Overview

All models below were executed with impulse indicator saturation (IIS) enabled and a block size of 20. In order to avoid endless output, where reasonable, I present only the model specifications with all three ETS phase dummies (2005, 2008, 2013), a p-value threshold of 0.01, and spanning 2019-2021.

Country sample: EU-15, United States, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Switzerland

Levels

Standard Controls

1990-2021

AR = 0

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Thu Oct 13 14:38:46 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                    -0.2267072  0.2490836  -0.9102 0.3631092    
## lpop                     0.3128056  0.1863785   1.6783 0.0938140 .  
## lgdp_sq                  0.0045417  0.0048995   0.9270 0.3543179    
## idAustria               -1.9977703  0.1430139 -13.9691 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.4947697  0.1066445 -14.0164 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.4525842  0.0915476  -4.9437 1.002e-06 ***
## idDenmark               -1.2200040  0.2108826  -5.7852 1.179e-08 ***
## idFinland               -1.4125173  0.2110527  -6.6927 5.124e-11 ***
## idFrance                -1.5597321  0.1896817  -8.2229 1.281e-15 ***
## idGermany                0.3502397  0.2273463   1.5406 0.1239637    
## idGreece                -1.1451584  0.0892518 -12.8306 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -1.9208618  0.2496537  -7.6941 6.056e-14 ***
## idItaly                 -0.4943468  0.1810932  -2.7298 0.0065276 ** 
## idJapan                  0.3746376  0.2946579   1.2714 0.2040784    
## idLuxembourg            -3.9741137  0.6299617  -6.3085 5.550e-10 ***
## idNetherlands           -0.9569203  0.0543494 -17.6068 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.0185284  0.2546859 -11.8520 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -1.8511557  0.0946398 -19.5600 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.8517221  0.1430947  -5.9522 4.554e-09 ***
## idSweden                -2.4732950  0.1296818 -19.0720 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -3.7567040  0.1717826 -21.8689 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom         -0.0961348  0.1879708  -0.5114 0.6092389    
## idUnitedStates           1.7714286  0.4194870   4.2228 2.796e-05 ***
## time1990                 9.3822276  4.4340565   2.1159 0.0347697 *  
## time1991                 9.4438664  4.4342032   2.1298 0.0336053 *  
## time1992                 9.4408272  4.4335376   2.1294 0.0336357 *  
## time1993                 9.3964956  4.4355874   2.1184 0.0345579 *  
## time1994                 9.4242495  4.4347899   2.1251 0.0339976 *  
## time1995                 9.4498039  4.4322865   2.1320 0.0334182 *  
## time1996                 9.4672897  4.4326290   2.1358 0.0331074 *  
## time1997                 9.4760300  4.4332080   2.1375 0.0329690 *  
## time1998                 9.5025802  4.4331769   2.1435 0.0324821 *  
## time1999                 9.5056066  4.4331980   2.1442 0.0324279 *  
## time2000                 9.5106292  4.4350471   2.1444 0.0324087 *  
## time2001                 9.5587890  4.4358310   2.1549 0.0315754 *  
## time2002                 9.5822414  4.4342587   2.1610 0.0311024 *  
## time2003                 9.6170683  4.4308900   2.1705 0.0303722 *  
## time2004                 9.6301942  4.4282051   2.1747 0.0300482 *  
## time2005                 9.6266779  4.4278032   2.1741 0.0300932 *  
## time2006                 9.6360666  4.4272141   2.1766 0.0299118 *  
## time2007                 9.6089076  4.4248163   2.1716 0.0302860 *  
## time2008                 9.5454480  4.4236277   2.1578 0.0313458 *  
## time2009                 9.4866871  4.4269926   2.1429 0.0325301 *  
## time2010                 9.5110088  4.4269694   2.1484 0.0320885 *  
## time2011                 9.4256555  4.4252721   2.1300 0.0335901 *  
## time2012                 9.4179912  4.4269402   2.1274 0.0338008 *  
## time2013                 9.3555347  4.4261081   2.1137 0.0349608 *  
## time2014                 9.2600218  4.4265690   2.0919 0.0368749 *  
## time2015                 9.2883100  4.4303377   2.0965 0.0364631 *  
## time2016                 9.2783101  4.4307233   2.0941 0.0366807 *  
## time2017                 9.2764373  4.4300510   2.0940 0.0366901 *  
## time2018                 9.2154575  4.4288038   2.0808 0.0378852 *  
## time2019                 9.1177896  4.4297146   2.0583 0.0399998 *  
## time2020                 9.0031631  4.4310738   2.0318 0.0426213 *  
## time2021                 9.0439918  4.4279646   2.0425 0.0415510 *  
## iis181                   0.4066448  0.1126625   3.6094 0.0003331 ***
## iis407                   0.8440336  0.1337128   6.3123 5.424e-10 ***
## iis408                   0.8488375  0.1334414   6.3611 4.032e-10 ***
## iis409                   0.7916366  0.1331638   5.9448 4.751e-09 ***
## iis410                   0.8431351  0.1331322   6.3331 4.782e-10 ***
## iis411                   0.5714103  0.1329822   4.2969 2.027e-05 ***
## iis414                  -0.8863110  0.1156523  -7.6636 7.519e-14 ***
## iis415                  -1.9578847  0.1153460 -16.9740 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.8512026  0.1149419 -16.1056 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.5933814  0.1149925 -13.8564 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.0681734  0.1148934  -9.2971 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis433                  -0.8415339  0.1253989  -6.7109 4.566e-11 ***
## iis434                  -0.8684446  0.1256018  -6.9143 1.231e-11 ***
## iis435                  -0.9041789  0.1258194  -7.1863 2.030e-12 ***
## iis640                  -0.8228432  0.1261004  -6.5253 1.468e-10 ***
## iis641                  -0.7539098  0.1261403  -5.9768 3.951e-09 ***
## iis642                  -0.7394725  0.1263919  -5.8506 8.142e-09 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001       -0.2656017  0.0408064  -6.5088 1.626e-10 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2013    0.2735748  0.0435487   6.2820 6.511e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.4008078  0.0450133  -8.9042 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -0.5692559  0.0527014 -10.8015 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2000 -0.1216057  0.0456334  -2.6648 0.0079143 ** 
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -0.4813188  0.0502392  -9.5805 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     0.2683816  0.0868639   3.0897 0.0020986 ** 
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.4466399  0.0728101  -6.1343 1.573e-09 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.2545242  0.0447069   5.6932 1.972e-08 ***
## fesisJapan.2011          0.5072433  0.0430943  11.7705 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998      0.1403702  0.0525719   2.6701 0.0077938 ** 
## fesisAustralia.2008      0.2060760  0.0482644   4.2697 2.282e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.4854329  0.0508282   9.5505 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   151.72  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  34.98  1 3.331e-09 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10585
## R-squared          0.99700
## Log-lik.(n=672)  598.08980

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Thu Oct 13 14:38:50 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                    -0.2408237  0.2624185  -0.9177 0.3591396    
## lpop                     0.4201829  0.1949642   2.1552 0.0315442 *  
## lgdp_sq                  0.0045459  0.0051401   0.8844 0.3768420    
## idAustria               -1.9903866  0.1524182 -13.0587 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.6863182  0.1103237 -15.2852 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.5745775  0.0863881  -6.6511 6.547e-11 ***
## idDenmark               -1.1473456  0.2244706  -5.1113 4.305e-07 ***
## idFinland               -1.3635183  0.2246665  -6.0691 2.279e-09 ***
## idFrance                -1.7440619  0.1914108  -9.1116 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idGermany                0.1426712  0.2314048   0.6165 0.5377692    
## idGreece                -1.1729572  0.0942285 -12.4480 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -1.8489665  0.2653200  -6.9688 8.429e-12 ***
## idItaly                 -0.6731582  0.1821599  -3.6954 0.0002396 ***
## idJapan                  0.1266055  0.3026688   0.4183 0.6758793    
## idLuxembourg            -2.9061004  0.6648187  -4.3713 1.456e-05 ***
## idNetherlands           -0.9486078  0.0521483 -18.1906 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -2.9532816  0.2707525 -10.9077 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -1.8755589  0.1002139 -18.7156 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -1.0061968  0.1415587  -7.1080 3.351e-12 ***
## idSweden                -2.4746511  0.1380694 -17.9232 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -3.7320524  0.1829724 -20.3968 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom         -0.3481623  0.1853327  -1.8786 0.0607857 .  
## idUnitedStates           1.4468429  0.4346213   3.3290 0.0009250 ***
## time1990                 8.0434907  4.6127469   1.7438 0.0817135 .  
## time1991                 8.1048924  4.6130043   1.7570 0.0794328 .  
## time1992                 8.0992877  4.6124869   1.7559 0.0796066 .  
## time1993                 8.0558557  4.6145471   1.7458 0.0813650 .  
## time1994                 8.0710522  4.6139018   1.7493 0.0807513 .  
## time1995                 8.1084935  4.6112173   1.7584 0.0791837 .  
## time1996                 8.1450819  4.6115369   1.7662 0.0778632 .  
## time1997                 8.1327986  4.6121376   1.7633 0.0783501 .  
## time1998                 8.1660194  4.6124368   1.7704 0.0771616 .  
## time1999                 8.1688204  4.6124645   1.7710 0.0770622 .  
## time2000                 8.1666063  4.6138644   1.7700 0.0772317 .  
## time2001                 8.2008785  4.6147615   1.7771 0.0760580 .  
## time2002                 8.2248440  4.6131688   1.7829 0.0751063 .  
## time2003                 8.2615916  4.6097966   1.7922 0.0736068 .  
## time2004                 8.2766316  4.6070833   1.7965 0.0729169 .  
## time2005                 8.2730728  4.6066911   1.7959 0.0730155 .  
## time2006                 8.2825001  4.6061102   1.7982 0.0726542 .  
## time2007                 8.2563720  4.6037011   1.7934 0.0734084 .  
## time2008                 8.1904322  4.6023569   1.7796 0.0756439 .  
## time2009                 8.1296387  4.6057762   1.7651 0.0780554 .  
## time2010                 8.1536522  4.6057602   1.7703 0.0771814 .  
## time2011                 8.0688359  4.6040490   1.7526 0.0801888 .  
## time2012                 8.0600126  4.6057430   1.7500 0.0806300 .  
## time2013                 7.9985665  4.6048800   1.7370 0.0829037 .  
## time2014                 7.9147309  4.6052685   1.7186 0.0861976 .  
## time2015                 7.9441386  4.6092770   1.7235 0.0853105 .  
## time2016                 7.9332603  4.6093724   1.7211 0.0857446 .  
## time2017                 7.9300859  4.6088631   1.7206 0.0858351 .  
## time2018                 7.8676597  4.6077521   1.7075 0.0882487 .  
## time2019                 7.7730754  4.6087643   1.6866 0.0922020 .  
## time2020                 7.6608724  4.6101720   1.6617 0.0970879 .  
## time2021                 7.7037117  4.6071780   1.6721 0.0950230 .  
## iis415                  -1.9741260  0.1242812 -15.8843 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.8675100  0.1238566 -15.0780 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.6043273  0.1238611 -12.9526 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.0664072  0.1238006  -8.6139 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2013    0.2650862  0.0468634   5.6566 2.390e-08 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.4149791  0.0476658  -8.7060 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -0.5832285  0.0567481 -10.2775 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2015 -0.5388994  0.0506164 -10.6467 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -0.7912513  0.0983829  -8.0426 4.699e-15 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997    -0.6094364  0.1433184  -4.2523 2.453e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1998     0.8949572  0.1245276   7.1868 1.974e-12 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.4634095  0.0783752  -5.9127 5.646e-09 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.8350722  0.0836641  -9.9813 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisJapan.2011          0.5093517  0.0463089  10.9990 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2008      0.2640983  0.0466370   5.6628 2.309e-08 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.4871320  0.0544138   8.9524 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   186.819  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  47.778  1 4.772e-12 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.11414
## R-squared          0.99643
## Log-lik.(n=672)  540.45591
AR = 1

