315 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997 0.3311869 0.0837948 3.9524 8.678e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013 -0.4060083 0.0700332 -5.7974 1.099e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016 -0.7717227 0.0750513 -10.2826 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014 0.2741379 0.0431246 6.3569 4.129e-10 ***
## fesisSweden.2016 0.1537088 0.0487753 3.1514 0.0017076 **
## fesisJapan.2012 0.4433046 0.0470046 9.4311 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998 0.1574071 0.0482575 3.2618 0.0011710 **
## fesisAustralia.2016 0.1905241 0.0530720 3.5899 0.0003583 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997 0.4554003 0.0500403 9.1007 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 135.794 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 40.616 1 1.852e-10 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.10131
## R-squared 0.99725
## Log-lik.(n=672) 626.58720
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Mon Oct 17 19:43:03 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672
## Sample: 1 to 672
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp 0.752461 0.272164 2.7647 0.0058769 **
## lpop -0.379351 0.205614 -1.8450 0.0655480 .
## lgdp_sq -0.011422 0.005220 -2.1881 0.0290557 *
## EU_ETS_05 -0.119437 0.026158 -4.5660 6.066e-06 ***
## EU_ETS_13 -0.145496 0.028358 -5.1307 3.936e-07 ***
## idAustria -2.513318 0.157242 -15.9838 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -1.838921 0.115490 -15.9228 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -0.147259 0.097859 -1.5048 0.1329121
## idDenmark -1.850103 0.234644 -7.8847 1.555e-14 ***
## idFinland -2.129137 0.233414 -9.1217 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance -0.924551 0.215223 -4.2958 2.039e-05 ***
## idGermany 1.239048 0.262421 4.7216 2.933e-06 ***
## idGreece -1.366471 0.095789 -14.2654 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -2.769747 0.276228 -10.0271 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly 0.199676 0.207037 0.9644 0.3352212
## idJapan 1.485108 0.337850 4.3958 1.312e-05 ***
## idLuxembourg -6.079046 0.696147 -8.7324 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands -1.064994 0.053244 -20.0022 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -3.821454 0.281901 -13.5560 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -2.087469 0.101999 -20.4656 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -0.460000 0.156717 -2.9352 0.0034642 **
## idSweden -2.935493 0.142762 -20.5622 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -4.369158 0.190798 -22.8994 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 0.643538 0.214535 2.9997 0.0028177 **
## idUnitedStates 3.383738 0.482562 7.0120 6.516e-12 ***
## time1990 6.187346 4.410254 1.4029 0.1611645
## time1991 6.251489 4.410445 1.4174 0.1568911
## time1992 6.245266 4.409901 1.4162 0.1572525
## time1993 6.214531 4.411773 1.4086 0.1594784
## time1994 6.236402 4.411120 1.4138 0.1579561
## time1995 6.246239 4.408937 1.4167 0.1570974
## time1996 6.269613 4.409273 1.4219 0.1555846
## time1997 6.289073 4.410619 1.4259 0.1544334
## time1998 6.316025 4.410699 1.4320 0.1526850
## time1999 6.324298 4.410675 1.4339 0.1521469
## time2000 6.333266 4.411942 1.4355 0.1516850
## time2001 6.382935 4.412708 1.4465 0.1485765
## time2002 6.400460 4.411303 1.4509 0.1473383
## time2003 6.414975 4.408357 1.4552 0.1461553
## time2004 6.409433 4.406010 1.4547 0.1462889
## time2005 6.488419 4.405428 1.4728 0.1413373
## time2006 6.495780 4.404953 1.4747 0.1408445
## time2007 6.458253 4.402832 1.4668 0.1429577
## time2008 6.401192 4.401722 1.4542 0.1464150
## time2009 6.357372 4.404851 1.4433 0.1494817
## time2010 6.395617 4.404274 1.4521 0.1470001
## time2011 6.312191 4.402717 1.4337 0.1521920
## time2012 6.313348 4.404272 1.4335 0.1522615
## time2013 6.364800 4.403220 1.4455 0.1488574
## time2014 6.268851 4.403667 1.4236 0.1551101
## time2015 6.255096 4.407156 1.4193 0.1563438
## time2016 6.249560 4.406416 1.4183 0.1566406
## time2017 6.271813 4.405930 1.4235 0.1551271
## time2018 6.206355 4.404961 1.4089 0.1593832
## time2019 6.118074 4.405908 1.3886 0.1654817
## time2020 6.011982 4.407221 1.3641 0.1730550
## time2021 6.043054 4.404528 1.3720 0.1705873
## iis181 0.285818 0.107991 2.6467 0.0083479 **
## iis407 0.898733 0.125614 7.1547 2.524e-12 ***
## iis408 0.891664 0.125287 7.1169 3.249e-12 ***
## iis409 0.820204 0.124959 6.5638 1.159e-10 ***
## iis410 0.861457 0.124910 6.8966 1.388e-11 ***
## iis411 0.580989 0.124744 4.6574 3.967e-06 ***
## iis414 -0.861695 0.108935 -7.9102 1.293e-14 ***
## iis415 -1.931619 0.108613 -17.7845 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416 -1.839176 0.108149 -17.0059 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417 -1.569186 0.108147 -14.5097 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418 -1.038871 0.108043 -9.6153 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisCanada.2005 -0.151356 0.040452 -3.7416 0.0002009 ***
## fesisAustria.2015 0.191316 0.044613 4.2884 2.106e-05 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001 -0.233196 0.038701 -6.0256 2.984e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.1999 -0.287132 0.058250 -4.9293 1.077e-06 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004 -0.273048 0.054030 -5.0537 5.806e-07 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017 -0.557095 0.054197 -10.2791 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSpain.1999 0.204526 0.042422 4.8213 1.822e-06 ***
## fesisFrance.2005 0.183047 0.038751 4.7236 2.905e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.1997 -0.175308 0.047446 -3.6949 0.0002407 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.424492 0.049638 -8.5518 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997 0.257852 0.081986 3.1451 0.0017448 **
## fesisLuxembourg.2013 -0.386575 0.069389 -5.5711 3.867e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016 -0.772327 0.073612 -10.4918 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014 0.311752 0.042640 7.3113 8.754e-13 ***
## fesisSweden.2016 0.184967 0.048306 3.8290 0.0001426 ***
## fesisJapan.2011 0.352780 0.047392 7.4440 3.521e-13 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998 0.172542 0.046163 3.7377 0.0002040 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016 0.144986 0.051845 2.7966 0.0053351 **
## fesisNewZealand.1997 0.497991 0.050503 9.8607 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2010 -0.255727 0.047196 -5.4184 8.803e-08 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 124.822 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 39.865 1 2.721e-10 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.09928
## R-squared 0.99738
## Log-lik.(n=672) 642.645722000-2021
AR = 0
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Thu Oct 13 14:42:39 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462
## Sample: 1 to 462
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp -1.3118200 0.3867852 -3.3916 0.0007634 ***
## lpop -0.6563607 0.2405335 -2.7288 0.0066347 **
## lgdp_sq 0.0285978 0.0072513 3.9438 9.452e-05 ***
## idAustria -2.9036004 0.1979236 -14.6703 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -2.4613900 0.1441919 -17.0702 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -0.3246438 0.1022886 -3.1738 0.0016197 **
## idDenmark -2.8386097 0.2887067 -9.8322 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland -2.5815875 0.2886189 -8.9446 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance -0.9409054 0.2357602 -3.9909 7.816e-05 ***
## idGermany 1.0649283 0.2835857 3.7552 0.0001986 ***
## idGreece -1.7234127 0.1297340 -13.2842 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -3.4029148 0.3351404 -10.1537 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly 0.0881913 0.2198345 0.4012 0.6885061
## idJapan 1.4387344 0.3808434 3.7778 0.0001820 ***
## idLuxembourg -8.2662498 0.8142956 -10.1514 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands -1.3649646 0.0666696 -20.4736 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -3.9077347 0.3216848 -12.1477 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -2.4502190 0.1377155 -17.7919 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -0.3810010 0.1708440 -2.2301 0.0262888 *
## idSweden -3.4319226 0.1806565 -18.9969 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -4.8037365 0.2295059 -20.9308 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 0.3083839 0.2255000 1.3676 0.1722114
## idUnitedStates 3.2471744 0.5624986 5.7728 1.556e-08 ***
## time2000 37.8073856 5.7191969 6.6106 1.213e-10 ***
## time2001 37.8485614 5.7200772 6.6168 1.168e-10 ***
## time2002 37.8623355 5.7185763 6.6209 1.139e-10 ***
## time2003 37.8665844 5.7165038 6.6241 1.118e-10 ***
## time2004 37.8376054 5.7146730 6.6211 1.138e-10 ***
## time2005 37.8299730 5.7144756 6.6200 1.146e-10 ***
## time2006 37.8336574 5.7141307 6.6211 1.138e-10 ***
## time2007 37.7855566 5.7123818 6.6147 1.184e-10 ***
## time2008 37.7208836 5.7113755 6.6045 1.259e-10 ***
## time2009 37.6893835 5.7141917 6.5958 1.328e-10 ***
## time2010 37.7132585 5.7141660 6.6000 1.295e-10 ***
## time2011 37.6371410 5.7126571 6.5884 1.389e-10 ***
## time2012 37.6294798 5.7140074 6.5855 1.414e-10 ***
## time2013 37.5586418 5.7142574 6.5728 1.527e-10 ***
## time2014 37.4892599 5.7145837 6.5603 1.647e-10 ***
## time2015 37.4992084 5.7178259 6.5583 1.667e-10 ***
## time2016 37.4834012 5.7163306 6.5572 1.678e-10 ***
## time2017 37.4753906 5.7159858 6.5562 1.688e-10 ***
## time2018 37.4032883 5.7150826 6.5447 1.811e-10 ***
## time2019 37.3325294 5.7158615 6.5314 1.962e-10 ***
## time2020 37.2330316 5.7172080 6.5125 2.200e-10 ***
## time2021 37.2337641 5.7147000 6.5154 2.160e-10 ***
## iis267 -0.5432931 0.1461433 -3.7175 0.0002296 ***
## iis409 -0.3182203 0.1116416 -2.8504 0.0045905 **
## iis410 -0.3456947 0.1116532 -3.0961 0.0020972 **
## fesisSwitzerland.2016 0.3317596 0.0507965 6.5312 1.965e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.2014 -0.4908266 0.0509624 -9.6311 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisFinland.2012 -0.2045813 0.0451892 -4.5272 7.874e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4640709 0.0509257 -9.1127 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002 1.0999764 0.1113707 9.8767 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016 -1.0041745 0.0601759 -16.6873 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014 0.2487909 0.0463600 5.3665 1.356e-07 ***
## fesisSweden.2016 0.2342270 0.0509290 4.5991 5.686e-06 ***
## fesisJapan.2012 0.4922890 0.0467278 10.5352 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016 0.2611215 0.0539772 4.8376 1.872e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 69.8421 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 8.8126 1 0.002992 **
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.10084
## R-squared 0.99731
## Log-lik.(n=462) 433.35825
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Thu Oct 13 14:42:42 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462
## Sample: 1 to 462
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp -1.5615282 0.4188601 -3.7280 0.0002202 ***
## lpop -0.3444907 0.2562878 -1.3442 0.1796431
## lgdp_sq 0.0323930 0.0078545 4.1241 4.510e-05 ***
## idAustria -2.6565007 0.2108553 -12.5987 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -2.2852923 0.1537120 -14.8674 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -0.4563995 0.1091078 -4.1830 3.522e-05 ***
## idDenmark -2.4852241 0.3077005 -8.0768 7.535e-15 ***
## idFinland -2.3086889 0.3090731 -7.4697 4.907e-13 ***
## idFrance -1.2527832 0.2509606 -4.9920 8.863e-07 ***
## idGermany 0.6891767 0.3018106 2.2835 0.0229145 *
## idGreece -1.5794853 0.1385489 -11.4002 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -2.9771465 0.3568947 -8.3418 1.133e-15 ***
## idItaly -0.2022154 0.2340532 -0.8640 0.3881096
## idJapan 0.9384363 0.4052238 2.3158 0.0210604 *
## idLuxembourg -7.2524682 0.8678316 -8.3570 1.015e-15 ***
## idNetherlands -1.2061009 0.0701086 -17.2033 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -3.5069577 0.3426172 -10.2358 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -2.2966117 0.1470487 -15.6180 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -0.6050660 0.1820317 -3.3240 0.0009675 ***
## idSweden -3.1462648 0.1894067 -16.6112 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -4.5080071 0.2444955 -18.4380 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 0.0166830 0.2401051 0.0695 0.9446400
## idUnitedStates 2.4978272 0.5984605 4.1738 3.663e-05 ***
## time2000 36.5338480 6.1964374 5.8959 7.805e-09 ***
## time2001 36.5734398 6.1973778 5.9014 7.569e-09 ***
## time2002 36.5889967 6.1957805 5.9055 7.401e-09 ***
## time2003 36.6002935 6.1936276 5.9093 7.242e-09 ***
## time2004 36.5756978 6.1917044 5.9072 7.329e-09 ***
## time2005 36.5682032 6.1914995 5.9062 7.371e-09 ***
## time2006 36.5722903 6.1911384 5.9072 7.329e-09 ***
## time2007 36.5277849 6.1892949 5.9018 7.555e-09 ***
## time2008 36.4641330 6.1882255 5.8925 7.956e-09 ***
## time2009 36.4264842 6.1912090 5.8836 8.362e-09 ***
## time2010 36.4494625 6.1911767 5.8873 8.189e-09 ***
## time2011 36.3753266 6.1895715 5.8769 8.680e-09 ***
## time2012 36.3542474 6.1911149 5.8720 8.919e-09 ***
## time2013 36.2831229 6.1913880 5.8603 9.521e-09 ***
## time2014 36.2010248 6.1917975 5.8466 1.027e-08 ***
## time2015 36.2332465 6.1951347 5.8487 1.015e-08 ***
## time2016 36.2344853 6.1939225 5.8500 1.008e-08 ***
## time2017 36.2265997 6.1935575 5.8491 1.013e-08 ***
## time2018 36.1553628 6.1925958 5.8385 1.074e-08 ***
## time2019 36.0670797 6.1934669 5.8234 1.168e-08 ***
## time2020 35.9638846 6.1948310 5.8055 1.289e-08 ***
## time2021 35.9851265 6.1921870 5.8114 1.248e-08 ***
## iis267 -0.5416752 0.1596103 -3.3937 0.0007567 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016 0.3029273 0.0552001 5.4878 7.150e-08 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015 -0.6139703 0.0520851 -11.7878 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4955728 0.0552859 -8.9638 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002 1.1075850 0.1215610 9.1114 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016 -1.0564419 0.0649787 -16.2583 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisJapan.2012 0.4938844 0.0506692 9.7472 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016 0.2165729 0.0585222 3.7007 0.0002444 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 100.393 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 13.933 1 0.0001894 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.11014
## R-squared 0.99675
## Log-lik.(n=462) 390.13349AR = 1
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1"
##
## Date: Thu Oct 13 21:17:18 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 441
## Sample: 1 to 441
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## ar1 0.753421 0.025656 29.3657 < 2.2e-16 ***
## lgdp 245.518549 58.754624 4.1787 3.627e-05 ***
## lpop -246.698676 58.808064 -4.1950 3.387e-05 ***
## lgdp_sq -2.843636 0.686323 -4.1433 4.207e-05 ***
## idAustria -0.635206 0.070782 -8.9742 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -0.578311 0.063158 -9.1566 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -0.165216 0.029177 -5.6626 2.911e-08 ***
## idDenmark -0.664734 0.067776 -9.8077 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland -0.429493 0.068668 -6.2547 1.055e-09 ***
## idFrance -0.370414 0.044940 -8.2425 2.648e-15 ***
## idGermany 0.109218 0.028356 3.8517 0.0001373 ***
## idGreece -0.437980 0.048990 -8.9402 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -0.692769 0.074416 -9.3094 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly -0.120562 0.027534 -4.3786 1.539e-05 ***
## idJapan 0.170809 0.037553 4.5485 7.239e-06 ***
## idLuxembourg -1.281330 0.140525 -9.1182 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands -0.307144 0.040209 -7.6387 1.739e-13 ***
## idNewZealand -0.825602 0.088841 -9.2931 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -0.564649 0.066618 -8.4760 4.953e-16 ***
## idSpain -0.238518 0.033251 -7.1732 3.756e-12 ***
## idSweden -0.757331 0.082584 -9.1704 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -1.041851 0.112055 -9.2976 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom -0.107629 0.026125 -4.1198 4.641e-05 ***
## idUnitedStates 0.576284 0.066828 8.6233 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2001 -327.225002 78.717624 -4.1569 3.974e-05 ***
## time2002 -327.147199 78.691471 -4.1573 3.967e-05 ***
## time2003 -339.513437 81.604649 -4.1605 3.916e-05 ***
## time2004 -349.353463 83.910405 -4.1634 3.868e-05 ***
## time2005 -358.711289 86.114802 -4.1655 3.834e-05 ***
## time2006 -366.490489 87.931147 -4.1679 3.795e-05 ***
## time2007 -373.376307 89.548090 -4.1696 3.769e-05 ***
## time2008 -375.530984 90.040413 -4.1707 3.751e-05 ***
## time2009 -362.216898 86.891281 -4.1686 3.784e-05 ***
## time2010 -373.393213 89.535238 -4.1703 3.757e-05 ***
## time2011 -379.888314 91.035680 -4.1730 3.716e-05 ***
## time2012 -378.817498 90.784457 -4.1727 3.720e-05 ***
## time2013 -377.100636 90.361500 -4.1732 3.711e-05 ***
## time2014 -372.765985 89.322849 -4.1732 3.711e-05 ***
## time2015 -358.180191 85.895449 -4.1700 3.763e-05 ***
## time2016 -353.810132 84.855444 -4.1696 3.769e-05 ***
## time2017 -357.382890 85.692434 -4.1705 3.754e-05 ***
## time2018 -357.799287 85.768621 -4.1717 3.736e-05 ***
## iis90 0.389817 0.086092 4.5279 7.942e-06 ***
## iis103 -0.338686 0.086569 -3.9123 0.0001080 ***
## iis110 -0.327609 0.086790 -3.7747 0.0001853 ***
## iis111 0.417637 0.086794 4.8118 2.147e-06 ***
## iis254 0.718071 0.090346 7.9481 2.094e-14 ***
## iis265 -0.341108 0.087345 -3.9053 0.0001110 ***
## iis268 -0.402202 0.091060 -4.4169 1.301e-05 ***
## iis325 -0.344251 0.086391 -3.9848 8.071e-05 ***
## fesisFinland.2005 -0.149512 0.047348 -3.1577 0.0017147 **
## fesisJapan.2010 0.129627 0.038629 3.3557 0.0008700 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -0.330696 0.047988 -6.8912 2.254e-11 ***
## fesisPortugal.2018 -0.186212 0.046999 -3.9620 8.848e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 0.25637 1 0.612623
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.98407 1 0.000919 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.08177
## R-squared 0.99821
## Log-lik.(n=441) 505.42429
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1"
##
## Date: Thu Oct 13 21:17:32 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 441
## Sample: 1 to 441
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## ar1 0.834028 0.030829 27.0533 < 2.2e-16 ***
## lgdp 224.923039 63.863666 3.5219 0.0004790 ***
## lpop -226.652490 63.929730 -3.5453 0.0004396 ***
## lgdp_sq -2.591869 0.745833 -3.4751 0.0005678 ***
## idAustria -0.427439 0.084104 -5.0822 5.793e-07 ***
## idBelgium -0.396412 0.074828 -5.2977 1.963e-07 ***
## idCanada -0.119209 0.032694 -3.6462 0.0003021 ***
## idDenmark -0.464168 0.080632 -5.7566 1.737e-08 ***
## idFinland -0.265587 0.079343 -3.3473 0.0008951 ***
## idFrance -0.253587 0.052495 -4.8307 1.957e-06 ***
## idGermany 0.068592 0.031634 2.1683 0.0307362 *
## idGreece -0.306056 0.057489 -5.3237 1.718e-07 ***
## idIreland -0.472823 0.088519 -5.3415 1.568e-07 ***
## idItaly -0.085963 0.030567 -2.8122 0.0051677 **
## idJapan 0.168326 0.040206 4.1865 3.502e-05 ***
## idLuxembourg -0.902211 0.163977 -5.5021 6.800e-08 ***
## idNetherlands -0.208796 0.046627 -4.4780 9.901e-06 ***
## idNewZealand -0.557982 0.105998 -5.2641 2.329e-07 ***
## idPortugal -0.427391 0.077402 -5.5217 6.130e-08 ***
## idSpain -0.170492 0.037897 -4.4989 9.021e-06 ***
## idSweden -0.510281 0.098423 -5.1846 3.480e-07 ***
## idSwitzerland -0.698842 0.134050 -5.2133 3.012e-07 ***
## idUnitedKingdom -0.086398 0.028726 -3.0076 0.0028031 **
## idUnitedStates 0.381869 0.079297 4.8157 2.101e-06 ***
## time2001 -299.206807 85.554559 -3.4973 0.0005240 ***
## time2002 -299.146371 85.526332 -3.4977 0.0005232 ***
## time2003 -310.586819 88.694280 -3.5018 0.0005155 ***
## time2004 -319.700948 91.201749 -3.5054 0.0005087 ***
## time2005 -328.362782 93.599000 -3.5082 0.0005036 ***
## time2006 -335.554913 95.574338 -3.5109 0.0004986 ***
## time2007 -341.955714 97.332800 -3.5133 0.0004944 ***
## time2008 -343.964884 97.868366 -3.5146 0.0004920 ***
## time2009 -331.667658 94.444137 -3.5118 0.0004971 ***
## time2010 -342.018512 97.319428 -3.5144 0.0004924 ***
## time2011 -348.033077 98.951255 -3.5172 0.0004873 ***
## time2012 -347.051753 98.678263 -3.5170 0.0004877 ***
## time2013 -345.499146 98.218535 -3.5177 0.0004865 ***
## time2014 -341.486957 97.089250 -3.5172 0.0004873 ***
## time2015 -327.994313 93.362331 -3.5131 0.0004946 ***
## time2016 -323.977100 92.231619 -3.5126 0.0004955 ***
## time2017 -327.297817 93.142013 -3.5140 0.0004931 ***
## time2018 -327.716814 93.225145 -3.5153 0.0004907 ***
## iis110 -0.350722 0.094851 -3.6976 0.0002487 ***
## iis111 0.409181 0.094624 4.3243 1.945e-05 ***
## iis253 0.301731 0.107027 2.8192 0.0050593 **
## iis254 0.844546 0.100530 8.4010 8.287e-16 ***
## iis267 -0.252280 0.104158 -2.4221 0.0158852 *
## iis268 -0.484338 0.101591 -4.7676 2.635e-06 ***
## fesisFinland.2005 -0.138902 0.051707 -2.6863 0.0075328 **
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -0.158578 0.061342 -2.5851 0.0100955 *
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 4.0489 1 0.04420 *
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 5.0086 1 0.02522 *
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.08929
## R-squared 0.99784
## Log-lik.(n=441) 464.65999ETS (all phases)
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Tue Oct 18 01:01:34 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462
## Sample: 1 to 462
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp -0.4099149 0.4051599 -1.0117 0.3122773
## lpop -0.7351101 0.2468177 -2.9784 0.0030750 **
## lgdp_sq 0.0116148 0.0075950 1.5293 0.1269934
## EU_ETS_05 -0.0387523 0.0337890 -1.1469 0.2521144
## EU_ETS_08 -0.0036255 0.0341928 -0.1060 0.9156107
## EU_ETS_13 -0.1046096 0.0308665 -3.3891 0.0007711 ***
## idAustria -2.9766121 0.2040914 -14.5847 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -2.4760449 0.1472166 -16.8191 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -0.2915931 0.1055281 -2.7632 0.0059891 **
## idDenmark -2.7787380 0.2977628 -9.3321 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland -2.7435466 0.3008995 -9.1178 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance -0.7525663 0.2555315 -2.9451 0.0034175 **
## idGermany 1.2935102 0.3072225 4.2103 3.154e-05 ***
## idGreece -1.7362676 0.1355759 -12.8066 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -3.4854145 0.3466810 -10.0537 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly 0.2545653 0.2371941 1.0732 0.2838139
## idJapan 1.6820964 0.4073936 4.1289 4.441e-05 ***
## idLuxembourg -8.4097159 0.8464389 -9.9354 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands -1.3467542 0.0656909 -20.5014 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -3.9812129 0.3439186 -11.5760 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -2.4655572 0.1442425 -17.0931 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -0.2580279 0.1831547 -1.4088 0.1596738
## idSweden -3.4651874 0.1850206 -18.7287 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -4.8768925 0.2382262 -20.4717 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 0.4893965 0.2449273 1.9981 0.0463809 *
## idUnitedStates 3.6667093 0.5996288 6.1150 2.303e-09 ***
## time2000 27.1304925 5.8245611 4.6579 4.358e-06 ***
## time2001 27.1714338 5.8254289 4.6643 4.232e-06 ***
## time2002 27.1854433 5.8241484 4.6677 4.166e-06 ***
## time2003 27.1904435 5.8225575 4.6698 4.125e-06 ***
## time2004 27.1734233 5.8209491 4.6682 4.156e-06 ***
## time2005 27.1947174 5.8219052 4.6711 4.101e-06 ***
## time2006 27.1998611 5.8216826 4.6722 4.081e-06 ***
## time2007 27.1542972 5.8202318 4.6655 4.208e-06 ***
## time2008 27.0948856 5.8171602 4.6578 4.361e-06 ***
## time2009 27.0619180 5.8197269 4.6500 4.519e-06 ***
## time2010 27.0872729 5.8197396 4.6544 4.430e-06 ***
## time2011 26.9945006 5.8184657 4.6395 4.744e-06 ***
## time2012 27.0006066 5.8196639 4.6395 4.742e-06 ***
## time2013 27.0180254 5.8177674 4.6441 4.645e-06 ***
## time2014 26.9246474 5.8182033 4.6277 5.008e-06 ***
## time2015 26.9849839 5.8202971 4.6364 4.812e-06 ***
## time2016 26.9592102 5.8195092 4.6326 4.897e-06 ***
## time2017 26.9527952 5.8192698 4.6316 4.917e-06 ***
## time2018 26.8830122 5.8185066 4.6203 5.180e-06 ***
## time2019 26.7522532 5.8184108 4.5979 5.738e-06 ***
## time2020 26.6507843 5.8196312 4.5795 6.239e-06 ***
## time2021 26.6713899 5.8174162 4.5847 6.091e-06 ***
## iis267 -0.5437700 0.1360461 -3.9970 7.643e-05 ***
## fesisAustria.2019 0.2725529 0.0604848 4.5061 8.685e-06 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2019 0.3807873 0.0620610 6.1357 2.045e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004 -0.2072212 0.0570941 -3.6295 0.0003209 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015 -0.5259205 0.0473300 -11.1118 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4282567 0.0480768 -8.9078 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002 1.0851865 0.1046267 10.3720 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -0.5732688 0.1027483 -5.5794 4.463e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016 -0.4601213 0.1049667 -4.3835 1.495e-05 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014 0.2769480 0.0434209 6.3782 4.966e-10 ***
## fesisSweden.2016 0.2637919 0.0483657 5.4541 8.650e-08 ***
## fesisJapan.2011 0.4089640 0.0504707 8.1030 6.616e-15 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016 0.2102261 0.0516320 4.0716 5.632e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2013 -0.2775790 0.0550597 -5.0414 7.024e-07 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2019 0.2977465 0.0697653 4.2678 2.468e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 67.857 1 2.22e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 14.172 1 0.0001669 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.09388
## R-squared 0.99769
## Log-lik.(n=462) 468.93945
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Tue Oct 18 01:01:35 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462
## Sample: 1 to 462
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp 0.3697948 0.4808585 0.7690 0.4423224
## lpop -0.8740161 0.2625139 -3.3294 0.0009498 ***
## lgdp_sq -0.0043634 0.0089583 -0.4871 0.6264621
## EU_ETS_05 -0.0484393 0.0400425 -1.2097 0.2270990
## EU_ETS_08 -0.0795505 0.0405843 -1.9601 0.0506640 .
## EU_ETS_13 -0.1858428 0.0323281 -5.7486 1.770e-08 ***
## idAustria -3.1292982 0.2146138 -14.5811 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -2.6161774 0.1564560 -16.7215 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -0.2515411 0.1052036 -2.3910 0.0172575 *
## idDenmark -3.1857836 0.3140749 -10.1434 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland -3.0252642 0.3146051 -9.6161 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance -0.4694802 0.2593530 -1.8102 0.0710043 .
## idGermany 1.6507645 0.3117294 5.2955 1.949e-07 ***
## idGreece -1.9202983 0.1409797 -13.6211 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -3.7876432 0.3635244 -10.4192 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly 0.4949938 0.2418034 2.0471 0.0412923 *
## idJapan 2.2797701 0.4050104 5.6289 3.388e-08 ***
## idLuxembourg -9.0376691 0.8847773 -10.2146 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands -1.3765398 0.0742286 -18.5446 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -4.3059328 0.3554087 -12.1154 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -2.6608563 0.1495880 -17.7879 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -0.1071270 0.1884037 -0.5686 0.5699397
## idSweden -3.6181074 0.1964285 -18.4195 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -5.0797566 0.2525695 -20.1123 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 0.7819613 0.2477710 3.1560 0.0017188 **
## idUnitedStates 4.3791012 0.6106410 7.1713 3.542e-12 ***
## time2000 20.0574340 6.8324747 2.9356 0.0035182 **
## time2001 20.0987461 6.8333713 2.9413 0.0034559 **
## time2002 20.1198768 6.8319094 2.9450 0.0034155 **
## time2003 20.1393931 6.8303638 2.9485 0.0033776 **
## time2004 20.1248635 6.8287672 2.9471 0.0033930 **
## time2005 20.1583577 6.8293621 2.9517 0.0033434 **
## time2006 20.1696217 6.8290472 2.9535 0.0033246 **
## time2007 20.1360644 6.8274463 2.9493 0.0033693 **
## time2008 20.1396811 6.8220446 2.9521 0.0033389 **
## time2009 20.0996233 6.8246999 2.9451 0.0034139 **
## time2010 20.1433705 6.8235806 2.9520 0.0033402 **
## time2011 20.0789599 6.8220502 2.9432 0.0034343 **
## time2012 20.0826936 6.8232234 2.9433 0.0034339 **
## time2013 20.1477239 6.8234823 2.9527 0.0033330 **
## time2014 20.0572249 6.8238933 2.9393 0.0034778 **
## time2015 20.1310944 6.8255937 2.9494 0.0033686 **
## time2016 20.0969694 6.8257765 2.9443 0.0034232 **
## time2017 20.0961785 6.8254248 2.9443 0.0034228 **
## time2018 20.0336586 6.8244905 2.9356 0.0035188 **
## time2019 19.9482536 6.8252223 2.9227 0.0036639 **
## time2020 19.8452841 6.8264978 2.9071 0.0038480 **
## time2021 19.8773615 6.8240361 2.9128 0.0037793 **
## iis267 -0.5449073 0.1618259 -3.3672 0.0008317 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015 -0.6017044 0.0532742 -11.2945 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4425334 0.0567001 -7.8048 5.109e-14 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002 1.0602057 0.1244142 8.5216 3.121e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -0.9729980 0.0652117 -14.9206 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014 0.2657768 0.0515780 5.1529 4.011e-07 ***
## fesisSweden.2016 0.2528055 0.0567180 4.4572 1.076e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2010 -0.3083261 0.0579984 -5.3161 1.753e-07 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 99.987 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 27.312 1 1.731e-07 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.11167
## R-squared 0.99668
## Log-lik.(n=462) 385.26462w/ Temp Controls
2000 - 2021: population-weighted CDD and HDD from IEA
Note: I have excluded the results with temp controls for 1990-2021 that you saw on Tuesday as I noted an issue with the non-EU15 countries that I’m currently working through.