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1"
## 
## Date: Thu Oct 13 21:14:20 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651 
## Sample: 1 to 651 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                            coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## ar1                    0.812601   0.019326  42.0480 < 2.2e-16 ***
## lgdp                  22.157272   6.915579   3.2040 0.0014298 ** 
## lpop                 -22.755072   6.793278  -3.3496 0.0008616 ***
## lgdp_sq               -0.242266   0.083700  -2.8945 0.0039406 ** 
## idAustria             -0.479933   0.053142  -9.0311 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium             -0.414458   0.045943  -9.0211 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada              -0.108230   0.024267  -4.4599 9.847e-06 ***
## idDenmark             -0.304564   0.054285  -5.6104 3.126e-08 ***
## idFinland             -0.402255   0.045578  -8.8256 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance              -0.284954   0.034747  -8.2009 1.536e-15 ***
## idGermany              0.093123   0.025448   3.6594 0.0002758 ***
## idGreece              -0.316393   0.037366  -8.4675 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland             -0.505402   0.055543  -9.0992 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly               -0.081357   0.023290  -3.4932 0.0005136 ***
## idJapan                0.181221   0.029172   6.2123 9.960e-10 ***
## idLuxembourg          -0.862136   0.102908  -8.3777 4.067e-16 ***
## idNetherlands         -0.223996   0.031733  -7.0588 4.807e-12 ***
## idNewZealand          -0.635694   0.068497  -9.2806 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal            -0.439075   0.049310  -8.9043 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain               -0.168052   0.027144  -6.1911 1.130e-09 ***
## idSweden              -0.572496   0.060950  -9.3928 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland         -0.786230   0.084266  -9.3303 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom       -0.061537   0.022415  -2.7454 0.0062315 ** 
## idUnitedStates         0.456445   0.053385   8.5500 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time1991             -30.325380   9.842683  -3.0810 0.0021606 ** 
## time1992             -29.842737   9.691367  -3.0793 0.0021728 ** 
## time1993             -29.396188   9.554829  -3.0766 0.0021925 ** 
## time1994             -29.095337   9.484599  -3.0676 0.0022580 ** 
## time1995             -29.267450   9.518866  -3.0747 0.0022063 ** 
## time1996             -29.382729   9.542571  -3.0791 0.0021741 ** 
## time1997             -29.531799   9.572852  -3.0850 0.0021326 ** 
## time1998             -29.019463   9.439437  -3.0743 0.0022092 ** 
## time1999             -29.453813   9.544613  -3.0859 0.0021259 ** 
## time2000             -30.070979   9.701213  -3.0997 0.0020308 ** 
## time2001             -29.724510   9.609186  -3.0933 0.0020742 ** 
## time2002             -29.734068   9.603236  -3.0963 0.0020543 ** 
## time2003             -30.959935   9.922745  -3.1201 0.0018976 ** 
## time2004             -31.982553  10.174974  -3.1433 0.0017560 ** 
## time2005             -32.911935  10.415955  -3.1598 0.0016611 ** 
## time2006             -33.741110  10.613757  -3.1790 0.0015565 ** 
## time2007             -34.440504  10.789636  -3.1920 0.0014892 ** 
## time2008             -34.702763  10.840890  -3.2011 0.0014438 ** 
## time2009             -33.413760  10.489673  -3.1854 0.0015230 ** 
## time2010             -34.465448  10.778566  -3.1976 0.0014612 ** 
## time2011             -35.216817  10.941392  -3.2187 0.0013596 ** 
## time2012             -35.093591  10.910478  -3.2165 0.0013698 ** 
## time2013             -35.000338  10.860651  -3.2227 0.0013411 ** 
## time2014             -34.607351  10.743027  -3.2214 0.0013471 ** 
## time2015             -33.102735  10.362360  -3.1945 0.0014765 ** 
## time2016             -32.716496  10.244192  -3.1937 0.0014808 ** 
## time2017             -33.074137  10.333101  -3.2008 0.0014453 ** 
## time2018             -33.195991  10.337344  -3.2113 0.0013945 ** 
## iis130                 0.290764   0.098877   2.9407 0.0034054 ** 
## iis140                 0.384907   0.092215   4.1740 3.451e-05 ***
## iis153                -0.308918   0.092651  -3.3342 0.0009098 ***
## iis170                -0.379565   0.091814  -4.1341 4.089e-05 ***
## iis171                 0.390506   0.091877   4.2503 2.487e-05 ***
## iis194                 0.274617   0.091866   2.9893 0.0029142 ** 
## iis379                -0.330873   0.098928  -3.3446 0.0008772 ***
## iis380                -1.006498   0.099048 -10.1617 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis383                 0.261839   0.098724   2.6522 0.0082142 ** 
## iis384                 0.816234   0.095990   8.5033 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis441                 0.314643   0.092136   3.4150 0.0006824 ***
## iis485                -0.322129   0.091644  -3.5150 0.0004740 ***
## iis533                 0.384083   0.091778   4.1849 3.294e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.1997     -0.200354   0.045728  -4.3814 1.399e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1994  -0.340947   0.069779  -4.8861 1.332e-06 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2001   0.203593   0.049354   4.1252 4.246e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015  -0.536052   0.069472  -7.7161 5.254e-14 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2017   0.349596   0.076749   4.5550 6.385e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)    1.1233  1 0.2892170    
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 13.6937  1 0.0002152 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.08797
## R-squared          0.99789
## Log-lik.(n=651)  693.68252