no ETS
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + HDD16dailybypop + CDD18dailybypop"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Mon Oct 17 23:49:39 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462
## Sample: 1 to 462
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp -1.4605e+00 3.8380e-01 -3.8054 0.0001635 ***
## lpop -8.6136e-01 2.3737e-01 -3.6288 0.0003213 ***
## lgdp_sq 3.3236e-02 7.1923e-03 4.6211 5.146e-06 ***
## HDD16dailybypop 2.1955e-04 3.7752e-05 5.8156 1.232e-08 ***
## CDD18dailybypop 1.2905e-04 1.1243e-04 1.1478 0.2517228
## idAustria -3.4493e+00 2.2249e-01 -15.5033 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -2.7890e+00 1.6370e-01 -17.0376 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -9.0262e-01 1.5460e-01 -5.8384 1.085e-08 ***
## idDenmark -3.3097e+00 3.0180e-01 -10.9666 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland -3.5085e+00 3.2589e-01 -10.7658 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance -1.0415e+00 2.3833e-01 -4.3701 1.582e-05 ***
## idGermany 8.4792e-01 2.8806e-01 2.9435 0.0034329 **
## idGreece -1.8428e+00 1.3268e-01 -13.8891 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -3.8556e+00 3.4207e-01 -11.2712 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly 4.2824e-02 2.1501e-01 0.1992 0.8422263
## idJapan 1.1746e+00 3.7085e-01 3.1673 0.0016556 **
## idLuxembourg -9.1307e+00 8.0725e-01 -11.3108 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands -1.6661e+00 1.0547e-01 -15.7966 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -4.0857e+00 3.1882e-01 -12.8148 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -2.4582e+00 1.3730e-01 -17.9032 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -3.5923e-01 1.6709e-01 -2.1500 0.0321530 *
## idSweden -4.0626e+00 2.1882e-01 -18.5656 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -5.3833e+00 2.5241e-01 -21.3273 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 1.4382e-01 2.3642e-01 0.6083 0.5433148
## idUnitedStates 3.1765e+00 5.4619e-01 5.8158 1.230e-08 ***
## time2000 4.1697e+01 5.6441e+00 7.3877 8.676e-13 ***
## time2001 4.1708e+01 5.6453e+00 7.3882 8.651e-13 ***
## time2002 4.1730e+01 5.6435e+00 7.3944 8.303e-13 ***
## time2003 4.1677e+01 5.6424e+00 7.3865 8.747e-13 ***
## time2004 4.1648e+01 5.6394e+00 7.3851 8.828e-13 ***
## time2005 4.1635e+01 5.6396e+00 7.3827 8.966e-13 ***
## time2006 4.1650e+01 5.6397e+00 7.3850 8.831e-13 ***
## time2007 4.1616e+01 5.6372e+00 7.3824 8.987e-13 ***
## time2008 4.1525e+01 5.6359e+00 7.3679 9.894e-13 ***
## time2009 4.1491e+01 5.6390e+00 7.3579 1.057e-12 ***
## time2010 4.1464e+01 5.6390e+00 7.3530 1.092e-12 ***
## time2011 4.1470e+01 5.6375e+00 7.3561 1.069e-12 ***
## time2012 4.1441e+01 5.6390e+00 7.3491 1.120e-12 ***
## time2013 4.1339e+01 5.6392e+00 7.3307 1.264e-12 ***
## time2014 4.1318e+01 5.6394e+00 7.3265 1.299e-12 ***
## time2015 4.1334e+01 5.6432e+00 7.3246 1.316e-12 ***
## time2016 4.1319e+01 5.6419e+00 7.3236 1.325e-12 ***
## time2017 4.1310e+01 5.6415e+00 7.3225 1.335e-12 ***
## time2018 4.1212e+01 5.6413e+00 7.3054 1.493e-12 ***
## time2019 4.1136e+01 5.6416e+00 7.2915 1.636e-12 ***
## time2020 4.1068e+01 5.6428e+00 7.2780 1.787e-12 ***
## time2021 4.1028e+01 5.6396e+00 7.2750 1.823e-12 ***
## iis267 -5.1631e-01 1.4314e-01 -3.6069 0.0003488 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018 4.0469e-01 5.7048e-02 7.0939 5.901e-12 ***
## fesisDenmark.2010 -2.5470e-01 5.5964e-02 -4.5512 7.071e-06 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015 -3.9921e-01 5.9915e-02 -6.6630 8.832e-11 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.4955e-01 5.0000e-02 -8.9910 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002 1.1217e+00 1.0909e-01 10.2821 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016 -9.7864e-01 5.8798e-02 -16.6440 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014 2.6752e-01 4.5303e-02 5.9050 7.498e-09 ***
## fesisSweden.2016 2.7262e-01 5.0109e-02 5.4405 9.237e-08 ***
## fesisJapan.2002 2.6466e-01 8.1325e-02 3.2543 0.0012326 **
## fesisJapan.2013 4.6795e-01 4.7587e-02 9.8334 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016 2.4192e-01 5.2756e-02 4.5856 6.051e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 80.482 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.558 1 0.001157 **
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.09871
## R-squared 0.99743
## Log-lik.(n=462) 443.75444
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + HDD16dailybypop + CDD18dailybypop"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Mon Oct 17 23:49:40 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462
## Sample: 1 to 462
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp -1.5326e+00 4.0448e-01 -3.7890 0.0001742 ***
## lpop -7.7290e-01 2.4788e-01 -3.1180 0.0019508 **
## lgdp_sq 3.3480e-02 7.5851e-03 4.4139 1.304e-05 ***
## HDD16dailybypop 1.8952e-04 3.9564e-05 4.7903 2.341e-06 ***
## CDD18dailybypop 9.1250e-05 1.1841e-04 0.7706 0.4413691
## idAustria -3.3732e+00 2.3273e-01 -14.4943 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -2.7507e+00 1.7149e-01 -16.0398 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -8.4632e-01 1.6326e-01 -5.1837 3.441e-07 ***
## idDenmark -3.2455e+00 3.1683e-01 -10.2436 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland -3.3890e+00 3.4081e-01 -9.9439 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance -1.0652e+00 2.5067e-01 -4.2494 2.663e-05 ***
## idGermany 8.3703e-01 3.0324e-01 2.7603 0.0060373 **
## idGreece -1.8475e+00 1.3961e-01 -13.2335 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -3.7754e+00 3.5835e-01 -10.5354 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly 1.4869e-02 2.2589e-01 0.0658 0.9475518
## idJapan 1.3819e+00 3.8798e-01 3.5617 0.0004123 ***
## idLuxembourg -8.9321e+00 8.4594e-01 -10.5588 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands -1.5361e+00 1.0984e-01 -13.9852 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -4.0663e+00 3.3488e-01 -12.1424 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -2.4905e+00 1.4438e-01 -17.2499 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -3.9887e-01 1.7519e-01 -2.2768 0.0233198 *
## idSweden -3.9689e+00 2.2874e-01 -17.3511 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -5.2755e+00 2.6361e-01 -20.0125 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 1.3577e-01 2.4891e-01 0.5455 0.5857281
## idUnitedStates 3.1439e+00 5.7418e-01 5.4755 7.671e-08 ***
## time2000 4.2002e+01 5.9554e+00 7.0527 7.631e-12 ***
## time2001 4.2017e+01 5.9566e+00 7.0539 7.575e-12 ***
## time2002 4.2052e+01 5.9548e+00 7.0618 7.200e-12 ***
## time2003 4.2017e+01 5.9537e+00 7.0573 7.413e-12 ***
## time2004 4.1992e+01 5.9507e+00 7.0567 7.438e-12 ***
## time2005 4.1983e+01 5.9508e+00 7.0550 7.521e-12 ***
## time2006 4.1999e+01 5.9510e+00 7.0574 7.407e-12 ***
## time2007 4.1968e+01 5.9484e+00 7.0553 7.507e-12 ***
## time2008 4.1883e+01 5.9471e+00 7.0426 8.141e-12 ***
## time2009 4.1846e+01 5.9503e+00 7.0326 8.682e-12 ***
## time2010 4.1816e+01 5.9504e+00 7.0275 8.969e-12 ***
## time2011 4.1815e+01 5.9488e+00 7.0290 8.880e-12 ***
## time2012 4.1802e+01 5.9503e+00 7.0252 9.099e-12 ***
## time2013 4.1701e+01 5.9505e+00 7.0081 1.015e-11 ***
## time2014 4.1683e+01 5.9507e+00 7.0046 1.038e-11 ***
## time2015 4.1695e+01 5.9547e+00 7.0021 1.055e-11 ***
## time2016 4.1685e+01 5.9533e+00 7.0020 1.055e-11 ***
## time2017 4.1678e+01 5.9529e+00 7.0013 1.060e-11 ***
## time2018 4.1585e+01 5.9527e+00 6.9860 1.168e-11 ***
## time2019 4.1506e+01 5.9530e+00 6.9723 1.274e-11 ***
## time2020 4.1433e+01 5.9543e+00 6.9585 1.391e-11 ***
## time2021 4.1405e+01 5.9509e+00 6.9577 1.398e-11 ***
## iis267 -5.2040e-01 1.5113e-01 -3.4433 0.0006346 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018 3.9003e-01 6.0187e-02 6.4803 2.662e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012 -2.7864e-01 6.9192e-02 -4.0271 6.743e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015 -3.6653e-01 7.4062e-02 -4.9490 1.096e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.7347e-01 5.2655e-02 -8.9920 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002 1.1165e+00 1.1513e-01 9.6982 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016 -9.9457e-01 6.2030e-02 -16.0335 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSweden.2016 2.4964e-01 5.2800e-02 4.7280 3.135e-06 ***
## fesisJapan.2013 4.8140e-01 4.9001e-02 9.8242 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016 2.3316e-01 5.5671e-02 4.1881 3.455e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 107.822 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 13.117 1 0.0002926 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.10422
## R-squared 0.99712
## Log-lik.(n=462) 417.65577ETS (all phases)
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + HDD16dailybypop + CDD18dailybypop + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Tue Oct 18 00:42:15 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462
## Sample: 1 to 462
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp -5.9666e-01 4.1943e-01 -1.4225 0.1556525
## lpop -1.1626e+00 2.4548e-01 -4.7362 3.034e-06 ***
## lgdp_sq 1.6203e-02 7.8687e-03 2.0591 0.0401307 *
## HDD16dailybypop 1.8989e-04 3.6393e-05 5.2177 2.921e-07 ***
## CDD18dailybypop 8.9956e-05 1.0861e-04 0.8282 0.4080340
## EU_ETS_05 -4.3563e-02 3.4244e-02 -1.2721 0.2040758
## EU_ETS_08 -2.8657e-02 3.4467e-02 -0.8314 0.4062301
## EU_ETS_13 -7.5739e-02 3.2580e-02 -2.3247 0.0205906 *
## idAustria -3.7101e+00 2.2942e-01 -16.1717 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -2.9514e+00 1.6806e-01 -17.5617 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -6.7314e-01 1.5435e-01 -4.3611 1.650e-05 ***
## idDenmark -3.6151e+00 3.1524e-01 -11.4679 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland -3.8535e+00 3.3710e-01 -11.4315 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance -5.3871e-01 2.5887e-01 -2.0810 0.0380756 *
## idGermany 1.4717e+00 3.1300e-01 4.7018 3.560e-06 ***
## idGreece -2.0329e+00 1.3978e-01 -14.5435 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -4.3109e+00 3.5871e-01 -12.0178 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly 4.9474e-01 2.3548e-01 2.1010 0.0362672 *
## idJapan 2.1525e+00 4.0422e-01 5.3250 1.692e-07 ***
## idLuxembourg -1.0202e+01 8.4906e-01 -12.0153 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands -1.6761e+00 1.0312e-01 -16.2543 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -4.6106e+00 3.4791e-01 -13.2521 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -2.6915e+00 1.4773e-01 -18.2191 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -3.7258e-02 1.8142e-01 -0.2054 0.8373869
## idSweden -4.2402e+00 2.2250e-01 -19.0569 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -5.6838e+00 2.6296e-01 -21.6147 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 6.3837e-01 2.5470e-01 2.5064 0.0125949 *
## idUnitedStates 4.3487e+00 5.9698e-01 7.2845 1.746e-12 ***
## time2000 3.5848e+01 5.8999e+00 6.0761 2.883e-09 ***
## time2001 3.5865e+01 5.9009e+00 6.0778 2.854e-09 ***
## time2002 3.5901e+01 5.8994e+00 6.0856 2.730e-09 ***
## time2003 3.5866e+01 5.8987e+00 6.0803 2.814e-09 ***
## time2004 3.5853e+01 5.8960e+00 6.0809 2.805e-09 ***
## time2005 3.5877e+01 5.8974e+00 6.0835 2.763e-09 ***
## time2006 3.5896e+01 5.8977e+00 6.0864 2.718e-09 ***
## time2007 3.5867e+01 5.8955e+00 6.0838 2.759e-09 ***
## time2008 3.5806e+01 5.8919e+00 6.0772 2.865e-09 ***
## time2009 3.5772e+01 5.8947e+00 6.0684 3.012e-09 ***
## time2010 3.5745e+01 5.8947e+00 6.0639 3.090e-09 ***
## time2011 3.5746e+01 5.8935e+00 6.0654 3.064e-09 ***
## time2012 3.5704e+01 5.8946e+00 6.0571 3.212e-09 ***
## time2013 3.5694e+01 5.8915e+00 6.0585 3.187e-09 ***
## time2014 3.5664e+01 5.8919e+00 6.0530 3.288e-09 ***
## time2015 3.5685e+01 5.8953e+00 6.0531 3.286e-09 ***
## time2016 3.5669e+01 5.8938e+00 6.0519 3.308e-09 ***
## time2017 3.5665e+01 5.8935e+00 6.0515 3.315e-09 ***
## time2018 3.5576e+01 5.8932e+00 6.0368 3.604e-09 ***
## time2019 3.5471e+01 5.8929e+00 6.0193 3.981e-09 ***
## time2020 3.5399e+01 5.8941e+00 6.0058 4.295e-09 ***
## time2021 3.5373e+01 5.8911e+00 6.0045 4.327e-09 ***
## iis267 -5.2262e-01 1.3764e-01 -3.7969 0.0001693 ***
## fesisAustria.2019 2.8220e-01 6.1119e-02 4.6172 5.257e-06 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018 3.7460e-01 5.7026e-02 6.5689 1.589e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004 -2.0883e-01 5.7731e-02 -3.6173 0.0003360 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015 -5.0013e-01 4.7975e-02 -10.4247 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.1620e-01 4.8663e-02 -8.5527 2.623e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002 1.0819e+00 1.0585e-01 10.2206 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016 -9.2538e-01 5.9412e-02 -15.5755 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014 2.8662e-01 4.3892e-02 6.5301 2.009e-10 ***
## fesisSweden.2016 3.0561e-01 4.9024e-02 6.2339 1.161e-09 ***
## fesisJapan.2012 3.9354e-01 5.2675e-02 7.4710 5.093e-13 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016 2.3514e-01 5.2337e-02 4.4928 9.225e-06 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2013 -2.4473e-01 5.6297e-02 -4.3470 1.754e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2019 3.1938e-01 7.0461e-02 4.5327 7.713e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 65.7734 1 5.551e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 6.1566 1 0.01309 *
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.09491
## R-squared 0.99765
## Log-lik.(n=462) 464.37284
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + HDD16dailybypop + CDD18dailybypop + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Tue Oct 18 00:42:15 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462
## Sample: 1 to 462
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lgdp 4.1256e-01 4.6018e-01 0.8965 0.3705155
## lpop -1.0429e+00 2.4873e-01 -4.1928 3.392e-05 ***
## lgdp_sq -4.7246e-03 8.5852e-03 -0.5503 0.5824032
## HDD16dailybypop 1.9536e-04 4.0286e-05 4.8492 1.775e-06 ***
## CDD18dailybypop 1.6689e-04 1.2055e-04 1.3845 0.1669739
## EU_ETS_05 -4.7752e-02 3.7824e-02 -1.2625 0.2075144
## EU_ETS_08 -9.7002e-02 3.8752e-02 -2.5032 0.0127044 *
## EU_ETS_13 -1.3483e-01 3.0905e-02 -4.3628 1.634e-05 ***
## idAustria -3.6487e+00 2.3585e-01 -15.4709 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -2.9298e+00 1.7476e-01 -16.7646 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -7.1510e-01 1.5945e-01 -4.4848 9.535e-06 ***
## idDenmark -3.6419e+00 3.2171e-01 -11.3204 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland -3.8171e+00 3.4507e-01 -11.0620 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance -4.8755e-01 2.5052e-01 -1.9461 0.0523348 .
## idGermany 1.5554e+00 3.0313e-01 5.1311 4.492e-07 ***
## idGreece -2.1309e+00 1.3875e-01 -15.3575 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -4.2313e+00 3.6296e-01 -11.6577 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly 4.8985e-01 2.2818e-01 2.1468 0.0324046 *
## idJapan 2.3345e+00 3.8223e-01 6.1076 2.387e-09 ***
## idLuxembourg -9.8918e+00 8.5215e-01 -11.6080 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands -1.6278e+00 1.1315e-01 -14.3852 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -4.5326e+00 3.4706e-01 -13.0598 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -2.7484e+00 1.4729e-01 -18.6599 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -8.6415e-02 1.7746e-01 -0.4869 0.6265598
## idSweden -4.1914e+00 2.3265e-01 -18.0158 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -5.6534e+00 2.7167e-01 -20.8103 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 7.2651e-01 2.4721e-01 2.9388 0.0034847 **
## idUnitedStates 4.5100e+00 5.7596e-01 7.8304 4.368e-14 ***
## time2000 2.1798e+01 6.5759e+00 3.3148 0.0010002 **
## time2001 2.1811e+01 6.5771e+00 3.3162 0.0009955 ***
## time2002 2.1857e+01 6.5755e+00 3.3241 0.0009686 ***
## time2003 2.1835e+01 6.5752e+00 3.3207 0.0009798 ***
## time2004 2.1833e+01 6.5724e+00 3.3219 0.0009760 ***
## time2005 2.1864e+01 6.5737e+00 3.3259 0.0009623 ***
## time2006 2.1887e+01 6.5740e+00 3.3293 0.0009511 ***
## time2007 2.1878e+01 6.5716e+00 3.3291 0.0009516 ***
## time2008 2.1876e+01 6.5657e+00 3.3319 0.0009424 ***
## time2009 2.1840e+01 6.5676e+00 3.3255 0.0009638 ***
## time2010 2.1813e+01 6.5677e+00 3.3213 0.0009779 ***
## time2011 2.1830e+01 6.5662e+00 3.3246 0.0009668 ***
## time2012 2.1812e+01 6.5674e+00 3.3212 0.0009783 ***
## time2013 2.1834e+01 6.5678e+00 3.3244 0.0009674 ***
## time2014 2.1810e+01 6.5680e+00 3.3207 0.0009800 ***
## time2015 2.1851e+01 6.5704e+00 3.3257 0.0009631 ***
## time2016 2.1805e+01 6.5706e+00 3.3186 0.0009870 ***
## time2017 2.1807e+01 6.5702e+00 3.3191 0.0009855 ***
## time2018 2.1727e+01 6.5701e+00 3.3070 0.0010279 **
## time2019 2.1651e+01 6.5702e+00 3.2954 0.0010702 **
## time2020 2.1577e+01 6.5714e+00 3.2835 0.0011150 **
## time2021 2.1568e+01 6.5682e+00 3.2837 0.0011143 **
## iis267 -5.1969e-01 1.5260e-01 -3.4056 0.0007267 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018 2.8387e-01 6.1626e-02 4.6064 5.508e-06 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012 -2.7326e-01 6.9906e-02 -3.9090 0.0001087 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015 -3.6554e-01 7.4830e-02 -4.8849 1.497e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.3920e-01 5.3534e-02 -8.2041 3.173e-15 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002 1.0616e+00 1.1740e-01 9.0424 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -9.5444e-01 6.1677e-02 -15.4747 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014 2.6633e-01 4.8626e-02 5.4772 7.633e-08 ***
## fesisSweden.2016 2.8187e-01 5.3699e-02 5.2491 2.481e-07 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2009 -2.8285e-01 5.5719e-02 -5.0764 5.894e-07 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 96.414 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 43.682 1 3.864e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.10522
## R-squared 0.99708
## Log-lik.(n=462) 414.71611Temp & Pop Only
2000 - 2021: population-weighted CDD and HDD from IEA
Note: I have excluded the results with temp controls for 1990-2021 that you saw on Monday as I noted an issue with the non-EU15 countries that I’m currently working through.
no ETS
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lpop + HDD16dailybypop + CDD18dailybypop"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Mon Oct 17 23:49:37 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462
## Sample: 1 to 462
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lpop -4.3313e-01 1.8459e-01 -2.3464 0.0194429 *
## HDD16dailybypop 1.6864e-04 3.8436e-05 4.3874 1.469e-05 ***
## CDD18dailybypop 1.5650e-04 1.1348e-04 1.3791 0.1686201
## idAustria -3.2214e+00 2.0726e-01 -15.5427 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -2.6504e+00 1.5603e-01 -16.9868 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -7.5677e-01 1.5412e-01 -4.9104 1.327e-06 ***
## idDenmark -2.9959e+00 2.7370e-01 -10.9461 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland -3.1582e+00 3.0278e-01 -10.4306 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance -1.0439e+00 2.1443e-01 -4.8680 1.626e-06 ***
## idGermany 9.1436e-01 2.6169e-01 3.4941 0.0005288 ***
## idGreece -1.9048e+00 1.3091e-01 -14.5507 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -3.5026e+00 3.0918e-01 -11.3284 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly -5.0153e-02 1.9033e-01 -0.2635 0.7922936
## idJapan 1.4254e+00 3.3726e-01 4.2265 2.944e-05 ***
## idLuxembourg -8.0875e+00 7.2329e-01 -11.1815 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands -1.5124e+00 1.0350e-01 -14.6124 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -3.9297e+00 3.0265e-01 -12.9845 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -2.5956e+00 1.4303e-01 -18.1478 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -5.3999e-01 1.4126e-01 -3.8228 0.0001530 ***
## idSweden -3.7738e+00 2.0322e-01 -18.5700 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -5.0075e+00 2.2211e-01 -22.5449 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 2.1992e-01 2.1721e-01 1.0125 0.3119233
## idUnitedStates 3.4113e+00 4.9303e-01 6.9190 1.814e-11 ***
## time2000 1.9278e+01 3.1037e+00 6.2113 1.318e-09 ***
## time2001 1.9291e+01 3.1046e+00 6.2138 1.300e-09 ***
## time2002 1.9347e+01 3.1055e+00 6.2298 1.184e-09 ***
## time2003 1.9355e+01 3.1068e+00 6.2300 1.183e-09 ***
## time2004 1.9371e+01 3.1080e+00 6.2325 1.165e-09 ***
## time2005 1.9371e+01 3.1094e+00 6.2300 1.183e-09 ***
## time2006 1.9398e+01 3.1110e+00 6.2352 1.148e-09 ***
## time2007 1.9402e+01 3.1124e+00 6.2337 1.158e-09 ***
## time2008 1.9341e+01 3.1138e+00 6.2116 1.316e-09 ***
## time2009 1.9275e+01 3.1151e+00 6.1877 1.512e-09 ***
## time2010 1.9256e+01 3.1159e+00 6.1799 1.582e-09 ***
## time2011 1.9272e+01 3.1174e+00 6.1818 1.564e-09 ***
## time2012 1.9228e+01 3.1191e+00 6.1647 1.727e-09 ***
## time2013 1.9157e+01 3.1201e+00 6.1398 1.993e-09 ***
## time2014 1.9124e+01 3.1220e+00 6.1258 2.160e-09 ***
## time2015 1.9100e+01 3.1230e+00 6.1158 2.288e-09 ***
## time2016 1.9095e+01 3.1225e+00 6.1153 2.294e-09 ***
## time2017 1.9100e+01 3.1236e+00 6.1148 2.301e-09 ***
## time2018 1.9041e+01 3.1248e+00 6.0933 2.602e-09 ***
## time2019 1.8955e+01 3.1258e+00 6.0640 3.076e-09 ***
## time2020 1.8867e+01 3.1269e+00 6.0336 3.657e-09 ***
## time2021 1.8880e+01 3.1269e+00 6.0378 3.571e-09 ***
## iis267 -5.2006e-01 1.4681e-01 -3.5425 0.0004431 ***
## iis283 -1.1176e+00 1.0981e-01 -10.1777 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis284 -1.1202e+00 1.1034e-01 -10.1520 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis285 -1.1263e+00 1.1104e-01 -10.1426 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis430 -1.0440e+00 1.1161e-01 -9.3532 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis431 -9.5236e-01 1.1232e-01 -8.4791 4.430e-16 ***
## iis432 -9.5715e-01 1.1303e-01 -8.4683 4.790e-16 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016 3.5037e-01 5.1031e-02 6.8658 2.535e-11 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012 -2.8598e-01 6.7145e-02 -4.2591 2.561e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015 -3.7306e-01 7.2036e-02 -5.1787 3.547e-07 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.9289e-01 5.0422e-02 -9.7754 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisGreece.2015 -2.3812e-01 5.0819e-02 -4.6857 3.831e-06 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002 1.0128e+00 1.0812e-01 9.3673 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014 2.4475e-01 4.6640e-02 5.2476 2.505e-07 ***
## fesisSweden.2016 2.3116e-01 5.0896e-02 4.5419 7.391e-06 ***
## fesisJapan.2012 4.3224e-01 4.7044e-02 9.1879 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2015 2.7368e-01 5.1689e-02 5.2948 1.970e-07 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 89.0570 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 9.8094 1 0.001736 **
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.10123
## R-squared 0.99731
## Log-lik.(n=462) 433.58193
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lpop + HDD16dailybypop + CDD18dailybypop"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Mon Oct 17 23:49:38 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462
## Sample: 1 to 462
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lpop -6.8033e-02 1.8758e-01 -0.3627 0.7170301
## HDD16dailybypop 1.4935e-04 4.1677e-05 3.5836 0.0003798 ***
## CDD18dailybypop 1.2234e-04 1.2330e-04 0.9922 0.3216781
## idAustria -2.8559e+00 2.1274e-01 -13.4242 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -2.3960e+00 1.6092e-01 -14.8887 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -8.8582e-01 1.6598e-01 -5.3370 1.569e-07 ***
## idDenmark -2.4854e+00 2.7965e-01 -8.8876 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland -2.6088e+00 3.1025e-01 -8.4087 6.974e-16 ***
## idFrance -1.4410e+00 2.2100e-01 -6.5205 2.070e-10 ***
## idGermany 4.4027e-01 2.7015e-01 1.6297 0.1039349
## idGreece -1.7207e+00 1.3785e-01 -12.4821 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -2.9247e+00 3.1493e-01 -9.2867 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly -4.0887e-01 1.9522e-01 -2.0944 0.0368366 *
## idJapan 7.8759e-01 3.4416e-01 2.2884 0.0226220 *
## idLuxembourg -6.9323e+00 7.3156e-01 -9.4761 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands -1.3245e+00 1.0964e-01 -12.0803 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -3.3643e+00 3.0815e-01 -10.9178 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -2.3416e+00 1.4616e-01 -16.0212 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -8.0624e-01 1.4501e-01 -5.5599 4.880e-08 ***
## idSweden -3.3841e+00 2.0818e-01 -16.2554 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -4.6099e+00 2.2802e-01 -20.2175 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom -1.6186e-01 2.2504e-01 -0.7192 0.4724025
## idUnitedStates 2.4641e+00 5.0281e-01 4.9006 1.379e-06 ***
## time2000 1.3157e+01 3.1546e+00 4.1708 3.709e-05 ***
## time2001 1.3196e+01 3.1557e+00 4.1818 3.541e-05 ***
## time2002 1.3235e+01 3.1564e+00 4.1930 3.378e-05 ***
## time2003 1.3246e+01 3.1579e+00 4.1945 3.355e-05 ***
## time2004 1.3256e+01 3.1590e+00 4.1962 3.331e-05 ***
## time2005 1.3255e+01 3.1605e+00 4.1940 3.363e-05 ***
## time2006 1.3278e+01 3.1620e+00 4.1990 3.292e-05 ***
## time2007 1.3276e+01 3.1634e+00 4.1966 3.326e-05 ***
## time2008 1.3214e+01 3.1648e+00 4.1751 3.641e-05 ***
## time2009 1.3146e+01 3.1662e+00 4.1521 4.012e-05 ***
## time2010 1.3131e+01 3.1673e+00 4.1457 4.120e-05 ***
## time2011 1.3136e+01 3.1685e+00 4.1458 4.119e-05 ***
## time2012 1.3094e+01 3.1703e+00 4.1301 4.398e-05 ***
## time2013 1.3021e+01 3.1714e+00 4.1057 4.869e-05 ***
## time2014 1.2991e+01 3.1728e+00 4.0944 5.103e-05 ***
## time2015 1.2958e+01 3.1731e+00 4.0838 5.331e-05 ***
## time2016 1.2966e+01 3.1724e+00 4.0870 5.262e-05 ***
## time2017 1.2968e+01 3.1738e+00 4.0861 5.282e-05 ***
## time2018 1.2907e+01 3.1751e+00 4.0651 5.760e-05 ***
## time2019 1.2822e+01 3.1762e+00 4.0368 6.470e-05 ***
## time2020 1.2733e+01 3.1773e+00 4.0074 7.296e-05 ***
## time2021 1.2748e+01 3.1776e+00 4.0118 7.165e-05 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016 3.1723e-01 5.5449e-02 5.7211 2.047e-08 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012 -2.8294e-01 7.3328e-02 -3.8586 0.0001325 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015 -3.8749e-01 7.8527e-02 -4.9345 1.172e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -5.1294e-01 5.4793e-02 -9.3615 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002 1.2468e+00 8.6757e-02 14.3717 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016 -1.1233e+00 6.2747e-02 -17.9025 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisJapan.2012 4.4956e-01 5.0723e-02 8.8630 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2015 2.2576e-01 5.6063e-02 4.0269 6.738e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 107.286 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 16.385 1 5.168e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.11060
## R-squared 0.99672
## Log-lik.(n=462) 388.18443ETS (all phases)
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lpop + HDD16dailybypop + CDD18dailybypop + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Tue Oct 18 00:42:14 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462
## Sample: 1 to 462
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lpop -1.3654e+00 1.9257e-01 -7.0905 6.135e-12 ***
## HDD16dailybypop 1.8527e-04 3.6011e-05 5.1449 4.211e-07 ***
## CDD18dailybypop 1.1927e-04 1.0698e-04 1.1149 0.2655810
## EU_ETS_05 -4.0427e-02 3.3403e-02 -1.2103 0.2268892
## EU_ETS_08 -7.9416e-02 3.3396e-02 -2.3780 0.0178760 *
## EU_ETS_13 -1.6814e-01 2.9454e-02 -5.7085 2.231e-08 ***
## idAustria -4.1151e+00 2.0779e-01 -19.8039 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -3.2310e+00 1.5432e-01 -20.9367 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -4.4684e-01 1.4909e-01 -2.9970 0.0028969 **
## idDenmark -4.2282e+00 2.7919e-01 -15.1446 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland -4.4352e+00 3.0293e-01 -14.6414 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance 4.5585e-02 2.2476e-01 0.2028 0.8393821
## idGermany 2.2104e+00 2.7338e-01 8.0855 7.527e-15 ***
## idGreece -2.4277e+00 1.3223e-01 -18.3604 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -4.9735e+00 3.2083e-01 -15.5022 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly 9.7242e-01 2.0246e-01 4.8030 2.217e-06 ***
## idJapan 3.2174e+00 3.4451e-01 9.3389 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idLuxembourg -1.1645e+01 7.5021e-01 -15.5223 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands -1.7103e+00 9.8154e-02 -17.4248 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -5.4219e+00 3.2188e-01 -16.8442 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -3.1882e+00 1.4491e-01 -22.0015 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain 2.4144e-01 1.5140e-01 1.5947 0.1115748
## idSweden -4.5326e+00 2.0049e-01 -22.6073 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -6.0203e+00 2.2530e-01 -26.7214 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 1.2508e+00 2.2394e-01 5.5852 4.332e-08 ***
## idUnitedStates 5.8317e+00 5.1475e-01 11.3293 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2000 3.4910e+01 3.2395e+00 10.7764 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2001 3.4928e+01 3.2407e+00 10.7779 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2002 3.4985e+01 3.2414e+00 10.7931 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2003 3.5001e+01 3.2432e+00 10.7922 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2004 3.5021e+01 3.2442e+00 10.7950 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2005 3.5058e+01 3.2473e+00 10.7962 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2006 3.5094e+01 3.2490e+00 10.8017 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2007 3.5105e+01 3.2502e+00 10.8010 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2008 3.5107e+01 3.2533e+00 10.7911 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2009 3.5048e+01 3.2548e+00 10.7679 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2010 3.5031e+01 3.2561e+00 10.7587 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2011 3.5057e+01 3.2572e+00 10.7631 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2012 3.5037e+01 3.2583e+00 10.7532 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2013 3.5104e+01 3.2622e+00 10.7608 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2014 3.5080e+01 3.2634e+00 10.7495 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2015 3.5090e+01 3.2634e+00 10.7525 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2016 3.5044e+01 3.2622e+00 10.7425 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2017 3.5056e+01 3.2635e+00 10.7418 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2018 3.4989e+01 3.2647e+00 10.7172 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2019 3.4895e+01 3.2651e+00 10.6875 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2020 3.4818e+01 3.2662e+00 10.6603 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2021 3.4829e+01 3.2664e+00 10.6628 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis267 -5.2471e-01 1.3637e-01 -3.8476 0.0001389 ***
## fesisAustria.2016 2.2948e-01 4.7681e-02 4.8128 2.117e-06 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018 3.3336e-01 5.6113e-02 5.9408 6.193e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012 -2.7880e-01 6.2439e-02 -4.4650 1.044e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015 -3.3846e-01 6.7291e-02 -5.0298 7.445e-07 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.2439e-01 4.8029e-02 -8.8361 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisGreece.2015 -2.7008e-01 4.7006e-02 -5.7456 1.823e-08 ***
## fesisIreland.2015 1.6603e-01 4.8549e-02 3.4198 0.0006914 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002 1.1369e+00 1.0101e-01 11.2563 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -4.8974e-01 1.0301e-01 -4.7543 2.787e-06 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016 -4.0299e-01 1.0516e-01 -3.8322 0.0001475 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014 2.7821e-01 4.3954e-02 6.3295 6.636e-10 ***
## fesisSweden.2016 3.2318e-01 4.8939e-02 6.6037 1.286e-10 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016 2.3869e-01 5.2465e-02 4.5495 7.150e-06 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2013 -2.7929e-01 5.1417e-02 -5.4319 9.729e-08 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2019 3.3767e-01 6.9586e-02 4.8526 1.753e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 73.888 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 23.226 1 1.44e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.09404
## R-squared 0.99769
## Log-lik.(n=462) 468.65820
## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lpop + HDD16dailybypop + CDD18dailybypop + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Tue Oct 18 00:42:14 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462
## Sample: 1 to 462
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## lpop -6.5073e-01 1.9070e-01 -3.4124 0.0007085 ***