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1"
## 
## Date: Thu Oct 13 21:14:21 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651 
## Sample: 1 to 651 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                            coef  std.error  t-stat   p-value    
## ar1                    0.800393   0.020959 38.1881 < 2.2e-16 ***
## lgdp                  19.406316   7.546876  2.5714 0.0103711 *  
## lpop                 -20.154540   7.419912 -2.7163 0.0067953 ** 
## lgdp_sq               -0.206707   0.091196 -2.2666 0.0237738 *  
## idAustria             -0.510391   0.057782 -8.8330 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium             -0.439816   0.049997 -8.7968 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada              -0.114210   0.026640 -4.2872 2.113e-05 ***
## idDenmark             -0.280519   0.056642 -4.9525 9.576e-07 ***
## idFinland             -0.426829   0.049353 -8.6484 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance              -0.292893   0.037895 -7.7291 4.676e-14 ***
## idGermany              0.100816   0.027905  3.6128 0.0003287 ***
## idGreece              -0.335312   0.040734 -8.2318 1.184e-15 ***
## idIreland             -0.537525   0.060380 -8.9024 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly               -0.085507   0.025594 -3.3409 0.0008876 ***
## idJapan                0.193068   0.031905  6.0513 2.552e-09 ***
## idLuxembourg          -0.914055   0.112072 -8.1560 2.085e-15 ***
## idNetherlands         -0.238229   0.034662 -6.8730 1.601e-11 ***
## idNewZealand          -0.666576   0.074611 -8.9341 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal            -0.477160   0.053526 -8.9146 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain               -0.177788   0.029726 -5.9809 3.845e-09 ***
## idSweden              -0.595858   0.066120 -9.0118 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland         -0.837556   0.091483 -9.1554 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom       -0.062656   0.024657 -2.5411 0.0113049 *  
## idUnitedStates         0.487072   0.058045  8.3913 3.553e-16 ***
## time1991             -26.312526  10.736803 -2.4507 0.0145472 *  
## time1992             -25.884395  10.571383 -2.4485 0.0146334 *  
## time1993             -25.487901  10.422105 -2.4456 0.0147534 *  
## time1994             -25.210903  10.345409 -2.4369 0.0151071 *  
## time1995             -25.373641  10.383082 -2.4437 0.0148269 *  
## time1996             -25.451307  10.409189 -2.4451 0.0147728 *  
## time1997             -25.622695  10.442492 -2.4537 0.0144272 *  
## time1998             -25.147021  10.296587 -2.4423 0.0148873 *  
## time1999             -25.558416  10.411825 -2.4547 0.0143855 *  
## time2000             -26.124068  10.583391 -2.4684 0.0138537 *  
## time2001             -25.814363  10.482847 -2.4625 0.0140801 *  
## time2002             -25.828450  10.476519 -2.4654 0.0139704 *  
## time2003             -26.946874  10.826424 -2.4890 0.0130847 *  
## time2004             -27.885453  11.102703 -2.5116 0.0122843 *  
## time2005             -28.753595  11.366662 -2.5296 0.0116766 *  
## time2006             -29.463593  11.583425 -2.5436 0.0112253 *  
## time2007             -30.143141  11.776121 -2.5597 0.0107244 *  
## time2008             -30.391676  11.832420 -2.5685 0.0104581 *  
## time2009             -29.225557  11.448083 -2.5529 0.0109338 *  
## time2010             -30.199040  11.764549 -2.5670 0.0105047 *  
## time2011             -30.882930  11.943010 -2.5859 0.0099518 ** 
## time2012             -30.774255  11.909341 -2.5840 0.0100037 *  
## time2013             -30.701192  11.854974 -2.5897 0.0098418 ** 
## time2014             -30.351806  11.726349 -2.5883 0.0098811 ** 
## time2015             -28.978597  11.309681 -2.5623 0.0106454 *  
## time2016             -28.636033  11.180497 -2.5612 0.0106767 *  
## time2017             -28.967658  11.278055 -2.5685 0.0104585 *  
## time2018             -29.092485  11.282954 -2.5784 0.0101654 *  
## iis380                -0.961894   0.107345 -8.9608 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis383                 0.515204   0.109282  4.7144 3.027e-06 ***
## iis384                 0.803745   0.105532  7.6162 1.042e-13 ***
## fesisDenmark.1997     -0.248158   0.046616 -5.3234 1.449e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1994  -0.419534   0.074233 -5.6516 2.475e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002   0.272451   0.050953  5.3471 1.279e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015  -0.541590   0.076404 -7.0885 3.881e-12 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2017   0.343784   0.084367  4.0749 5.233e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)    6.6105  1   0.01014 *  
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 19.0890  1 1.248e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09678
## R-squared          0.99740
## Log-lik.(n=651)  626.56146
ETS (all phases)

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 17 19:50:55 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                     0.8234069  0.2754712   2.9891 0.0029160 ** 
## lpop                    -0.3774376  0.2054775  -1.8369 0.0667364 .  
## lgdp_sq                 -0.0129003  0.0052964  -2.4357 0.0151621 *  
## EU_ETS_05               -0.0903488  0.0335397  -2.6938 0.0072679 ** 
## EU_ETS_08               -0.0510405  0.0361990  -1.4100 0.1590731    
## EU_ETS_13               -0.1329779  0.0302322  -4.3986 1.296e-05 ***
## idAustria               -2.5152373  0.1571402 -16.0063 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.8404860  0.1154148 -15.9467 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.1430239  0.0978285  -1.4620 0.1442837    
## idDenmark               -1.8527979  0.2344890  -7.9014 1.381e-14 ***
## idFinland               -2.1334425  0.2332725  -9.1457 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -0.9132199  0.2151961  -4.2437 2.558e-05 ***
## idGermany                1.2560991  0.2624546   4.7860 2.159e-06 ***
## idGreece                -1.3721857  0.0958107 -14.3218 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.7739243  0.2760521 -10.0486 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  0.2102183  0.2069965   1.0156 0.3102583    
## idJapan                  1.5096248  0.3379819   4.4666 9.548e-06 ***
## idLuxembourg            -6.0826644  0.6956708  -8.7436 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.0692063  0.0533775 -20.0310 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.8274622  0.2817346 -13.5853 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.0936932  0.1020251 -20.5214 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.4572476  0.1566194  -2.9195 0.0036416 ** 
## idSweden                -2.9358521  0.1426624 -20.5790 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.3712026  0.1906712 -22.9253 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.6529795  0.2144730   3.0446 0.0024352 ** 
## idUnitedStates           3.4185946  0.4827376   7.0817 4.116e-12 ***
## time1990                 5.3130886  4.4397081   1.1967 0.2319020    
## time1991                 5.3775464  4.4398726   1.2112 0.2263118    
## time1992                 5.3718366  4.4392927   1.2101 0.2267440    
## time1993                 5.3406504  4.4411852   1.2025 0.2296471    
## time1994                 5.3630283  4.4404978   1.2078 0.2276317    
## time1995                 5.3739466  4.4382461   1.2108 0.2264525    
## time1996                 5.3974646  4.4385675   1.2160 0.2244628    
## time1997                 5.4162489  4.4399528   1.2199 0.2230003    
## time1998                 5.4432211  4.4400283   1.2259 0.2207151    
## time1999                 5.4515348  4.4399969   1.2278 0.2200085    
## time2000                 5.4602472  4.4412751   1.2294 0.2194057    
## time2001                 5.5098353  4.4420381   1.2404 0.2153322    
## time2002                 5.5280906  4.4405862   1.2449 0.2136683    
## time2003                 5.5440744  4.4375474   1.2494 0.2120364    
## time2004                 5.5397155  4.4351213   1.2491 0.2121458    
## time2005                 5.5982725  4.4363224   1.2619 0.2074831    
## time2006                 5.6061615  4.4358087   1.2638 0.2067918    
## time2007                 5.5697917  4.4336129   1.2563 0.2095232    
## time2008                 5.5499815  4.4293608   1.2530 0.2107086    
## time2009                 5.5052901  4.4325324   1.2420 0.2147289    
## time2010                 5.5443923  4.4318941   1.2510 0.2114286    
## time2011                 5.4623951  4.4302394   1.2330 0.2180803    
## time2012                 5.4632021  4.4318093   1.2327 0.2181752    
## time2013                 5.4913597  4.4316666   1.2391 0.2158003    
## time2014                 5.4103992  4.4320441   1.2207 0.2226758    
## time2015                 5.3956086  4.4355895   1.2164 0.2243113    
## time2016                 5.3907577  4.4348382   1.2155 0.2246492    
## time2017                 5.4135609  4.4343191   1.2208 0.2226430    
## time2018                 5.3487621  4.4333075   1.2065 0.2281161    
## time2019                 5.2603856  4.4342543   1.1863 0.2359844    
## time2020                 5.1540505  4.4355757   1.1620 0.2457190    
## time2021                 5.1862812  4.4328147   1.1700 0.2424892    
## iis181                   0.2855586  0.1079166   2.6461 0.0083623 ** 
## iis407                   0.9016079  0.1255388   7.1819 2.106e-12 ***
## iis408                   0.8940367  0.1252087   7.1404 2.783e-12 ***
## iis409                   0.8218400  0.1248766   6.5812 1.041e-10 ***
## iis410                   0.8634788  0.1248301   6.9172 1.215e-11 ***
## iis411                   0.5823357  0.1246603   4.6714 3.718e-06 ***
## iis414                  -0.8579414  0.1088862  -7.8792 1.622e-14 ***
## iis415                  -1.9279337  0.1085628 -17.7587 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.8356131  0.1080981 -16.9810 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.5653750  0.1080997 -14.4808 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.0350065  0.1079959  -9.5838 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisCanada.2005        -0.1525704  0.0404316  -3.7735 0.0001774 ***
## fesisAustria.2015        0.1904556  0.0445736   4.2728 2.254e-05 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001       -0.2326178  0.0386811  -6.0137 3.201e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.1999       -0.2873749  0.0582101  -4.9369 1.038e-06 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.2724796  0.0539979  -5.0461 6.033e-07 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017       -0.5585813  0.0541478 -10.3159 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSpain.1999          0.2077676  0.0424275   4.8970 1.262e-06 ***
## fesisFrance.2005         0.1862791  0.0387614   4.8058 1.963e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.1997 -0.1699793  0.0474943  -3.5789 0.0003737 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4251989  0.0495936  -8.5737 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     0.2547159  0.0819548   3.1080 0.0019753 ** 
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.3818983  0.0693727  -5.5050 5.538e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.7781807  0.0735477 -10.5806 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2013    0.3011498  0.0411307   7.3218 8.167e-13 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         0.1842093  0.0482645   3.8167 0.0001497 ***
## fesisJapan.2011          0.3406112  0.0480344   7.0910 3.869e-12 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998      0.1740664  0.0461349   3.7730 0.0001778 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016      0.1405722  0.0518155   2.7129 0.0068660 ** 
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.4988985  0.0504739   9.8843 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2010    -0.2678313  0.0478333  -5.5993 3.318e-08 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   124.469  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  40.438  1 2.029e-10 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09921
## R-squared          0.99739
## Log-lik.(n=672)  643.61170

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 17 19:51:13 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                     0.4873621  0.2870220   1.6980   0.09003 .  
## lpop                     0.1554354  0.2228043   0.6976   0.48568    
## lgdp_sq                 -0.0101027  0.0055392  -1.8239   0.06867 .  
## EU_ETS_05               -0.0486565  0.0395637  -1.2298   0.21924    
## EU_ETS_08               -0.0614412  0.0440583  -1.3945   0.16367    
## EU_ETS_13               -0.1427682  0.0346720  -4.1177 4.363e-05 ***
## idAustria               -2.3106813  0.1721143 -13.4253 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.9302463  0.1239198 -15.5766 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.5415688  0.0895193  -6.0497 2.552e-09 ***
## idDenmark               -1.5827927  0.2550194  -6.2066 1.010e-09 ***
## idFinland               -1.8210035  0.2540093  -7.1690 2.225e-12 ***
## idFrance                -1.3857181  0.2165131  -6.4002 3.127e-10 ***
## idGermany                0.6059795  0.2622086   2.3111   0.02117 *  
## idGreece                -1.4415572  0.1039709 -13.8650 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.3674263  0.2999684  -7.8923 1.411e-14 ***
## idItaly                 -0.3566389  0.2062527  -1.7291   0.08430 .  
## idJapan                  0.8488333  0.3351509   2.5327   0.01157 *  
## idLuxembourg            -3.9982167  0.7489190  -5.3387 1.329e-07 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.1256847  0.0567891 -19.8222 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.4914120  0.3035001 -11.5038 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.1594266  0.1105114 -19.5403 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.8142866  0.1604772  -5.0742 5.195e-07 ***
## idSweden                -2.7531517  0.1558731 -17.6628 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.0713997  0.2099192 -19.3951 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom         -0.0118547  0.2087043  -0.0568   0.95472    
## idUnitedStates           2.3529493  0.4899965   4.8020 1.986e-06 ***
## time1990                 3.5183805  4.8316997   0.7282   0.46678    
## time1991                 3.5843114  4.8319335   0.7418   0.45850    
## time1992                 3.5837775  4.8312889   0.7418   0.45851    
## time1993                 3.5394463  4.8335923   0.7323   0.46430    
## time1994                 3.5591921  4.8327939   0.7365   0.46173    
## time1995                 3.5947695  4.8286999   0.7445   0.45689    
## time1996                 3.6336459  4.8290061   0.7525   0.45207    
## time1997                 3.6364835  4.8308165   0.7528   0.45188    
## time1998                 3.6717006  4.8311258   0.7600   0.44755    
## time1999                 3.6772233  4.8311333   0.7612   0.44687    
## time2000                 3.6750373  4.8327032   0.7605   0.44728    
## time2001                 3.7104398  4.8336592   0.7676   0.44301    
## time2002                 3.7429524  4.8320384   0.7746   0.43887    
## time2003                 3.7914086  4.8281525   0.7853   0.43260    
## time2004                 3.8202051  4.8250564   0.7917   0.42882    
## time2005                 3.8565305  4.8267091   0.7990   0.42461    
## time2006                 3.8717926  4.8260065   0.8023   0.42271    
## time2007                 3.8559393  4.8232465   0.7994   0.42435    
## time2008                 3.8545339  4.8192380   0.7998   0.42413    
## time2009                 3.7894442  4.8230255   0.7857   0.43235    
## time2010                 3.8173754  4.8229798   0.7915   0.42897    
## time2011                 3.7645246  4.8209313   0.7809   0.43519    
## time2012                 3.7548299  4.8228086   0.7786   0.43655    
## time2013                 3.7932149  4.8233101   0.7864   0.43192    
## time2014                 3.7121781  4.8237071   0.7696   0.44186    
## time2015                 3.6822311  4.8280991   0.7627   0.44596    
## time2016                 3.6996355  4.8282154   0.7663   0.44383    
## time2017                 3.7297812  4.8275710   0.7726   0.44006    
## time2018                 3.6739865  4.8262995   0.7612   0.44681    
## time2019                 3.5804238  4.8274055   0.7417   0.45857    
## time2020                 3.4678647  4.8289381   0.7181   0.47295    
## time2021                 3.5200465  4.8255816   0.7295   0.46601    
## iis414                  -0.8309245  0.1334044  -6.2286 8.847e-10 ***
## iis415                  -1.9097855  0.1332009 -14.3376 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.8049667  0.1328586 -13.5856 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.5372891  0.1328689 -11.5700 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -0.9975797  0.1328253  -7.5105 2.142e-13 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.4858436  0.0495974  -9.7958 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017       -0.5859611  0.0672531  -8.7128 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.5339386  0.0588780  -9.0686 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -0.5836511  0.0742483  -7.8608 1.773e-14 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.3643730  0.0850583  -4.2838 2.139e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.8331121  0.0908952  -9.1656 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2013    0.2731869  0.0507450   5.3835 1.049e-07 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.3755901  0.0591933   6.3451 4.376e-10 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   231.41  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  64.08  1 1.221e-15 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.12380
## R-squared          0.99581
## Log-lik.(n=672)  485.82637
ETS (individual)

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_08"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 17 00:45:37 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                    -0.1417021  0.2576221  -0.5500 0.5825012    
## lpop                    -0.0162299  0.1979340  -0.0820 0.9346772    
## lgdp_sq                  0.0040696  0.0050383   0.8077 0.4195747    
## EU_ETS_08               -0.0526156  0.0236872  -2.2213 0.0267113 *  
## idAustria               -2.2284640  0.1519158 -14.6691 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.6590797  0.1125931 -14.7352 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.3312617  0.0958701  -3.4553 0.0005891 ***
## idDenmark               -1.5750354  0.2253224  -6.9901 7.453e-12 ***
## idFinland               -1.7623751  0.2256713  -7.8095 2.636e-14 ***
## idFrance                -1.2345589  0.2076504  -5.9454 4.723e-09 ***
## idGermany                0.7413263  0.2496661   2.9693 0.0031063 ** 
## idGreece                -1.2595843  0.0943764 -13.3464 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.3379872  0.2668942  -8.7600 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                 -0.1827877  0.1974197  -0.9259 0.3548851    
## idJapan                  0.8826502  0.3221518   2.7399 0.0063325 ** 
## idLuxembourg            -5.0356614  0.6719484  -7.4941 2.455e-13 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.0100761  0.0544455 -18.5521 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.4297387  0.2724774 -12.5872 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -1.9740448  0.1003114 -19.6792 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.7176795  0.1517124  -4.7305 2.805e-06 ***
## idSweden                -2.6813992  0.1369908 -19.5736 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.0237828  0.1831835 -21.9659 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.2801892  0.2063561   1.3578 0.1750479    
## idUnitedStates           2.4765174  0.4598665   5.3853 1.046e-07 ***
## time1990                12.9480429  4.3790720   2.9568 0.0032328 ** 
## time1991                13.0105746  4.3792239   2.9710 0.0030894 ** 
## time1992                13.0059655  4.3785500   2.9704 0.0030953 ** 
## time1993                12.9676324  4.3806310   2.9602 0.0031977 ** 
## time1994                12.9929015  4.3798167   2.9665 0.0031336 ** 
## time1995                13.0113769  4.3772738   2.9725 0.0030745 ** 
## time1996                13.0293682  4.3776031   2.9764 0.0030364 ** 
## time1997                13.0524839  4.3787868   2.9808 0.0029930 ** 
## time1998                13.0769613  4.3788727   2.9864 0.0029402 ** 
## time1999                13.0725722  4.3788688   2.9854 0.0029497 ** 
## time2000                13.0758157  4.3802793   2.9852 0.0029518 ** 
## time2001                13.1253228  4.3810676   2.9959 0.0028511 ** 
## time2002                13.1458182  4.3794907   3.0017 0.0027985 ** 
## time2003                13.1714031  4.3760718   3.0099 0.0027252 ** 
## time2004                13.1784535  4.3733677   3.0133 0.0026947 ** 
## time2005                13.1741691  4.3729619   3.0126 0.0027008 ** 
## time2006                13.1823910  4.3723676   3.0149 0.0026808 ** 
## time2007                13.1498253  4.3699481   3.0091 0.0027316 ** 
## time2008                13.1315003  4.3682807   3.0061 0.0027587 ** 
## time2009                13.0804706  4.3716727   2.9921 0.0028865 ** 
## time2010                13.1052844  4.3716565   2.9978 0.0028339 ** 
## time2011                13.0407109  4.3698566   2.9842 0.0029605 ** 
## time2012                13.0146898  4.3715835   2.9771 0.0030291 ** 
## time2013                12.9642080  4.3709343   2.9660 0.0031390 ** 
## time2014                12.8692976  4.3713932   2.9440 0.0033677 ** 
## time2015                12.8730428  4.3750267   2.9424 0.0033848 ** 
## time2016                12.8854390  4.3749743   2.9453 0.0033540 ** 
## time2017                12.8814514  4.3744599   2.9447 0.0033601 ** 
## time2018                12.8168610  4.3733548   2.9307 0.0035132 ** 
## time2019                12.7065424  4.3741239   2.9049 0.0038109 ** 
## time2020                12.5981145  4.3755078   2.8792 0.0041310 ** 
## time2021                12.6336272  4.3725379   2.8893 0.0040027 ** 
## iis181                   0.4034262  0.1107158   3.6438 0.0002923 ***
## iis407                   0.8463228  0.1314046   6.4406 2.470e-10 ***
## iis408                   0.8496428  0.1311313   6.4793 1.945e-10 ***
## iis409                   0.7911553  0.1308530   6.0461 2.633e-09 ***
## iis410                   0.8394462  0.1308255   6.4165 2.864e-10 ***
## iis411                   0.5680494  0.1306751   4.3470 1.625e-05 ***
## iis414                  -0.9101513  0.1137155  -8.0038 6.434e-15 ***
## iis415                  -1.9774081  0.1134110 -17.4358 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.8640745  0.1129968 -16.4967 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.5981111  0.1129935 -14.1434 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.0707953  0.1128938  -9.4850 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001       -0.2567053  0.0402056  -6.3848 3.478e-10 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2019    0.4017014  0.0658204   6.1030 1.886e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.4046499  0.0442661  -9.1413 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -0.5551857  0.0518498 -10.7076 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSpain.1999          0.1554019  0.0434626   3.5755 0.0003781 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.1997 -0.2036803  0.0494167  -4.1217 4.300e-05 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4876632  0.0509935  -9.5632 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     0.2880158  0.0854287   3.3714 0.0007967 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.4235116  0.0717981  -5.8986 6.177e-09 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.7930651  0.0766351 -10.3486 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.2638662  0.0440559   5.9893 3.664e-09 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          0.4746473  0.0478482   9.9199 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998      0.1994552  0.0475532   4.1944 3.157e-05 ***
## fesisAustralia.2015      0.2066315  0.0504395   4.0966 4.778e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.4795784  0.0506156   9.4749 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   153.867  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  46.318  1 1.006e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10401
## R-squared          0.99709
## Log-lik.(n=672)  608.36104