## HDD16dailybypop 1.8156e-04 4.2959e-05 4.2264 2.934e-05 ***
## CDD18dailybypop 1.1907e-04 1.2774e-04 0.9321 0.3518274
## EU_ETS_05 -3.2906e-02 4.0192e-02 -0.8187 0.4134196
## EU_ETS_08 -7.0725e-02 4.0173e-02 -1.7605 0.0790683 .
## EU_ETS_13 -1.5086e-01 3.2688e-02 -4.6152 5.270e-06 ***
## idAustria -3.4358e+00 2.1976e-01 -15.6341 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium -2.8006e+00 1.6713e-01 -16.7570 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada -8.0847e-01 1.6333e-01 -4.9500 1.089e-06 ***
## idDenmark -3.3108e+00 2.9031e-01 -11.4045 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland -3.4904e+00 3.2022e-01 -10.9001 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance -7.9835e-01 2.2103e-01 -3.6119 0.0003420 ***
## idGermany 1.1999e+00 2.7026e-01 4.4396 1.162e-05 ***
## idGreece -2.0869e+00 1.3921e-01 -14.9912 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland -3.8518e+00 3.2541e-01 -11.8369 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly 1.9418e-01 1.9822e-01 0.9796 0.3278409
## idJapan 1.9081e+00 3.3741e-01 5.6552 2.937e-08 ***
## idLuxembourg -9.2130e+00 7.5046e-01 -12.2765 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands -1.5778e+00 1.1451e-01 -13.7787 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand -4.3966e+00 3.2426e-01 -13.5586 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal -2.7299e+00 1.5108e-01 -18.0692 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain -3.4720e-01 1.4795e-01 -2.3468 0.0194146 *
## idSweden -3.9814e+00 2.1845e-01 -18.2257 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland -5.2757e+00 2.3903e-01 -22.0719 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom 4.4051e-01 2.2318e-01 1.9738 0.0490821 *
## idUnitedStates 3.8903e+00 5.0618e-01 7.6856 1.152e-13 ***
## time2000 2.2929e+01 3.2141e+00 7.1338 4.501e-12 ***
## time2001 2.2968e+01 3.2155e+00 7.1428 4.246e-12 ***
## time2002 2.3009e+01 3.2161e+00 7.1543 3.941e-12 ***
## time2003 2.3020e+01 3.2182e+00 7.1531 3.972e-12 ***
## time2004 2.3035e+01 3.2188e+00 7.1563 3.889e-12 ***
## time2005 2.3062e+01 3.2222e+00 7.1573 3.865e-12 ***
## time2006 2.3092e+01 3.2240e+00 7.1624 3.739e-12 ***
## time2007 2.3097e+01 3.2250e+00 7.1620 3.750e-12 ***
## time2008 2.3087e+01 3.2280e+00 7.1522 3.996e-12 ***
## time2009 2.3023e+01 3.2296e+00 7.1287 4.651e-12 ***
## time2010 2.3003e+01 3.2309e+00 7.1195 4.935e-12 ***
## time2011 2.3024e+01 3.2320e+00 7.1236 4.805e-12 ***
## time2012 2.3000e+01 3.2332e+00 7.1136 5.125e-12 ***
## time2013 2.3037e+01 3.2402e+00 7.1096 5.260e-12 ***
## time2014 2.3008e+01 3.2414e+00 7.0981 5.666e-12 ***
## time2015 2.3033e+01 3.2415e+00 7.1057 5.394e-12 ***
## time2016 2.2990e+01 3.2421e+00 7.0910 5.929e-12 ***
## time2017 2.2997e+01 3.2435e+00 7.0902 5.958e-12 ***
## time2018 2.2941e+01 3.2454e+00 7.0688 6.838e-12 ***
## time2019 2.2859e+01 3.2461e+00 7.0419 8.123e-12 ***
## time2020 2.2778e+01 3.2472e+00 7.0145 9.677e-12 ***
## time2021 2.2787e+01 3.2472e+00 7.0175 9.495e-12 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012 -2.6255e-01 7.5114e-02 -3.4954 0.0005255 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015 -3.7645e-01 8.0464e-02 -4.6785 3.940e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.6778e-01 5.6642e-02 -8.2586 2.087e-15 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002 1.3514e+00 8.9455e-02 15.1068 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -9.7422e-01 6.3708e-02 -15.2918 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014 2.6381e-01 5.2292e-02 5.0450 6.848e-07 ***
## fesisSweden.2016 2.6300e-01 5.7309e-02 4.5892 5.936e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 104.773 1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 63.737 1 1.443e-15 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.11321
## R-squared 0.99658
## Log-lik.(n=462) 378.43349Growth Rates
Note: As Moritz mentioned on Tuesday, when looking at growth rates what we understand as “breaks” are represented by the grey impulse lines. I have therefore excluded the plots analogous to the right-hand ones above.
AR = 0
p = 0.1
## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp + d.lpop + d.lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.1; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Thu Oct 20 14:34:55 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672
## Sample: 1 to 672
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## d.lgdp 0.0895483 0.7915250 0.1131 0.9099644
## d.lpop -1.5249089 0.9060808 -1.6830 0.0929300 .
## d.lgdp_sq -0.0015310 0.0146396 -0.1046 0.9167476
## idAustria -0.0094498 0.0213538 -0.4425 0.6582713
## idBelgium -0.0355573 0.0212130 -1.6762 0.0942482 .
## idCanada -0.0241672 0.0199384 -1.2121 0.2259807
## idDenmark -0.0475081 0.0399649 -1.1887 0.2350367
## idFinland -0.0469664 0.0223815 -2.0984 0.0363069 *
## idFrance -0.0361187 0.0215840 -1.6734 0.0947992 .
## idGermany -0.0436581 0.0224470 -1.9449 0.0522752 .
## idGreece -0.0426673 0.0223867 -1.9059 0.0571647 .
## idIreland -0.0159579 0.0202187 -0.7893 0.4302870
## idItaly -0.0343955 0.0225801 -1.5233 0.1282490
## idJapan -0.0162095 0.0228984 -0.7079 0.4793040
## idLuxembourg 0.0042318 0.0239877 0.1764 0.8600306
## idNetherlands -0.0205754 0.0210802 -0.9761 0.3294535
## idNewZealand 0.1180943 0.0501282 2.3558 0.0188194 *
## idPortugal -0.0130278 0.0243732 -0.5345 0.5931944
## idSpain -0.0227504 0.0370149 -0.6146 0.5390469
## idSweden -0.0239440 0.0252324 -0.9489 0.3430556
## idSwitzerland -0.0053032 0.0204398 -0.2595 0.7953769
## idUnitedKingdom -0.0548746 0.0211372 -2.5961 0.0096724 **
## idUnitedStates -0.0193678 0.0204574 -0.9467 0.3441730
## time1990 0.0603012 0.0279933 2.1541 0.0316499 *
## time1991 0.0845342 0.0267884 3.1556 0.0016863 **
## time1992 0.0369667 0.0260057 1.4215 0.1557255
## time1993 0.0043582 0.0263719 0.1653 0.8687981
## time1994 0.0726177 0.0259141 2.8022 0.0052480 **
## time1995 0.0647220 0.0269311 2.4032 0.0165700 *
## time1996 0.0449702 0.0273061 1.6469 0.1001335
## time1997 0.0437320 0.0256021 1.7081 0.0881566 .
## time1998 0.0534834 0.0251914 2.1231 0.0341792 *
## time1999 0.0328642 0.0247559 1.3275 0.1848663
## time2000 0.0469295 0.0256440 1.8300 0.0677682 .
## time2001 0.0727997 0.0254459 2.8610 0.0043792 **
## time2002 0.0750426 0.0264882 2.8331 0.0047743 **
## time2003 0.0749123 0.0279787 2.6775 0.0076324 **
## time2004 0.0341523 0.0267701 1.2758 0.2025605
## time2005 0.0553236 0.0259127 2.1350 0.0331881 *
## time2006 0.0080816 0.0264759 0.3052 0.7602924
## time2007 0.0138333 0.0267344 0.5174 0.6050560
## time2008 -0.0021945 0.0264575 -0.0829 0.9339240
## time2009 -0.0114466 0.0262281 -0.4364 0.6626950
## time2010 0.0765338 0.0257895 2.9676 0.0031274 **
## time2011 -0.0341738 0.0254261 -1.3440 0.1794704
## time2012 0.0308241 0.0249501 1.2354 0.2171827
## time2013 -0.0183089 0.0258176 -0.7092 0.4785132
## time2014 -0.0378938 0.0253104 -1.4972 0.1349053
## time2015 0.0319757 0.0269702 1.1856 0.2362777
## time2016 0.0067697 0.0260328 0.2600 0.7949228
## time2017 0.0379184 0.0256957 1.4757 0.1405869
## time2018 -0.0132034 0.0256032 -0.5157 0.6062687
## time2019 -0.0357066 0.0253414 -1.4090 0.1593745
## time2020 -0.0647879 0.0250305 -2.5884 0.0098904 **
## time2021 0.0758687 0.0252132 3.0091 0.0027365 **
## iis61 -0.2267731 0.0826514 -2.7437 0.0062665 **
## iis117 1.1269357 0.0825257 13.6556 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis176 0.2674803 0.0889470 3.0072 0.0027534 **
## iis181 0.4252434 0.0844614 5.0348 6.434e-07 ***
## iis191 0.4293514 0.0838228 5.1221 4.144e-07 ***
## iis225 0.2632602 0.0854929 3.0793 0.0021750 **
## iis227 -0.2298018 0.0857692 -2.6793 0.0075914 **
## iis236 0.2163414 0.0839460 2.5771 0.0102130 *
## iis239 0.2682668 0.0832826 3.2212 0.0013497 **
## iis248 -0.4072757 0.0824852 -4.9376 1.041e-06 ***
## iis249 0.4442894 0.0825874 5.3796 1.093e-07 ***
## iis265 -0.2619189 0.0826954 -3.1673 0.0016214 **
## iis270 0.3177129 0.0825141 3.8504 0.0001313 ***
## iis411 -0.2989979 0.0830982 -3.5981 0.0003485 ***
## iis412 -0.4774887 0.0833235 -5.7305 1.626e-08 ***
## iis413 -0.2391629 0.0842075 -2.8402 0.0046707 **
## iis414 -0.5160682 0.0843660 -6.1170 1.776e-09 ***
## iis415 -1.0807143 0.0832408 -12.9830 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417 0.2372289 0.0836124 2.8372 0.0047129 **
## iis418 0.5180111 0.0834450 6.2078 1.037e-09 ***
## iis419 0.9587583 0.0833120 11.5080 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis430 -0.3346554 0.0834234 -4.0115 6.840e-05 ***
## iis432 -0.3832361 0.0851250 -4.5020 8.170e-06 ***
## iis433 -0.5497852 0.0832781 -6.6018 9.336e-11 ***
## iis471 -0.2654169 0.0835253 -3.1777 0.0015653 **
## iis474 0.2193393 0.0829357 2.6447 0.0084027 **
## iis485 -0.3402443 0.0829547 -4.1016 4.704e-05 ***
## iis490 0.1861044 0.0834259 2.2308 0.0260858 *
## iis500 0.3586268 0.0843255 4.2529 2.468e-05 ***
## iis501 -0.3159895 0.0836255 -3.7786 0.0001743 ***
## iis504 -0.2234496 0.0835423 -2.6747 0.0076954 **
## iis593 -0.1585871 0.0839180 -1.8898 0.0592954 .
## iis619 -0.2215637 0.0935966 -2.3672 0.0182565 *
## fesisDenmark.1996 -0.0769208 0.0420790 -1.8280 0.0680727 .
## fesisDenmark.2013 0.2936537 0.0839443 3.4982 0.0005051 ***
## fesisDenmark.2014 -0.3926157 0.0995230 -3.9450 8.980e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2016 0.3454302 0.0994260 3.4742 0.0005514 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017 -0.2185962 0.0936908 -2.3332 0.0199875 *
## fesisDenmark.2021 0.1979861 0.0936482 2.1141 0.0349378 *
## fesisSpain.1996 -0.2070761 0.0883009 -2.3451 0.0193643 *
## fesisSpain.1997 0.2574255 0.0855536 3.0089 0.0027379 **
## fesisSpain.2008 -0.2016584 0.0529783 -3.8064 0.0001563 ***
## fesisSpain.2011 0.1389001 0.0544673 2.5502 0.0110289 *
## fesisPortugal.2018 -0.1951067 0.0438814 -4.4462 1.051e-05 ***
## fesisSweden.2010 0.2419954 0.0839390 2.8830 0.0040883 **
## fesisSweden.2011 -0.2447561 0.0850297 -2.8785 0.0041464 **
## fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.2903447 0.0690181 -4.2068 3.010e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1996 0.4649353 0.0750472 6.1952 1.118e-09 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.2948770 0.0601827 -4.8997 1.254e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 14.8092 1 0.000119 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 7.8778 1 0.005004 **
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.07907
## R-squared 0.71595
## Log-lik.(n=672) 803.57958p = 0.05
## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp + d.lpop + d.lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.05; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Thu Oct 20 14:34:57 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672
## Sample: 1 to 672
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## d.lgdp -0.4171734 0.8338386 -0.5003 0.6170477
## d.lpop -0.9322861 0.9384933 -0.9934 0.3209305
## d.lgdp_sq 0.0076991 0.0154485 0.4984 0.6184078
## idAustria -0.0109561 0.0228714 -0.4790 0.6320935
## idBelgium -0.0299796 0.0229408 -1.3068 0.1917819
## idCanada -0.0229092 0.0216754 -1.0569 0.2909806
## idDenmark -0.0978084 0.0263241 -3.7155 0.0002221 ***
## idFinland 0.0096330 0.0287713 0.3348 0.7378860
## idFrance -0.0314642 0.0233218 -1.3491 0.1778148
## idGermany -0.0376495 0.0241422 -1.5595 0.1194190
## idGreece -0.0349279 0.0241088 -1.4488 0.1479379
## idIreland -0.0122986 0.0219755 -0.5597 0.5759305
## idItaly -0.0277122 0.0242743 -1.1416 0.2540747
## idJapan -0.0093323 0.0245816 -0.3796 0.7043466
## idLuxembourg 0.0034483 0.0486156 0.0709 0.9434771
## idNetherlands -0.0155759 0.0228056 -0.6830 0.4948841
## idNewZealand 0.1139158 0.0544570 2.0918 0.0368803 *
## idPortugal -0.0019861 0.0414667 -0.0479 0.9618151
## idSpain -0.0252345 0.0225161 -1.1207 0.2628603
## idSweden -0.0200586 0.0227599 -0.8813 0.3785086
## idSwitzerland -0.0020047 0.0221897 -0.0903 0.9280461
## idUnitedKingdom -0.0507561 0.0228504 -2.2212 0.0267155 *
## idUnitedStates -0.0192793 0.0221871 -0.8689 0.3852314
## time1990 0.0576298 0.0298246 1.9323 0.0538038 .
## time1991 0.0735168 0.0287863 2.5539 0.0109040 *
## time1992 0.0199230 0.0277288 0.7185 0.4727370
## time1993 0.0064265 0.0283034 0.2271 0.8204584
## time1994 0.0711030 0.0274276 2.5924 0.0097682 **
## time1995 0.0561020 0.0284874 1.9694 0.0493809 *
## time1996 0.0473973 0.0280488 1.6898 0.0915936 .
## time1997 0.0273895 0.0274331 0.9984 0.3184913
## time1998 0.0450438 0.0271881 1.6568 0.0981034 .
## time1999 0.0350429 0.0264997 1.3224 0.1865529
## time2000 0.0258002 0.0272925 0.9453 0.3448821
## time2001 0.0639962 0.0274090 2.3349 0.0198861 *
## time2002 0.0590765 0.0282920 2.0881 0.0372185 *
## time2003 0.0682202 0.0299215 2.2800 0.0229666 *
## time2004 0.0259545 0.0286956 0.9045 0.3661130
## time2005 0.0484277 0.0278306 1.7401 0.0823663 .
## time2006 0.0020341 0.0284277 0.0716 0.9429809
## time2007 0.0081925 0.0286371 0.2861 0.7749173
## time2008 -0.0186620 0.0282113 -0.6615 0.5085453
## time2009 -0.0280552 0.0281708 -0.9959 0.3197100
## time2010 0.0735781 0.0273820 2.6871 0.0074115 **
## time2011 -0.0300038 0.0270154 -1.1106 0.2671857
## time2012 0.0216511 0.0268270 0.8071 0.4199548
## time2013 -0.0373965 0.0272849 -1.3706 0.1710249
## time2014 -0.0515347 0.0270197 -1.9073 0.0569685 .
## time2015 0.0271972 0.0284686 0.9553 0.3397993
## time2016 0.0098061 0.0276434 0.3547 0.7229138
## time2017 0.0300915 0.0274222 1.0973 0.2729407
## time2018 -0.0197233 0.0273362 -0.7215 0.4708824
## time2019 -0.0528202 0.0268917 -1.9642 0.0499795 *
## time2020 -0.0707070 0.0267974 -2.6386 0.0085460 **
## time2021 0.0809468 0.0268279 3.0173 0.0026611 **
## iis117 1.1259344 0.0898089 12.5370 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis176 0.3274934 0.0905049 3.6185 0.0003218 ***
## iis181 0.3932319 0.0907355 4.3338 1.724e-05 ***
## iis191 0.4082163 0.0904858 4.5114 7.779e-06 ***
## iis248 -0.3901606 0.0910828 -4.2836 2.148e-05 ***
## iis249 0.4608119 0.0911911 5.0533 5.807e-07 ***
## iis265 -0.2706869 0.0899241 -3.0102 0.0027230 **
## iis270 0.3189546 0.0897759 3.5528 0.0004117 ***
## iis415 -1.0805621 0.0910188 -11.8719 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417 0.2453460 0.0912135 2.6898 0.0073525 **
## iis418 0.5173066 0.0911866 5.6731 2.203e-08 ***
## iis419 0.9722693 0.0911025 10.6723 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis430 -0.3280591 0.0910391 -3.6035 0.0003406 ***
## iis432 -0.4018179 0.0924434 -4.3466 1.629e-05 ***
## iis433 -0.5668547 0.0908740 -6.2378 8.486e-10 ***
## iis485 -0.3677877 0.0904283 -4.0672 5.407e-05 ***
## iis500 0.3531381 0.0902226 3.9141 0.0001014 ***
## iis501 -0.3055729 0.0898932 -3.3993 0.0007214 ***
## fesisDenmark.2013 0.2844747 0.0905003 3.1434 0.0017544 **
## fesisDenmark.2014 -0.2874451 0.0936482 -3.0694 0.0022437 **
## fesisFinland.2005 -0.0678803 0.0323133 -2.1007 0.0360932 *
## fesisLuxembourg.1994 -0.3804449 0.0631611 -6.0234 3.012e-09 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1998 0.3841814 0.0493525 7.7844 3.171e-14 ***
## fesisPortugal.1996 -0.2797755 0.0957982 -2.9205 0.0036291 **
## fesisPortugal.1997 0.2983392 0.0907573 3.2872 0.0010721 **
## fesisPortugal.2018 -0.2178727 0.0483330 -4.5077 7.910e-06 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.2839141 0.0748825 -3.7915 0.0001652 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1996 0.4618441 0.0813194 5.6794 2.127e-08 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.2981683 0.0651898 -4.5739 5.842e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 25.530 1 4.355e-07 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 29.768 1 4.869e-08 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.08604
## R-squared 0.65183
## Log-lik.(n=672) 736.81293p = 0.01
## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp + d.lpop + d.lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Thu Oct 13 22:27:34 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672
## Sample: 1 to 672
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## d.lgdp -0.97171574 0.87484353 -1.1107 0.2671291
## d.lpop -0.71666132 0.98985591 -0.7240 0.4693444
## d.lgdp_sq 0.01732560 0.01625635 1.0658 0.2869545
## idAustria -0.00875275 0.02455038 -0.3565 0.7215750
## idBelgium -0.02786428 0.02462343 -1.1316 0.2582478
## idCanada -0.02300956 0.02331690 -0.9868 0.3241291
## idDenmark -0.07545033 0.02524889 -2.9883 0.0029204 **
## idFinland -0.02199258 0.02548108 -0.8631 0.3884305
## idFrance -0.03945502 0.02485236 -1.5876 0.1129090
## idGermany -0.03649156 0.02589105 -1.4094 0.1592269
## idGreece -0.03202957 0.02583580 -1.2397 0.2155577
## idIreland -0.00858405 0.02360063 -0.3637 0.7161942
## idItaly -0.02624582 0.02602773 -1.0084 0.3136788
## idJapan -0.00819336 0.02635541 -0.3109 0.7560002
## idLuxembourg 0.00863193 0.05203749 0.1659 0.8683081
## idNetherlands -0.01384395 0.02448587 -0.5654 0.5720232
## idNewZealand -0.00212914 0.02360348 -0.0902 0.9281548
## idPortugal -0.00726643 0.02702183 -0.2689 0.7880916
## idSpain -0.02416882 0.02419026 -0.9991 0.3181423
## idSweden -0.02860234 0.02430119 -1.1770 0.2396648
## idSwitzerland -0.00063466 0.02385285 -0.0266 0.9787819
## idUnitedKingdom -0.05006675 0.02454262 -2.0400 0.0417885 *
## idUnitedStates -0.02100705 0.02385457 -0.8806 0.3788707
## time1990 0.07151116 0.03175396 2.2520 0.0246806 *
## time1991 0.09438415 0.03035835 3.1090 0.0019661 **
## time1992 0.02722311 0.02965103 0.9181 0.3589266
## time1993 -0.01844867 0.02949986 -0.6254 0.5319584
## time1994 0.06567437 0.02928392 2.2427 0.0252820 *
## time1995 0.05396188 0.03049013 1.7698 0.0772659 .
## time1996 0.04910585 0.02953524 1.6626 0.0969110 .
## time1997 0.00611146 0.02906083 0.2103 0.8335058
## time1998 0.04539541 0.02910000 1.5600 0.1192919
## time1999 0.02813978 0.02859915 0.9839 0.3255428
## time2000 0.02718712 0.02899017 0.9378 0.3487221
## time2001 0.06460931 0.02931856 2.2037 0.0279245 *
## time2002 0.06300143 0.03027972 2.0806 0.0378898 *
## time2003 0.07725067 0.03198682 2.4151 0.0160298 *
## time2004 0.03209092 0.03070865 1.0450 0.2964380
## time2005 0.04955461 0.02978549 1.6637 0.0966912 .
## time2006 0.00443258 0.03044085 0.1456 0.8842760
## time2007 0.01026585 0.03066693 0.3348 0.7379283
## time2008 -0.01889559 0.03018956 -0.6259 0.5316198
## time2009 -0.03330425 0.03001375 -1.1096 0.2676017
## time2010 0.05437936 0.02894052 1.8790 0.0607284 .
## time2011 -0.02971100 0.02894682 -1.0264 0.3051171
## time2012 0.01796716 0.02865336 0.6271 0.5308634
## time2013 -0.04024304 0.02866793 -1.4038 0.1609062
## time2014 -0.05334328 0.02891829 -1.8446 0.0655854 .
## time2015 0.02065174 0.03036384 0.6801 0.4966766
## time2016 0.00664970 0.02958963 0.2247 0.8222652
## time2017 0.02920098 0.02936537 0.9944 0.3204281
## time2018 -0.02159870 0.02928956 -0.7374 0.4611555
## time2019 -0.05696005 0.02876059 -1.9805 0.0481048 *
## time2020 -0.07448664 0.02866326 -2.5987 0.0095883 **
## time2021 0.08120292 0.02878809 2.8207 0.0049502 **
## iis117 1.12079783 0.09656607 11.6065 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis181 0.36871879 0.09661435 3.8164 0.0001495 ***
## iis191 0.38595033 0.09658524 3.9960 7.245e-05 ***
## iis248 -0.42631277 0.09644370 -4.4203 1.170e-05 ***
## iis249 0.42437020 0.09657334 4.3943 1.314e-05 ***
## iis270 0.32631028 0.09653070 3.3804 0.0007709 ***
## iis415 -1.24959559 0.11629346 -10.7452 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418 0.34594650 0.11628478 2.9750 0.0030478 **
## iis419 0.99609886 0.09803795 10.1603 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis432 -0.39019639 0.09925917 -3.9311 9.442e-05 ***
## iis433 -0.54526686 0.09773041 -5.5793 3.658e-08 ***
## iis500 0.36375241 0.09678675 3.7583 0.0001878 ***
## iis588 0.39441839 0.09663826 4.0814 5.083e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1994 -0.37658612 0.06783408 -5.5516 4.255e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1998 0.54403278 0.08222747 6.6162 8.173e-11 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002 -0.18929293 0.07112976 -2.6612 0.0079939 **
## fesisPortugal.2018 -0.19011117 0.05073252 -3.7473 0.0001960 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 21.090 1 4.383e-06 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 17.038 1 3.664e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.09258
## R-squared 0.58871
## Log-lik.(n=672) 681.62780p = 0.001
## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp + d.lpop + d.lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
##
## Date: Thu Oct 13 22:27:35 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672
## Sample: 1 to 672
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## d.lgdp -0.5681030 0.9598891 -0.5918 0.554175