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq  + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 17 00:50:13 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                     0.0846298  0.2551770   0.3317 0.7402704    
## lpop                     0.0316762  0.1993696   0.1589 0.8738164    
## lgdp_sq                 -0.0010434  0.0050138  -0.2081 0.8352111    
## EU_ETS_13               -0.1223941  0.0270058  -4.5321 7.074e-06 ***
## idAustria               -2.2538962  0.1542014 -14.6166 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.6507445  0.1135951 -14.5318 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.3307920  0.0974298  -3.3952 0.0007320 ***
## idDenmark               -1.4101960  0.2284516  -6.1728 1.249e-09 ***
## idFinland               -1.7475659  0.2281052  -7.6612 7.611e-14 ***
## idFrance                -1.2168671  0.2099186  -5.7969 1.102e-08 ***
## idGermany                0.7685853  0.2524189   3.0449 0.0024317 ** 
## idGreece                -1.2792570  0.0961422 -13.3059 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.3160083  0.2697749  -8.5850 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                 -0.1745125  0.1994836  -0.8748 0.3820277    
## idJapan                  0.9166750  0.3274319   2.7996 0.0052845 ** 
## idLuxembourg            -4.9568954  0.6796000  -7.2938 9.768e-13 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.0027349  0.0549195 -18.2583 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.4218048  0.2763128 -12.3838 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -1.9956539  0.1022568 -19.5161 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.7306771  0.1531530  -4.7709 2.315e-06 ***
## idSweden                -2.6911047  0.1401700 -19.1989 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -3.9614877  0.1836469 -21.5712 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.2418112  0.2066552   1.1701 0.2424263    
## idUnitedStates           2.5406792  0.4653449   5.4598 7.036e-08 ***
## time1990                 9.7382141  4.4205776   2.2029 0.0279863 *  
## time1991                 9.8021128  4.4207633   2.2173 0.0269843 *  
## time1992                 9.8002062  4.4201085   2.2172 0.0269913 *  
## time1993                 9.7587990  4.4222289   2.2068 0.0277158 *  
## time1994                 9.7869637  4.4214256   2.2135 0.0272435 *  
## time1995                 9.8122343  4.4188785   2.2205 0.0267628 *  
## time1996                 9.8501356  4.4191928   2.2289 0.0261941 *  
## time1997                 9.8420338  4.4198828   2.2268 0.0263404 *  
## time1998                 9.8695530  4.4198537   2.2330 0.0259236 *  
## time1999                 9.8891067  4.4202541   2.2372 0.0256448 *  
## time2000                 9.8904393  4.4216964   2.2368 0.0256730 *  
## time2001                 9.9395115  4.4224904   2.2475 0.0249779 *  
## time2002                 9.9636517  4.4209273   2.2537 0.0245789 *  
## time2003                 9.9977091  4.4175079   2.2632 0.0239864 *  
## time2004                10.0054302  4.4148409   2.2663 0.0237939 *  
## time2005                10.0033924  4.4144594   2.2661 0.0238103 *  
## time2006                10.0142995  4.4138902   2.2688 0.0236406 *  
## time2007                 9.9793032  4.4115933   2.2621 0.0240571 *  
## time2008                 9.9273919  4.4103414   2.2509 0.0247576 *  
## time2009                 9.8713366  4.4137738   2.2365 0.0256936 *  
## time2010                 9.8973825  4.4137812   2.2424 0.0253080 *  
## time2011                 9.8170870  4.4121647   2.2250 0.0264589 *  
## time2012                 9.8114566  4.4138803   2.2229 0.0266038 *  
## time2013                 9.8478699  4.4150090   2.2305 0.0260872 *  
## time2014                 9.7521331  4.4154577   2.2086 0.0275844 *  
## time2015                 9.7247981  4.4192939   2.2005 0.0281566 *  
## time2016                 9.7300491  4.4188628   2.2019 0.0280568 *  
## time2017                 9.7552365  4.4183046   2.2079 0.0276348 *  
## time2018                 9.6939510  4.4172214   2.1946 0.0285833 *  
## time2019                 9.6019820  4.4182531   2.1733 0.0301590 *  
## time2020                 9.4921319  4.4196617   2.1477 0.0321445 *  
## time2021                 9.5337712  4.4166943   2.1586 0.0312863 *  
## iis407                   0.8635937  0.1322430   6.5304 1.419e-10 ***
## iis408                   0.8658608  0.1319737   6.5609 1.173e-10 ***
## iis409                   0.8055325  0.1316988   6.1165 1.744e-09 ***
## iis410                   0.8566105  0.1316717   6.5057 1.654e-10 ***
## iis411                   0.5831917  0.1315221   4.4342 1.103e-05 ***
## iis414                  -0.8758234  0.1144505  -7.6524 8.101e-14 ***
## iis415                  -1.9462411  0.1141394 -17.0514 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.8561054  0.1137602 -16.3160 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.5894021  0.1137667 -13.9707 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.0620971  0.1136730  -9.3434 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustria.2015        0.1751668  0.0469274   3.7327 0.0002078 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001       -0.2554357  0.0405036  -6.3065 5.606e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.1999       -0.3237693  0.0601552  -5.3822 1.064e-07 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.2792991  0.0568015  -4.9171 1.141e-06 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017       -0.5626952  0.0570849  -9.8572 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSpain.1999          0.1614567  0.0437080   3.6940 0.0002413 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.1999 -0.1441167  0.0460136  -3.1320 0.0018221 ** 
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4684268  0.0525436  -8.9150 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     0.2729654  0.0859931   3.1743 0.0015805 ** 
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.3897209  0.0730373  -5.3359 1.358e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.8029273  0.0772684 -10.3914 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.2932791  0.0448230   6.5431 1.311e-10 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         0.1498471  0.0505054   2.9670 0.0031297 ** 
## fesisJapan.2011          0.4216090  0.0480553   8.7734 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998      0.1456007  0.0535471   2.7191 0.0067387 ** 
## fesisAustralia.2007      0.1816116  0.0483269   3.7580 0.0001883 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.4623200  0.0504534   9.1633 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   147.451  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  63.431  1 1.665e-15 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10471
## R-squared          0.99706
## Log-lik.(n=672)  604.37013