## d.lpop -1.1457125 1.0899162 -1.0512 0.293586
## d.lgdp_sq 0.0105578 0.0178550 0.5913 0.554535
## idAustria -0.0124367 0.0273050 -0.4555 0.648930
## idBelgium -0.0315640 0.0273866 -1.1525 0.249553
## idCanada -0.0235373 0.0259728 -0.9062 0.365174
## idDenmark -0.0560207 0.0276550 -2.0257 0.043231 *
## idFinland -0.0260070 0.0279416 -0.9308 0.352344
## idFrance -0.0318647 0.0274499 -1.1608 0.246165
## idGermany -0.0402991 0.0287943 -1.3996 0.162156
## idGreece -0.0370062 0.0287011 -1.2894 0.197760
## idIreland -0.0121614 0.0262645 -0.4630 0.643503
## idItaly -0.0302564 0.0289368 -1.0456 0.296159
## idJapan -0.0120061 0.0293003 -0.4098 0.682125
## idLuxembourg -0.0304886 0.0288287 -1.0576 0.290667
## idNetherlands -0.0171978 0.0272417 -0.6313 0.528078
## idNewZealand 0.0089014 0.0260415 0.3418 0.732607
## idPortugal -0.0371338 0.0291240 -1.2750 0.202786
## idSpain -0.0267201 0.0269244 -0.9924 0.321391
## idSweden -0.0198478 0.0268715 -0.7386 0.460423
## idSwitzerland -0.0026404 0.0265588 -0.0994 0.920840
## idUnitedKingdom -0.0526379 0.0273166 -1.9270 0.054449 .
## idUnitedStates -0.0208162 0.0265710 -0.7834 0.433687
## time1990 0.0686428 0.0352445 1.9476 0.051919 .
## time1991 0.0999042 0.0335134 2.9810 0.002987 **
## time1992 0.0303771 0.0327924 0.9263 0.354632
## time1993 -0.0096531 0.0325012 -0.2970 0.766561
## time1994 0.0498048 0.0324045 1.5370 0.124818
## time1995 0.0549314 0.0341479 1.6086 0.108215
## time1996 0.0702439 0.0318236 2.2073 0.027665 *
## time1997 0.0373481 0.0322154 1.1593 0.246778
## time1998 0.0645969 0.0319369 2.0226 0.043546 *
## time1999 0.0404213 0.0315545 1.2810 0.200681
## time2000 0.0428978 0.0319463 1.3428 0.179833
## time2001 0.0680610 0.0325886 2.0885 0.037168 *
## time2002 0.0632488 0.0336808 1.8779 0.060873 .
## time2003 0.0738819 0.0356183 2.0743 0.038473 *
## time2004 0.0314168 0.0341815 0.9191 0.358398
## time2005 0.0323273 0.0327371 0.9875 0.323797
## time2006 0.0459412 0.0330206 1.3913 0.164645
## time2007 0.0104569 0.0341267 0.3064 0.759393
## time2008 -0.0162372 0.0335728 -0.4836 0.628814
## time2009 -0.0249775 0.0333481 -0.7490 0.454150
## time2010 0.0583457 0.0321828 1.8129 0.070332 .
## time2011 -0.0282916 0.0322069 -0.8784 0.380055
## time2012 0.0240263 0.0318536 0.7543 0.450978
## time2013 -0.0371437 0.0318972 -1.1645 0.244684
## time2014 -0.0492498 0.0321622 -1.5313 0.126215
## time2015 0.0109876 0.0335037 0.3280 0.743060
## time2016 0.0102665 0.0328784 0.3123 0.754952
## time2017 0.0323329 0.0326615 0.9899 0.322595
## time2018 -0.0281462 0.0324978 -0.8661 0.386777
## time2019 -0.0609555 0.0319054 -1.9105 0.056537 .
## time2020 -0.0787173 0.0318079 -2.4748 0.013603 *
## time2021 0.0714948 0.0319522 2.2376 0.025610 *
## iis117 1.1180479 0.1075342 10.3971 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis412 -0.4243528 0.1081335 -3.9243 9.687e-05 ***
## iis414 -0.4852428 0.1088358 -4.4585 9.825e-06 ***
## iis415 -1.0593335 0.1078383 -9.8234 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418 0.5535664 0.1081342 5.1193 4.117e-07 ***
## iis419 1.0094791 0.1080229 9.3450 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis433 -0.5247283 0.1078551 -4.8651 1.458e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 28.076 1 1.166e-07 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 46.023 1 1.169e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.10313
## R-squared 0.48109
## Log-lik.(n=672) 604.07971AR = 1
p = 0.1
## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp + d.lpop + d.lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.1; AR: 1"
##
## Date: Thu Oct 20 14:34:45 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651
## Sample: 1 to 651
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## ar1 -7.7968e-02 2.4910e-02 -3.1300 0.0018436 **
## d.lgdp -8.8978e+02 1.3710e+02 -6.4901 1.958e-10 ***
## d.lpop -1.5633e+01 2.8865e+00 -5.4161 9.219e-08 ***
## d.lgdp_sq 1.5173e+01 2.3314e+00 6.5079 1.755e-10 ***
## idAustria -5.2610e-03 1.8366e-02 -0.2865 0.7746422
## idBelgium -2.7130e-02 1.8216e-02 -1.4893 0.1369988
## idCanada -1.8118e-02 1.8214e-02 -0.9947 0.3203098
## idDenmark -9.4205e-02 2.6471e-02 -3.5588 0.0004058 ***
## idFinland -1.3431e-02 2.4735e-02 -0.5430 0.5873533
## idFrance 1.2913e-01 7.4853e-02 1.7251 0.0850904 .
## idGermany -2.7477e-02 1.8224e-02 -1.5077 0.1322099
## idGreece -2.8179e-02 1.8219e-02 -1.5467 0.1225377
## idIreland -1.3698e-02 1.8211e-02 -0.7522 0.4522757
## idItaly -1.9255e-02 1.8213e-02 -1.0572 0.2908916
## idJapan -5.9927e-04 1.8206e-02 -0.0329 0.9737538
## idLuxembourg -3.2932e-02 2.4686e-02 -1.3340 0.1827592
## idNetherlands -6.4844e-03 1.8209e-02 -0.3561 0.7218936
## idNewZealand 1.3250e-01 5.3585e-02 2.4726 0.0137225 *
## idPortugal 1.6413e-02 2.0097e-02 0.8167 0.4144707
## idSpain 2.0060e-02 2.2294e-02 0.8998 0.3686479
## idSweden -1.0219e-02 2.2307e-02 -0.4581 0.6470468
## idSwitzerland 4.4689e-03 1.8228e-02 0.2452 0.8064221
## idUnitedKingdom -4.8027e-02 1.8244e-02 -2.6325 0.0087200 **
## idUnitedStates -1.5094e-02 1.8211e-02 -0.8288 0.4075823
## time1991 2.0695e+00 2.9788e-01 6.9472 1.086e-11 ***
## time1992 -1.7726e+00 3.1466e-01 -5.6335 2.858e-08 ***
## time1993 -1.5982e+00 2.7788e-01 -5.7515 1.489e-08 ***
## time1994 3.3602e-01 4.1141e-02 8.1675 2.279e-15 ***
## time1995 3.1585e+00 4.7574e-01 6.6391 7.763e-11 ***
## time1996 2.8250e+00 4.2506e-01 6.6461 7.431e-11 ***
## time1997 2.8452e+00 4.3179e-01 6.5895 1.059e-10 ***
## time1998 -1.9414e+00 3.3432e-01 -5.8070 1.091e-08 ***
## time1999 4.4801e+00 6.9752e-01 6.4228 2.957e-10 ***
## time2000 5.9253e+00 9.2558e-01 6.4016 3.365e-10 ***
## time2001 -2.4324e-01 7.8741e-02 -3.0892 0.0021114 **
## time2002 1.9606e+00 2.8471e-01 6.8864 1.611e-11 ***
## time2003 9.5300e+00 1.5020e+00 6.3448 4.748e-10 ***
## time2004 7.3411e+00 1.1629e+00 6.3129 5.754e-10 ***
## time2005 6.6482e+00 1.0508e+00 6.3268 5.293e-10 ***
## time2006 5.3929e+00 8.5788e-01 6.2863 6.751e-10 ***
## time2007 4.5840e+00 7.2862e-01 6.2914 6.551e-10 ***
## time2008 2.3087e+00 3.6013e-01 6.4108 3.182e-10 ***
## time2009 -4.7187e+00 7.9306e-01 -5.9500 4.849e-09 ***
## time2010 6.6097e+00 1.0500e+00 6.2951 6.405e-10 ***
## time2011 3.7509e+00 6.0419e-01 6.2081 1.077e-09 ***
## time2012 8.3665e-01 1.1521e-01 7.2618 1.356e-12 ***
## time2013 4.5907e-01 6.6253e-02 6.9290 1.222e-11 ***
## time2014 -6.4289e-01 1.2441e-01 -5.1677 3.352e-07 ***
## time2015 -5.1680e+00 8.7316e-01 -5.9188 5.799e-09 ***
## time2016 -5.3414e-01 1.1765e-01 -4.5401 6.950e-06 ***
## time2017 3.0520e+00 4.7417e-01 6.4365 2.720e-10 ***
## time2018 1.7762e+00 2.7188e-01 6.5330 1.503e-10 ***
## iis33 -2.3789e-01 7.4836e-02 -3.1787 0.0015647 **
## iis125 3.4280e-01 7.7187e-02 4.4411 1.088e-05 ***
## iis130 3.8653e-01 7.7893e-02 4.9623 9.377e-07 ***
## iis140 4.6030e-01 7.7267e-02 5.9572 4.654e-09 ***
## iis147 3.1306e-01 7.7442e-02 4.0425 6.066e-05 ***
## iis151 -2.9083e-01 8.2659e-02 -3.5184 0.0004712 ***
## iis153 -3.4370e-01 8.2394e-02 -4.1714 3.532e-05 ***
## iis158 1.7833e-01 7.6764e-02 2.3230 0.0205511 *
## iis161 2.3194e-01 7.7355e-02 2.9984 0.0028405 **
## iis170 -3.2351e-01 9.0254e-02 -3.5845 0.0003687 ***
## iis171 5.0543e-01 9.1320e-02 5.5347 4.890e-08 ***
## iis188 -2.1531e-01 7.5114e-02 -2.8665 0.0043139 **
## iis189 -2.9301e-01 7.5216e-02 -3.8956 0.0001104 ***
## iis194 3.0067e-01 7.5026e-02 4.0075 7.006e-05 ***
## iis197 -1.6961e-01 7.4993e-02 -2.2616 0.0241225 *
## iis376 -2.5813e-01 7.6517e-02 -3.3736 0.0007958 ***
## iis377 -4.6265e-01 7.6802e-02 -6.0239 3.169e-09 ***
## iis378 -2.4700e-01 7.8062e-02 -3.1641 0.0016440 **
## iis379 -4.9282e-01 7.6885e-02 -6.4099 3.201e-10 ***
## iis380 -1.0805e+00 7.7565e-02 -13.9301 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis382 2.8407e-01 7.6619e-02 3.7076 0.0002311 ***
## iis383 5.7262e-01 7.6877e-02 7.4485 3.810e-13 ***
## iis384 1.0463e+00 7.7797e-02 13.4485 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis386 1.9314e-01 7.6477e-02 2.5254 0.0118444 *
## iis391 1.8355e-01 7.6635e-02 2.3951 0.0169569 *
## iis397 -3.8661e-01 7.9563e-02 -4.8591 1.551e-06 ***
## iis398 -5.8543e-01 7.9641e-02 -7.3510 7.416e-13 ***
## iis441 1.9850e-01 1.0485e-01 1.8931 0.0588854 .
## iis446 -1.8542e-01 7.7236e-02 -2.4007 0.0167034 *
## iis471 -2.7932e-01 7.5928e-02 -3.6788 0.0002580 ***
## iis474 2.1361e-01 7.5287e-02 2.8373 0.0047228 **
## iis478 -2.5777e-01 7.5247e-02 -3.4256 0.0006605 ***
## iis485 -3.5481e-01 7.5497e-02 -4.6997 3.318e-06 ***
## iis490 1.8489e-01 7.5285e-02 2.4559 0.0143695 *
## iis502 -2.3695e-01 7.6504e-02 -3.0972 0.0020559 **
## iis516 -1.5542e-01 9.0215e-02 -1.7227 0.0855142 .
## iis517 2.2523e-01 7.7816e-02 2.8944 0.0039541 **
## iis519 -2.2234e-01 7.7667e-02 -2.8627 0.0043650 **
## iis533 3.4679e-01 7.6500e-02 4.5332 7.175e-06 ***
## iis534 -2.7913e-01 7.6512e-02 -3.6481 0.0002900 ***
## iis537 -2.2793e-01 7.5867e-02 -3.0043 0.0027864 **
## iis547 3.7435e-01 9.0332e-02 4.1442 3.964e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2003 2.0663e-01 7.7171e-02 2.6775 0.0076446 **
## fesisDenmark.2004 -2.6437e-01 7.7181e-02 -3.4254 0.0006611 ***
## fesisDenmark.2016 2.0030e-01 4.3907e-02 4.5620 6.290e-06 ***
## fesisFinland.2005 -1.1236e-01 5.6230e-02 -1.9982 0.0461965 *
## fesisFinland.2009 2.1343e-01 7.3859e-02 2.8897 0.0040125 **
## fesisFinland.2011 -2.9214e-01 7.3766e-02 -3.9604 8.495e-05 ***
## fesisFinland.2013 1.7018e-01 5.7684e-02 2.9503 0.0033139 **
## fesisFrance.1992 -1.4182e-01 7.5180e-02 -1.8864 0.0597789 .
## fesisLuxembourg.2013 -3.1613e-01 7.6726e-02 -4.1203 4.384e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2014 3.3896e-01 7.9674e-02 4.2544 2.475e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.0870e-01 6.7233e-02 -4.5916 5.490e-06 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1996 3.7044e-01 8.5538e-02 4.3307 1.775e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1998 -1.5647e-01 7.7864e-02 -2.0095 0.0449883 *
## fesisNewZealand.2009 -2.1619e-01 5.7178e-02 -3.7810 0.0001738 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2011 2.3126e-01 7.3760e-02 3.1353 0.0018113 **
## fesisNewZealand.2013 -1.7145e-01 6.3872e-02 -2.6843 0.0074931 **
## fesisNewZealand.2017 1.8191e-01 4.9396e-02 3.6826 0.0002543 ***
## fesisPortugal.2018 -2.0588e-01 4.0160e-02 -5.1264 4.134e-07 ***
## fesisSpain.2008 -1.4268e-01 5.5205e-02 -2.5845 0.0100144 *
## fesisSpain.2011 1.0282e-01 5.7598e-02 1.7852 0.0747971 .
## fesisSweden.2010 -1.4429e-01 5.5320e-02 -2.6083 0.0093541 **
## fesisSweden.2013 1.6126e-01 5.7677e-02 2.7959 0.0053622 **
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 2.2459 1 0.13397
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 4.2218 1 0.03991 *
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.07168
## R-squared 0.74850
## Log-lik.(n=651) 850.04008p = 0.05
## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp + d.lpop + d.lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.05; AR: 1"
##
## Date: Thu Oct 20 14:34:46 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651
## Sample: 1 to 651
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## ar1 -9.3814e-02 2.7892e-02 -3.3635 0.0008214 ***
## d.lgdp -9.5984e+02 1.5829e+02 -6.0639 2.425e-09 ***
## d.lpop -1.3983e+01 3.3511e+00 -4.1725 3.484e-05 ***
## d.lgdp_sq 1.6358e+01 2.6921e+00 6.0763 2.255e-09 ***
## idAustria -1.3048e-02 2.1256e-02 -0.6138 0.5395608
## idBelgium -2.7524e-02 2.1266e-02 -1.2943 0.1960972
## idCanada -1.8461e-02 2.1263e-02 -0.8682 0.3856531
## idDenmark -1.0130e-01 2.2099e-02 -4.5839 5.616e-06 ***
## idFinland 1.4917e-02 2.7227e-02 0.5479 0.5839946
## idFrance 1.2344e-01 8.7362e-02 1.4129 0.1582226
## idGermany -2.7988e-02 2.1274e-02 -1.3156 0.1888333
## idGreece -2.8625e-02 2.1269e-02 -1.3458 0.1788903
## idIreland -1.3981e-02 2.1261e-02 -0.6576 0.5110544
## idItaly -1.9580e-02 2.1263e-02 -0.9209 0.3575186
## idJapan -5.9333e-04 2.1255e-02 -0.0279 0.9777395
## idLuxembourg -5.3942e-02 2.7232e-02 -1.9808 0.0480936 *
## idNetherlands -6.6834e-03 2.1258e-02 -0.3144 0.7533352
## idNewZealand 1.3487e-01 6.2480e-02 2.1586 0.0313005 *
## idPortugal 2.2986e-02 2.2566e-02 1.0186 0.3088079
## idSpain -2.8665e-02 2.1445e-02 -1.3367 0.1818537
## idSweden -1.5078e-02 2.1648e-02 -0.6965 0.4863950
## idSwitzerland 5.0429e-03 2.1279e-02 0.2370 0.8127504
## idUnitedKingdom -4.8772e-02 2.1295e-02 -2.2903 0.0223709 *
## idUnitedStates -1.5376e-02 2.1261e-02 -0.7232 0.4698358
## time1991 2.2099e+00 3.4408e-01 6.4228 2.830e-10 ***
## time1992 -1.9699e+00 3.6232e-01 -5.4368 8.064e-08 ***
## time1993 -1.7584e+00 3.1989e-01 -5.4967 5.852e-08 ***
## time1994 3.2949e-01 4.7837e-02 6.8877 1.508e-11 ***
## time1995 3.3986e+00 5.4906e-01 6.1899 1.154e-09 ***
## time1996 3.0313e+00 4.9058e-01 6.1791 1.231e-09 ***
## time1997 3.0678e+00 4.9832e-01 6.1562 1.409e-09 ***
## time1998 -2.1330e+00 3.8516e-01 -5.5380 4.683e-08 ***
## time1999 4.8581e+00 8.0463e-01 6.0377 2.826e-09 ***
## time2000 6.4038e+00 1.0676e+00 5.9983 3.551e-09 ***
## time2001 -3.0640e-01 9.0303e-02 -3.3930 0.0007394 ***
## time2002 2.0898e+00 3.2872e-01 6.3573 4.220e-10 ***
## time2003 1.0337e+01 1.7320e+00 5.9686 4.217e-09 ***
## time2004 7.9644e+00 1.3409e+00 5.9397 4.978e-09 ***
## time2005 7.2149e+00 1.2115e+00 5.9552 4.555e-09 ***
## time2006 5.8579e+00 9.8907e-01 5.9227 5.490e-09 ***
## time2007 4.9737e+00 8.3994e-01 5.9215 5.528e-09 ***
## time2008 2.4834e+00 4.1536e-01 5.9790 3.970e-09 ***
## time2009 -5.1928e+00 9.1320e-01 -5.6864 2.078e-08 ***
## time2010 7.1746e+00 1.2102e+00 5.9285 5.308e-09 ***
## time2011 4.0631e+00 6.9633e-01 5.8351 9.039e-09 ***
## time2012 8.6719e-01 1.3314e-01 6.5136 1.617e-10 ***
## time2013 4.4403e-01 7.6615e-02 5.7956 1.129e-08 ***
## time2014 -7.3348e-01 1.4283e-01 -5.1353 3.877e-07 ***
## time2015 -5.6678e+00 1.0054e+00 -5.6374 2.723e-08 ***
## time2016 -6.1828e-01 1.3518e-01 -4.5739 5.882e-06 ***
## time2017 3.2955e+00 5.4688e-01 6.0260 3.024e-09 ***
## time2018 1.9168e+00 3.1385e-01 6.1073 1.880e-09 ***
## iis125 3.4714e-01 8.7501e-02 3.9672 8.202e-05 ***
## iis130 3.9520e-01 8.7823e-02 4.5000 8.245e-06 ***
## iis140 4.0009e-01 8.7534e-02 4.5707 5.969e-06 ***
## iis147 2.8770e-01 8.7477e-02 3.2889 0.0010681 **
## iis170 -4.0365e-01 8.8621e-02 -4.5548 6.420e-06 ***
## iis171 4.1734e-01 8.9477e-02 4.6642 3.867e-06 ***
## iis194 3.0079e-01 8.7495e-02 3.4378 0.0006294 ***
## iis376 -2.3867e-01 8.8827e-02 -2.6869 0.0074224 **
## iis377 -4.4835e-01 8.9073e-02 -5.0335 6.474e-07 ***
## iis378 -2.2933e-01 8.9996e-02 -2.5483 0.0110879 *
## iis379 -4.8295e-01 8.9144e-02 -5.4176 8.934e-08 ***
## iis380 -1.0717e+00 8.9863e-02 -11.9259 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis382 3.1383e-01 8.8846e-02 3.5323 0.0004455 ***
## iis383 6.0198e-01 8.9143e-02 6.7530 3.589e-11 ***
## iis384 1.0807e+00 9.0160e-02 11.9869 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis386 2.1212e-01 8.8769e-02 2.3896 0.0171940 *
## iis391 2.1114e-01 8.8790e-02 2.3780 0.0177372 *
## iis471 -2.8008e-01 8.7967e-02 -3.1839 0.0015328 **
## iis485 -3.5655e-01 8.7522e-02 -4.0738 5.283e-05 ***
## iis517 2.4292e-01 8.7433e-02 2.7784 0.0056442 **
## iis533 3.5395e-01 8.7698e-02 4.0361 6.181e-05 ***
## iis534 -2.7607e-01 8.7951e-02 -3.1390 0.0017835 **
## fesisFinland.2005 -6.6285e-02 3.1952e-02 -2.0746 0.0384772 *
## fesisFrance.1992 -3.9240e-01 1.0522e-01 -3.7293 0.0002113 ***
## fesisFrance.1994 2.5009e-01 6.2900e-02 3.9760 7.912e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -4.4950e-01 6.4987e-02 -6.9169 1.248e-11 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2017 4.8923e-01 7.1810e-02 6.8129 2.445e-11 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.1654e-01 7.8390e-02 -4.0381 6.130e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1996 4.7434e-01 7.8570e-02 6.0372 2.834e-09 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1998 -2.9949e-01 6.3394e-02 -4.7243 2.914e-06 ***
## fesisPortugal.2018 -2.2374e-01 4.6281e-02 -4.8343 1.722e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 6.4446 1 0.01113 *
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.2725 1 0.00135 **
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.08368
## R-squared 0.63606
## Log-lik.(n=651) 732.73948p = 0.01
## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp + d.lpop + d.lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1"
##
## Date: Thu Oct 13 22:27:16 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651
## Sample: 1 to 651
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## ar1 -1.2441e-01 2.9862e-02 -4.1660 3.570e-05 ***
## d.lgdp -9.5533e+02 1.7295e+02 -5.5237 5.007e-08 ***
## d.lpop -1.4291e+01 3.6608e+00 -3.9039 0.0001057 ***
## d.lgdp_sq 1.6281e+01 2.9415e+00 5.5351 4.706e-08 ***
## idAustria -1.3266e-02 2.3226e-02 -0.5712 0.5681004
## idBelgium -2.8286e-02 2.3237e-02 -1.2173 0.2239866
## idCanada -1.9122e-02 2.3234e-02 -0.8230 0.4108240
## idDenmark -8.0581e-02 2.3684e-02 -3.4023 0.0007140 ***
## idFinland -1.9593e-02 2.3642e-02 -0.8287 0.4075887
## idFrance -3.1428e-02 2.3438e-02 -1.3409 0.1804776
## idGermany -2.8976e-02 2.3245e-02 -1.2466 0.2130601
## idGreece -2.9486e-02 2.3240e-02 -1.2688 0.2050308
## idIreland -1.4528e-02 2.3231e-02 -0.6254 0.5319776
## idItaly -2.0206e-02 2.3233e-02 -0.8697 0.3848106
## idJapan -5.8189e-04 2.3225e-02 -0.0251 0.9800202
## idLuxembourg -2.3080e-02 5.6427e-02 -0.4090 0.6826718
## idNetherlands -7.0675e-03 2.3228e-02 -0.3043 0.7610331
## idNewZealand -8.8910e-03 2.3427e-02 -0.3795 0.7044471
## idPortugal -1.2500e-03 2.4116e-02 -0.0518 0.9586780
## idSpain -2.1553e-02 2.3236e-02 -0.9276 0.3540088
## idSweden -2.4250e-02 2.3430e-02 -1.0350 0.3010964
## idSwitzerland 6.1508e-03 2.3250e-02 0.2646 0.7914489
## idUnitedKingdom -5.0211e-02 2.3267e-02 -2.1580 0.0313355 *
## idUnitedStates -1.5922e-02 2.3231e-02 -0.6854 0.4933772
## time1991 2.2383e+00 3.7586e-01 5.9551 4.495e-09 ***
## time1992 -1.9574e+00 3.9586e-01 -4.9446 9.991e-07 ***
## time1993 -1.7645e+00 3.4951e-01 -5.0486 5.959e-07 ***
## time1994 3.3095e-01 5.2021e-02 6.3618 4.034e-10 ***
## time1995 3.3767e+00 5.9989e-01 5.6288 2.823e-08 ***
## time1996 3.0322e+00 5.3595e-01 5.6577 2.407e-08 ***
## time1997 3.0353e+00 5.4443e-01 5.5752 3.785e-08 ***
## time1998 -2.1163e+00 4.2084e-01 -5.0288 6.578e-07 ***
## time1999 4.8355e+00 8.7915e-01 5.5002 5.684e-08 ***
## time2000 6.3898e+00 1.1665e+00 5.4779 6.410e-08 ***
## time2001 -2.9750e-01 9.8662e-02 -3.0153 0.0026789 **
## time2002 2.0881e+00 3.5917e-01 5.8137 1.007e-08 ***
## time2003 1.0291e+01 1.8924e+00 5.4382 7.929e-08 ***
## time2004 7.9385e+00 1.4651e+00 5.4185 8.803e-08 ***
## time2005 7.1798e+00 1.3238e+00 5.4238 8.562e-08 ***
## time2006 5.8310e+00 1.0807e+00 5.3957 9.940e-08 ***
## time2007 4.9482e+00 9.1775e-01 5.3917 1.015e-07 ***
## time2008 2.4696e+00 4.5384e-01 5.4415 7.787e-08 ***
## time2009 -5.1588e+00 9.9777e-01 -5.1704 3.216e-07 ***
## time2010 7.1197e+00 1.3223e+00 5.3845 1.055e-07 ***
## time2011 4.0620e+00 7.6083e-01 5.3390 1.341e-07 ***
## time2012 8.6875e-01 1.4548e-01 5.9717 4.084e-09 ***
## time2013 4.6253e-01 8.3611e-02 5.5320 4.787e-08 ***
## time2014 -7.2481e-01 1.5607e-01 -4.6440 4.227e-06 ***
## time2015 -5.6388e+00 1.0985e+00 -5.1330 3.890e-07 ***
## time2016 -6.1160e-01 1.4769e-01 -4.1410 3.969e-05 ***
## time2017 3.2819e+00 5.9754e-01 5.4923 5.930e-08 ***
## time2018 1.9110e+00 3.4293e-01 5.5726 3.838e-08 ***
## iis130 3.5933e-01 9.5500e-02 3.7626 0.0001851 ***
## iis140 3.7646e-01 9.5517e-02 3.9413 9.087e-05 ***
## iis170 -4.3557e-01 9.5383e-02 -4.5665 6.054e-06 ***
## iis171 3.7472e-01 9.6353e-02 3.8890 0.0001122 ***
## iis194 3.0738e-01 9.5416e-02 3.2215 0.0013462 **
## iis380 -1.1816e+00 9.9587e-02 -11.8646 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis383 5.1513e-01 9.8560e-02 5.2266 2.409e-07 ***
## iis384 1.0022e+00 9.9517e-02 10.0711 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis441 4.2610e-01 9.5422e-02 4.4654 9.597e-06 ***
## iis533 3.4936e-01 9.5439e-02 3.6606 0.0002745 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1994 -3.8218e-01 7.1865e-02 -5.3180 1.497e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1998 4.4330e-01 5.5967e-02 7.9207 1.201e-14 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2011 -1.7229e-01 5.5546e-02 -3.1018 0.0020167 **
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -3.7454e-01 8.1179e-02 -4.6137 4.866e-06 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2017 4.9306e-01 7.8464e-02 6.2839 6.467e-10 ***
## fesisPortugal.2018 -2.0031e-01 5.0308e-02 -3.9817 7.706e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 5.6721 1 0.0172373 *
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 12.0374 1 0.0005214 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.09144
## R-squared 0.55399
## Log-lik.(n=651) 667.53328p = 0.001
## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp + d.lpop + d.lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1"
##
## Date: Thu Oct 13 22:27:18 2022
## Dependent var.: y
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651
## Sample: 1 to 651
##
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
##
## coef std.error t-stat p-value
## ar1 -1.2203e-01 3.1791e-02 -3.8387 0.0001371 ***
## d.lgdp -9.6677e+02 1.8532e+02 -5.2168 2.525e-07 ***
## d.lpop -1.4980e+01 3.9202e+00 -3.8212 0.0001469 ***
## d.lgdp_sq 1.6475e+01 3.1518e+00 5.2273 2.392e-07 ***
## idAustria -1.3249e-02 2.4889e-02 -0.5323 0.5947007
## idBelgium -2.8227e-02 2.4901e-02 -1.1336 0.2574330
## idCanada -1.9071e-02 2.4898e-02 -0.7660 0.4439956
## idDenmark -5.6716e-02 2.4949e-02 -2.2732 0.0233712 *
## idFinland 1.2335e-02 3.1864e-02 0.3871 0.6988052
## idFrance -2.1450e-02 2.4902e-02 -0.8614 0.3893956
## idGermany -2.8900e-02 2.4909e-02 -1.1602 0.2464402
## idGreece -2.9420e-02 2.4904e-02 -1.1813 0.2379573
## idIreland -1.4485e-02 2.4895e-02 -0.5819 0.5608758
## idItaly -2.0158e-02 2.4897e-02 -0.8097 0.4184666
## idJapan -5.8277e-04 2.4888e-02 -0.0234 0.9813267
## idLuxembourg -1.9749e-02 6.0474e-02 -0.3266 0.7441079
## idNetherlands -7.0377e-03 2.4891e-02 -0.2827 0.7774772
## idNewZealand 4.8440e-03 2.4889e-02 0.1946 0.8457518
## idPortugal -2.7044e-02 2.4898e-02 -1.0862 0.2778372
## idSpain -2.1497e-02 2.4900e-02 -0.8633 0.3882993
## idSweden -1.2948e-02 2.4892e-02 -0.5202 0.6031341
## idSwitzerland 6.0650e-03 2.4915e-02 0.2434 0.8077583
## idUnitedKingdom -5.0099e-02 2.4933e-02 -2.0094 0.0449546 *
## idUnitedStates -1.5880e-02 2.4895e-02 -0.6379 0.5237997
## time1991 2.2684e+00 4.0271e-01 5.6328 2.749e-08 ***
## time1992 -1.9801e+00 4.2418e-01 -4.6681 3.767e-06 ***
## time1993 -1.7845e+00 3.7452e-01 -4.7647 2.384e-06 ***
## time1994 3.3752e-01 5.5721e-02 6.0574 2.468e-09 ***
## time1995 3.4217e+00 6.4277e-01 5.3235 1.450e-07 ***
## time1996 3.1068e+00 5.7420e-01 5.4106 9.150e-08 ***
## time1997 3.0966e+00 5.8331e-01 5.3087 1.566e-07 ***
## time1998 -2.1276e+00 4.5091e-01 -4.7186 2.970e-06 ***
## time1999 4.9004e+00 9.4199e-01 5.2022 2.723e-07 ***
## time2000 6.4753e+00 1.2499e+00 5.1808 3.038e-07 ***
## time2001 -2.9985e-01 1.0573e-01 -2.8360 0.0047254 **
## time2002 2.1163e+00 3.8483e-01 5.4994 5.685e-08 ***
## time2003 1.0427e+01 2.0277e+00 5.1422 3.702e-07 ***
## time2004 8.0451e+00 1.5698e+00 5.1250 4.041e-07 ***
## time2005 7.2787e+00 1.4184e+00 5.1317 3.905e-07 ***
## time2006 5.9325e+00 1.1579e+00 5.1235 4.071e-07 ***
## time2007 5.0209e+00 9.8333e-01 5.1060 4.449e-07 ***
## time2008 2.5105e+00 4.8624e-01 5.1632 3.326e-07 ***
## time2009 -5.2190e+00 1.0691e+00 -4.8815 1.357e-06 ***
## time2010 7.2219e+00 1.4168e+00 5.0975 4.644e-07 ***
## time2011 4.1160e+00 8.1519e-01 5.0491 5.927e-07 ***
## time2012 8.7980e-01 1.5583e-01 5.6460 2.556e-08 ***
## time2013 4.6855e-01 8.9523e-02 5.2339 2.312e-07 ***
## time2014 -7.3478e-01 1.6724e-01 -4.3936 1.322e-05 ***
## time2015 -5.7113e+00 1.1771e+00 -4.8521 1.566e-06 ***
## time2016 -6.1429e-01 1.5827e-01 -3.8812 0.0001157 ***
## time2017 3.3311e+00 6.4022e-01 5.2031 2.710e-07 ***
## time2018 1.9340e+00 3.6745e-01 5.2633 1.985e-07 ***
## iis171 3.8455e-01 1.0457e-01 3.6774 0.0002572 ***
## iis380 -1.1432e+00 1.0504e-01 -10.8839 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis383 5.6705e-01 1.0433e-01 5.4349 8.037e-08 ***
## iis384 1.0535e+00 1.0545e-01 9.9909 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisFinland.2005 -4.6801e-01 1.0405e-01 -4.4980 8.267e-06 ***
## fesisFinland.2006 4.0765e-01 1.0376e-01 3.9286 9.556e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1994 -3.9586e-01 7.6974e-02 -5.1428 3.689e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1998 4.0438e-01 5.7342e-02 7.0522 4.956e-12 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -4.9686e-01 7.6088e-02 -6.5301 1.421e-10 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2017 5.0085e-01 8.4058e-02 5.9584 4.387e-09 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Diagnostics and fit:
##
## Chi-sq df p-value
## Ljung-Box AR(1) 8.2164 1 0.004151 **
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 15.9643 1 6.455e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## SE of regression 0.09798
## R-squared 0.48255
## Log-lik.(n=651) 619.50659