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_05"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 17 19:09:13 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                     0.0039745  0.2656251   0.0150 0.9880668    
## lpop                    -0.2566884  0.2071683  -1.2390 0.2158251    
## lgdp_sq                  0.0022435  0.0051326   0.4371 0.6621967    
## EU_ETS_05               -0.0816047  0.0242449  -3.3659 0.0008126 ***
## idAustria               -2.3754454  0.1574640 -15.0856 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.9226744  0.1131683 -16.9895 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.2286721  0.0984204  -2.3234 0.0204949 *  
## idDenmark               -1.8264696  0.2346455  -7.7840 3.159e-14 ***
## idFinland               -1.9936072  0.2341914  -8.5127 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -1.0614331  0.2142989  -4.9530 9.549e-07 ***
## idGermany                1.0443146  0.2601329   4.0145 6.723e-05 ***
## idGreece                -1.3187324  0.0961304 -13.7182 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.6167998  0.2771431  -9.4421 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  0.0617652  0.2059362   0.2999 0.7643406    
## idJapan                  1.2469578  0.3337515   3.7362 0.0002050 ***
## idLuxembourg            -5.0048665  0.6990149  -7.1599 2.408e-12 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.0342678  0.0554634 -18.6477 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.7167795  0.2820491 -13.1778 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.0386280  0.1021808 -19.9512 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.5500175  0.1577354  -3.4870 0.0005248 ***
## idSweden                -2.8130614  0.1420743 -19.7999 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.2547404  0.1926388 -22.0866 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.5059677  0.2142345   2.3617 0.0185124 *  
## idUnitedStates           3.0108143  0.4779097   6.3000 5.819e-10 ***
## time1990                14.3845112  4.4488025   3.2333 0.0012917 ** 
## time1991                14.4476668  4.4490689   3.2473 0.0012308 ** 
## time1992                14.4387495  4.4485534   3.2457 0.0012378 ** 
## time1993                14.4073390  4.4506213   3.2372 0.0012749 ** 
## time1994                14.4174484  4.4499678   3.2399 0.0012629 ** 
## time1995                14.4402468  4.4472959   3.2470 0.0012324 ** 
## time1996                14.4586822  4.4476413   3.2509 0.0012160 ** 
## time1997                14.4830077  4.4488468   3.2555 0.0011969 ** 
## time1998                14.5075777  4.4489529   3.2609 0.0011745 ** 
## time1999                14.5013448  4.4489679   3.2595 0.0011803 ** 
## time2000                14.5080137  4.4503804   3.2599 0.0011784 ** 
## time2001                14.5459191  4.4512693   3.2678 0.0011467 ** 
## time2002                14.5631853  4.4497177   3.2728 0.0011269 ** 
## time2003                14.5810822  4.4463503   3.2793 0.0011017 ** 
## time2004                14.5787296  4.4437033   3.2808 0.0010962 ** 
## time2005                14.6246740  4.4434844   3.2913 0.0010568 ** 
## time2006                14.6318152  4.4429175   3.2933 0.0010494 ** 
## time2007                14.5948175  4.4405345   3.2867 0.0010737 ** 
## time2008                14.5370246  4.4392857   3.2746 0.0011199 ** 
## time2009                14.4919070  4.4426841   3.2620 0.0011701 ** 
## time2010                14.5170298  4.4426843   3.2676 0.0011474 ** 
## time2011                14.4497807  4.4409039   3.2538 0.0012037 ** 
## time2012                14.4447440  4.4426266   3.2514 0.0012137 ** 
## time2013                14.3938268  4.4419795   3.2404 0.0012607 ** 
## time2014                14.2985289  4.4424594   3.2186 0.0013587 ** 
## time2015                14.2811800  4.4461403   3.2120 0.0013896 ** 
## time2016                14.2762110  4.4458687   3.2111 0.0013940 ** 
## time2017                14.2714441  4.4453760   3.2104 0.0013974 ** 
## time2018                14.2052847  4.4442914   3.1963 0.0014663 ** 
## time2019                14.1364351  4.4452766   3.1801 0.0015493 ** 
## time2020                14.0311182  4.4467507   3.1554 0.0016845 ** 
## time2021                14.0555280  4.4437452   3.1630 0.0016417 ** 
## iis181                   0.3959398  0.1118600   3.5396 0.0004323 ***
## iis414                  -0.9407783  0.1148874  -8.1887 1.634e-15 ***
## iis415                  -2.0068808  0.1145831 -17.5146 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.8933566  0.1141689 -16.5838 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.6257628  0.1141507 -14.2423 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.0844171  0.1140798  -9.5058 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis619                  -0.4281181  0.1151689  -3.7173 0.0002205 ***
## iis620                  -0.4488667  0.1151836  -3.8970 0.0001085 ***
## iis621                  -0.3140822  0.1151764  -2.7270 0.0065817 ** 
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    0.3252205  0.0503035   6.4652 2.120e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.3152794  0.0489461  -6.4414 2.456e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012       -0.3804190  0.0559407  -6.8004 2.559e-11 ***
## fesisSpain.1999          0.1964226  0.0442671   4.4372 1.087e-05 ***
## fesisFrance.2005         0.1532733  0.0404016   3.7937 0.0001637 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.1997 -0.1837951  0.0499844  -3.6770 0.0002575 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4577310  0.0516289  -8.8658 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -0.7818678  0.0906810  -8.6222 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     0.3256873  0.0863412   3.7721 0.0001782 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.4170632  0.0724988  -5.7527 1.410e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.7619650  0.0775351  -9.8274 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.2865852  0.0445025   6.4398 2.480e-10 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          0.4830469  0.0467429  10.3341 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998      0.2098304  0.0482186   4.3517 1.592e-05 ***
## fesisAustralia.2015      0.2377768  0.0510245   4.6600 3.910e-06 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.4910132  0.0514839   9.5372 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   150.215  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  47.986  1 4.293e-12 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10509
## R-squared          0.99703
## Log-lik.(n=672)  600.94762
ETS (pairs)

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 17 00:55:06 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                     0.6947671  0.2745520   2.5305 0.0116491 *  
## lpop                    -0.1521915  0.1982275  -0.7678 0.4429381    
## lgdp_sq                 -0.0112513  0.0053046  -2.1210 0.0343396 *  
## EU_ETS_08               -0.0875924  0.0279653  -3.1322 0.0018217 ** 
## EU_ETS_13               -0.1313350  0.0304214  -4.3172 1.855e-05 ***
## idAustria               -2.3566489  0.1526363 -15.4396 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.7271893  0.1123416 -15.3744 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.2940143  0.0954449  -3.0805 0.0021637 ** 
## idDenmark               -1.6090796  0.2269257  -7.0908 3.854e-12 ***
## idFinland               -1.8962219  0.2260617  -8.3881 3.700e-16 ***
## idFrance                -1.1090249  0.2086338  -5.3157 1.513e-07 ***
## idGermany                0.9807747  0.2530802   3.8754 0.0001185 ***
## idGreece                -1.2961358  0.0941366 -13.7687 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.4914069  0.2673665  -9.3183 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                 -0.0079917  0.1996379  -0.0400 0.9680820    
## idJapan                  1.1765504  0.3271589   3.5963 0.0003500 ***
## idLuxembourg            -5.3655809  0.6731259  -7.9711 8.254e-15 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.0277877  0.0532801 -19.2903 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.5499957  0.2732228 -12.9930 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.0120510  0.1001568 -20.0890 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.6160122  0.1519279  -4.0546 5.700e-05 ***
## idSweden                -2.7919729  0.1386513 -20.1366 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.1466921  0.1837679 -22.5648 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.4356260  0.2076822   2.0976 0.0363717 *  
## idUnitedStates           2.9338584  0.4659352   6.2967 5.967e-10 ***
## time1990                 3.8071425  4.4418093   0.8571 0.3917316    
## time1991                 3.8709191  4.4419459   0.8714 0.3838672    
## time1992                 3.8662459  4.4413562   0.8705 0.3843781    
## time1993                 3.8308954  4.4432028   0.8622 0.3889344    
## time1994                 3.8550013  4.4425165   0.8678 0.3858855    
## time1995                 3.8707877  4.4402885   0.8717 0.3837059    
## time1996                 3.8940204  4.4405968   0.8769 0.3808928    
## time1997                 3.9094204  4.4419369   0.8801 0.3791572    
## time1998                 3.9330549  4.4419169   0.8854 0.3762821    
## time1999                 3.9418242  4.4418787   0.8874 0.3752154    
## time2000                 3.9475238  4.4431203   0.8885 0.3746592    
## time2001                 3.9964429  4.4438665   0.8993 0.3688534    
## time2002                 4.0170830  4.4424165   0.9043 0.3662311    
## time2003                 4.0393867  4.4394057   0.9099 0.3632527    
## time2004                 4.0372349  4.4369953   0.9099 0.3632478    
## time2005                 4.0333373  4.4366402   0.9091 0.3636725    
## time2006                 4.0419604  4.4361124   0.9111 0.3625914    
## time2007                 4.0091454  4.4339213   0.9042 0.3662617    
## time2008                 4.0168365  4.4307249   0.9066 0.3649980    
## time2009                 3.9592395  4.4340269   0.8929 0.3722656    
## time2010                 3.9969551  4.4334032   0.9016 0.3676639    
## time2011                 3.9158270  4.4317638   0.8836 0.3772842    
## time2012                 3.9137550  4.4333016   0.8828 0.3777019    
## time2013                 3.9560592  4.4336068   0.8923 0.3726042    
## time2014                 3.8599236  4.4340284   0.8705 0.3843711    
## time2015                 3.8649676  4.4374665   0.8710 0.3841189    
## time2016                 3.8679197  4.4371219   0.8717 0.3837191    
## time2017                 3.8646153  4.4366567   0.8711 0.3840755    
## time2018                 3.8009841  4.4356329   0.8569 0.3918392    
## time2019                 3.7108261  4.4365536   0.8364 0.4032591    
## time2020                 3.6025806  4.4378529   0.8118 0.4172449    
## time2021                 3.6386769  4.4351023   0.8204 0.4123064    
## iis181                   0.2873854  0.1096851   2.6201 0.0090184 ** 
## iis407                   0.8959840  0.1275626   7.0239 6.006e-12 ***
## iis408                   0.8901838  0.1272403   6.9961 7.214e-12 ***
## iis409                   0.8198687  0.1269147   6.4600 2.202e-10 ***
## iis410                   0.8639732  0.1268711   6.8098 2.426e-11 ***
## iis411                   0.5834265  0.1267026   4.6047 5.069e-06 ***
## iis414                  -0.8498296  0.1105784  -7.6853 6.461e-14 ***
## iis415                  -1.9177969  0.1102461 -17.3956 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.8247909  0.1097751 -16.6230 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.5561242  0.1097947 -14.1730 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.0273974  0.1097062  -9.3650 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustria.2015        0.1792023  0.0453657   3.9502 8.761e-05 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001       -0.2426647  0.0391339  -6.2009 1.060e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.1999       -0.2845554  0.0591613  -4.8098 1.923e-06 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.2312506  0.0561249  -4.1203 4.329e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -0.5290335  0.0508416 -10.4055 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSpain.1999          0.1901515  0.0426700   4.4563 9.991e-06 ***
## fesisFrance.2009         0.1631529  0.0392207   4.1599 3.661e-05 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.1997 -0.1712095  0.0481262  -3.5575 0.0004047 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4419046  0.0503180  -8.7822 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     0.2425086  0.0831006   2.9183 0.0036550 ** 
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.4029179  0.0704794  -5.7168 1.730e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.7893930  0.0744641 -10.6010 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.3032950  0.0433780   6.9919 7.415e-12 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         0.1671290  0.0489146   3.4167 0.0006776 ***
## fesisJapan.2011          0.3669851  0.0483321   7.5930 1.240e-13 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998      0.2283784  0.0453920   5.0312 6.490e-07 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.5145246  0.0509178  10.1050 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2010    -0.2473600  0.0475780  -5.1990 2.772e-07 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   132.302  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  42.421  1 7.358e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10084
## R-squared          0.99729
## Log-lik.(n=672)  631.17691

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq  + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 17 19:32:20 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                    -0.5266446  0.3167767  -1.6625 0.0969424 .  
## lpop                    -0.1618734  0.2086432  -0.7758 0.4381558    
## lgdp_sq                  0.0122828  0.0060762   2.0215 0.0436844 *  
## EU_ETS_05               -0.0994579  0.0353355  -2.8147 0.0050460 ** 
## EU_ETS_08               -0.0347965  0.0336418  -1.0343 0.3014085    
## idAustria               -2.3090771  0.1583005 -14.5867 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.7242078  0.1169661 -14.7411 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.2527970  0.0993385  -2.5448 0.0111879 *  
## idDenmark               -1.7186321  0.2362931  -7.2733 1.123e-12 ***
## idFinland               -1.8870045  0.2359969  -7.9959 6.834e-15 ***
## idFrance                -1.2069723  0.2187542  -5.5175 5.157e-08 ***
## idGermany                0.8430699  0.2677266   3.1490 0.0017213 ** 
## idGreece                -1.2798720  0.0964299 -13.2726 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.4933805  0.2790771  -8.9344 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                 -0.0855649  0.2106439  -0.4062 0.6847385    
## idJapan                  0.9664920  0.3455572   2.7969 0.0053279 ** 
## idLuxembourg            -4.7334882  0.7006940  -6.7554 3.426e-11 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.0343618  0.0541019 -19.1188 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.5954703  0.2831669 -12.6974 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -1.9966636  0.1025701 -19.4663 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.6303054  0.1589079  -3.9665 8.192e-05 ***
## idSweden                -2.7867726  0.1445394 -19.2804 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.1813541  0.1923943 -21.7333 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.3756575  0.2177112   1.7255 0.0849645 .  
## idUnitedStates           2.6572207  0.4906497   5.4157 8.903e-08 ***
## time1990                19.8150849  4.7032877   4.2130 2.915e-05 ***
## time1991                19.8770351  4.7033645   4.2261 2.755e-05 ***
## time1992                19.8673348  4.7027782   4.2246 2.773e-05 ***
## time1993                19.8351464  4.7045690   4.2161 2.876e-05 ***
## time1994                19.8449806  4.7039199   4.2188 2.843e-05 ***
## time1995                19.8666132  4.7013123   4.2258 2.759e-05 ***
## time1996                19.8843728  4.7015617   4.2293 2.717e-05 ***
## time1997                19.9125475  4.7028457   4.2341 2.661e-05 ***
## time1998                19.9391236  4.7031028   4.2396 2.600e-05 ***
## time1999                19.9337660  4.7031178   4.2384 2.613e-05 ***
## time2000                19.9395364  4.7042944   4.2386 2.611e-05 ***
## time2001                19.9892091  4.7049998   4.2485 2.501e-05 ***
## time2002                20.0048501  4.7033440   4.2533 2.449e-05 ***
## time2003                20.0214641  4.7000757   4.2598 2.381e-05 ***
## time2004                20.0204568  4.6973293   4.2621 2.358e-05 ***
## time2005                20.0941272  4.7025177   4.2731 2.248e-05 ***
## time2006                20.0998808  4.7018075   4.2749 2.230e-05 ***
## time2007                20.0606824  4.6993296   4.2688 2.290e-05 ***
## time2008                20.0255584  4.6957787   4.2646 2.333e-05 ***
## time2009                19.9811832  4.6989711   4.2522 2.461e-05 ***
## time2010                20.0050504  4.6988033   4.2575 2.406e-05 ***
## time2011                19.9356685  4.6968973   4.2444 2.546e-05 ***
## time2012                19.9142052  4.6985238   4.2384 2.613e-05 ***
## time2013                19.8622155  4.6978456   4.2279 2.733e-05 ***
## time2014                19.7667274  4.6982005   4.2073 2.987e-05 ***
## time2015                19.7879554  4.7018887   4.2085 2.972e-05 ***
## time2016                19.7822608  4.7014583   4.2077 2.982e-05 ***
## time2017                19.7760742  4.7008167   4.2069 2.992e-05 ***
## time2018                19.7080635  4.6995809   4.1936 3.168e-05 ***
## time2019                19.6003974  4.7003491   4.1700 3.504e-05 ***
## time2020                19.4942567  4.7016376   4.1463 3.876e-05 ***
## time2021                19.5226330  4.6986219   4.1550 3.736e-05 ***
## iis181                   0.4041521  0.1078438   3.7476 0.0001961 ***
## iis414                  -0.9551345  0.1113307  -8.5793 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis415                  -2.0228128  0.1110561 -18.2143 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.9070002  0.1105579 -17.2489 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.6414228  0.1106016 -14.8409 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.1125809  0.1105106 -10.0676 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisCanada.2005        -0.1529373  0.0442790  -3.4539 0.0005921 ***
## fesisUnitedStates.2005  -0.1550313  0.0516504  -3.0016 0.0027998 ** 
## fesisBelgium.2001       -0.2385467  0.0394249  -6.0507 2.567e-09 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2019    0.3760550  0.0648588   5.7981 1.095e-08 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.3843831  0.0433409  -8.8688 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -0.5490174  0.0506198 -10.8459 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSpain.1999          0.1625425  0.0434995   3.7366 0.0002046 ***
## fesisFrance.2005         0.1211721  0.0399055   3.0365 0.0024994 ** 
## fesisUnitedKingdom.1997 -0.2203990  0.0488864  -4.5084 7.884e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4703732  0.0502838  -9.3544 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1995    -0.7649650  0.0876101  -8.7315 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     0.3311869  0.0837948   3.9524 8.678e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.4060083  0.0700332  -5.7974 1.099e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.7717227  0.0750513 -10.2826 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.2741379  0.0431246   6.3569 4.129e-10 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         0.1537088  0.0487753   3.1514 0.0017076 ** 
## fesisJapan.2012          0.4433046  0.0470046   9.4311 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998      0.1574071  0.0482575   3.2618 0.0011710 ** 
## fesisAustralia.2016      0.1905241  0.0530720   3.5899 0.0003583 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.4554003  0.0500403   9.1007 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   135.794  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  40.616  1 1.852e-10 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10131
## R-squared          0.99725
## Log-lik.(n=672)  626.58720

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 17 19:43:03 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                              coef std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                     0.752461  0.272164   2.7647 0.0058769 ** 
## lpop                    -0.379351  0.205614  -1.8450 0.0655480 .  
## lgdp_sq                 -0.011422  0.005220  -2.1881 0.0290557 *  
## EU_ETS_05               -0.119437  0.026158  -4.5660 6.066e-06 ***
## EU_ETS_13               -0.145496  0.028358  -5.1307 3.936e-07 ***
## idAustria               -2.513318  0.157242 -15.9838 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -1.838921  0.115490 -15.9228 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.147259  0.097859  -1.5048 0.1329121    
## idDenmark               -1.850103  0.234644  -7.8847 1.555e-14 ***
## idFinland               -2.129137  0.233414  -9.1217 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -0.924551  0.215223  -4.2958 2.039e-05 ***
## idGermany                1.239048  0.262421   4.7216 2.933e-06 ***
## idGreece                -1.366471  0.095789 -14.2654 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.769747  0.276228 -10.0271 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  0.199676  0.207037   0.9644 0.3352212    
## idJapan                  1.485108  0.337850   4.3958 1.312e-05 ***
## idLuxembourg            -6.079046  0.696147  -8.7324 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.064994  0.053244 -20.0022 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.821454  0.281901 -13.5560 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.087469  0.101999 -20.4656 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.460000  0.156717  -2.9352 0.0034642 ** 
## idSweden                -2.935493  0.142762 -20.5622 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.369158  0.190798 -22.8994 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.643538  0.214535   2.9997 0.0028177 ** 
## idUnitedStates           3.383738  0.482562   7.0120 6.516e-12 ***
## time1990                 6.187346  4.410254   1.4029 0.1611645    
## time1991                 6.251489  4.410445   1.4174 0.1568911    
## time1992                 6.245266  4.409901   1.4162 0.1572525    
## time1993                 6.214531  4.411773   1.4086 0.1594784    
## time1994                 6.236402  4.411120   1.4138 0.1579561    
## time1995                 6.246239  4.408937   1.4167 0.1570974    
## time1996                 6.269613  4.409273   1.4219 0.1555846    
## time1997                 6.289073  4.410619   1.4259 0.1544334    
## time1998                 6.316025  4.410699   1.4320 0.1526850    
## time1999                 6.324298  4.410675   1.4339 0.1521469    
## time2000                 6.333266  4.411942   1.4355 0.1516850    
## time2001                 6.382935  4.412708   1.4465 0.1485765    
## time2002                 6.400460  4.411303   1.4509 0.1473383    
## time2003                 6.414975  4.408357   1.4552 0.1461553    
## time2004                 6.409433  4.406010   1.4547 0.1462889    
## time2005                 6.488419  4.405428   1.4728 0.1413373    
## time2006                 6.495780  4.404953   1.4747 0.1408445    
## time2007                 6.458253  4.402832   1.4668 0.1429577    
## time2008                 6.401192  4.401722   1.4542 0.1464150    
## time2009                 6.357372  4.404851   1.4433 0.1494817    
## time2010                 6.395617  4.404274   1.4521 0.1470001    
## time2011                 6.312191  4.402717   1.4337 0.1521920    
## time2012                 6.313348  4.404272   1.4335 0.1522615    
## time2013                 6.364800  4.403220   1.4455 0.1488574    
## time2014                 6.268851  4.403667   1.4236 0.1551101    
## time2015                 6.255096  4.407156   1.4193 0.1563438    
## time2016                 6.249560  4.406416   1.4183 0.1566406    
## time2017                 6.271813  4.405930   1.4235 0.1551271    
## time2018                 6.206355  4.404961   1.4089 0.1593832    
## time2019                 6.118074  4.405908   1.3886 0.1654817    
## time2020                 6.011982  4.407221   1.3641 0.1730550    
## time2021                 6.043054  4.404528   1.3720 0.1705873    
## iis181                   0.285818  0.107991   2.6467 0.0083479 ** 
## iis407                   0.898733  0.125614   7.1547 2.524e-12 ***
## iis408                   0.891664  0.125287   7.1169 3.249e-12 ***
## iis409                   0.820204  0.124959   6.5638 1.159e-10 ***
## iis410                   0.861457  0.124910   6.8966 1.388e-11 ***
## iis411                   0.580989  0.124744   4.6574 3.967e-06 ***
## iis414                  -0.861695  0.108935  -7.9102 1.293e-14 ***
## iis415                  -1.931619  0.108613 -17.7845 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis416                  -1.839176  0.108149 -17.0059 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                  -1.569186  0.108147 -14.5097 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                  -1.038871  0.108043  -9.6153 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisCanada.2005        -0.151356  0.040452  -3.7416 0.0002009 ***
## fesisAustria.2015        0.191316  0.044613   4.2884 2.106e-05 ***
## fesisBelgium.2001       -0.233196  0.038701  -6.0256 2.984e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.1999       -0.287132  0.058250  -4.9293 1.077e-06 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.273048  0.054030  -5.0537 5.806e-07 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017       -0.557095  0.054197 -10.2791 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSpain.1999          0.204526  0.042422   4.8213 1.822e-06 ***
## fesisFrance.2005         0.183047  0.038751   4.7236 2.905e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.1997 -0.175308  0.047446  -3.6949 0.0002407 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.424492  0.049638  -8.5518 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1997     0.257852  0.081986   3.1451 0.0017448 ** 
## fesisLuxembourg.2013    -0.386575  0.069389  -5.5711 3.867e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.772327  0.073612 -10.4918 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.311752  0.042640   7.3113 8.754e-13 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         0.184967  0.048306   3.8290 0.0001426 ***
## fesisJapan.2011          0.352780  0.047392   7.4440 3.521e-13 ***
## fesisAustralia.1998      0.172542  0.046163   3.7377 0.0002040 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016      0.144986  0.051845   2.7966 0.0053351 ** 
## fesisNewZealand.1997     0.497991  0.050503   9.8607 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2010    -0.255727  0.047196  -5.4184 8.803e-08 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   124.822  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  39.865  1 2.721e-10 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09928
## R-squared          0.99738
## Log-lik.(n=672)  642.64572

2000-2021

AR = 0

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Thu Oct 13 14:42:39 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                    -1.3118200  0.3867852  -3.3916 0.0007634 ***
## lpop                    -0.6563607  0.2405335  -2.7288 0.0066347 ** 
## lgdp_sq                  0.0285978  0.0072513   3.9438 9.452e-05 ***
## idAustria               -2.9036004  0.1979236 -14.6703 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.4613900  0.1441919 -17.0702 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.3246438  0.1022886  -3.1738 0.0016197 ** 
## idDenmark               -2.8386097  0.2887067  -9.8322 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -2.5815875  0.2886189  -8.9446 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -0.9409054  0.2357602  -3.9909 7.816e-05 ***
## idGermany                1.0649283  0.2835857   3.7552 0.0001986 ***
## idGreece                -1.7234127  0.1297340 -13.2842 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.4029148  0.3351404 -10.1537 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  0.0881913  0.2198345   0.4012 0.6885061    
## idJapan                  1.4387344  0.3808434   3.7778 0.0001820 ***
## idLuxembourg            -8.2662498  0.8142956 -10.1514 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.3649646  0.0666696 -20.4736 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.9077347  0.3216848 -12.1477 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.4502190  0.1377155 -17.7919 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.3810010  0.1708440  -2.2301 0.0262888 *  
## idSweden                -3.4319226  0.1806565 -18.9969 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.8037365  0.2295059 -20.9308 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.3083839  0.2255000   1.3676 0.1722114    
## idUnitedStates           3.2471744  0.5624986   5.7728 1.556e-08 ***
## time2000                37.8073856  5.7191969   6.6106 1.213e-10 ***
## time2001                37.8485614  5.7200772   6.6168 1.168e-10 ***
## time2002                37.8623355  5.7185763   6.6209 1.139e-10 ***
## time2003                37.8665844  5.7165038   6.6241 1.118e-10 ***
## time2004                37.8376054  5.7146730   6.6211 1.138e-10 ***
## time2005                37.8299730  5.7144756   6.6200 1.146e-10 ***
## time2006                37.8336574  5.7141307   6.6211 1.138e-10 ***
## time2007                37.7855566  5.7123818   6.6147 1.184e-10 ***
## time2008                37.7208836  5.7113755   6.6045 1.259e-10 ***
## time2009                37.6893835  5.7141917   6.5958 1.328e-10 ***
## time2010                37.7132585  5.7141660   6.6000 1.295e-10 ***
## time2011                37.6371410  5.7126571   6.5884 1.389e-10 ***
## time2012                37.6294798  5.7140074   6.5855 1.414e-10 ***
## time2013                37.5586418  5.7142574   6.5728 1.527e-10 ***
## time2014                37.4892599  5.7145837   6.5603 1.647e-10 ***
## time2015                37.4992084  5.7178259   6.5583 1.667e-10 ***
## time2016                37.4834012  5.7163306   6.5572 1.678e-10 ***
## time2017                37.4753906  5.7159858   6.5562 1.688e-10 ***
## time2018                37.4032883  5.7150826   6.5447 1.811e-10 ***
## time2019                37.3325294  5.7158615   6.5314 1.962e-10 ***
## time2020                37.2330316  5.7172080   6.5125 2.200e-10 ***
## time2021                37.2337641  5.7147000   6.5154 2.160e-10 ***
## iis267                  -0.5432931  0.1461433  -3.7175 0.0002296 ***
## iis409                  -0.3182203  0.1116416  -2.8504 0.0045905 ** 
## iis410                  -0.3456947  0.1116532  -3.0961 0.0020972 ** 
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    0.3317596  0.0507965   6.5312 1.965e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.2014       -0.4908266  0.0509624  -9.6311 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisFinland.2012       -0.2045813  0.0451892  -4.5272 7.874e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4640709  0.0509257  -9.1127 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.0999764  0.1113707   9.8767 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -1.0041745  0.0601759 -16.6873 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.2487909  0.0463600   5.3665 1.356e-07 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         0.2342270  0.0509290   4.5991 5.686e-06 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          0.4922890  0.0467278  10.5352 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016      0.2611215  0.0539772   4.8376 1.872e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   69.8421  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  8.8126  1  0.002992 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10084
## R-squared          0.99731
## Log-lik.(n=462)  433.35825

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Thu Oct 13 14:42:42 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                    -1.5615282  0.4188601  -3.7280 0.0002202 ***
## lpop                    -0.3444907  0.2562878  -1.3442 0.1796431    
## lgdp_sq                  0.0323930  0.0078545   4.1241 4.510e-05 ***
## idAustria               -2.6565007  0.2108553 -12.5987 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.2852923  0.1537120 -14.8674 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.4563995  0.1091078  -4.1830 3.522e-05 ***
## idDenmark               -2.4852241  0.3077005  -8.0768 7.535e-15 ***
## idFinland               -2.3086889  0.3090731  -7.4697 4.907e-13 ***
## idFrance                -1.2527832  0.2509606  -4.9920 8.863e-07 ***
## idGermany                0.6891767  0.3018106   2.2835 0.0229145 *  
## idGreece                -1.5794853  0.1385489 -11.4002 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.9771465  0.3568947  -8.3418 1.133e-15 ***
## idItaly                 -0.2022154  0.2340532  -0.8640 0.3881096    
## idJapan                  0.9384363  0.4052238   2.3158 0.0210604 *  
## idLuxembourg            -7.2524682  0.8678316  -8.3570 1.015e-15 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.2061009  0.0701086 -17.2033 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.5069577  0.3426172 -10.2358 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.2966117  0.1470487 -15.6180 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.6050660  0.1820317  -3.3240 0.0009675 ***
## idSweden                -3.1462648  0.1894067 -16.6112 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.5080071  0.2444955 -18.4380 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.0166830  0.2401051   0.0695 0.9446400    
## idUnitedStates           2.4978272  0.5984605   4.1738 3.663e-05 ***
## time2000                36.5338480  6.1964374   5.8959 7.805e-09 ***
## time2001                36.5734398  6.1973778   5.9014 7.569e-09 ***
## time2002                36.5889967  6.1957805   5.9055 7.401e-09 ***
## time2003                36.6002935  6.1936276   5.9093 7.242e-09 ***
## time2004                36.5756978  6.1917044   5.9072 7.329e-09 ***
## time2005                36.5682032  6.1914995   5.9062 7.371e-09 ***
## time2006                36.5722903  6.1911384   5.9072 7.329e-09 ***
## time2007                36.5277849  6.1892949   5.9018 7.555e-09 ***
## time2008                36.4641330  6.1882255   5.8925 7.956e-09 ***
## time2009                36.4264842  6.1912090   5.8836 8.362e-09 ***
## time2010                36.4494625  6.1911767   5.8873 8.189e-09 ***
## time2011                36.3753266  6.1895715   5.8769 8.680e-09 ***
## time2012                36.3542474  6.1911149   5.8720 8.919e-09 ***
## time2013                36.2831229  6.1913880   5.8603 9.521e-09 ***
## time2014                36.2010248  6.1917975   5.8466 1.027e-08 ***
## time2015                36.2332465  6.1951347   5.8487 1.015e-08 ***
## time2016                36.2344853  6.1939225   5.8500 1.008e-08 ***
## time2017                36.2265997  6.1935575   5.8491 1.013e-08 ***
## time2018                36.1553628  6.1925958   5.8385 1.074e-08 ***
## time2019                36.0670797  6.1934669   5.8234 1.168e-08 ***
## time2020                35.9638846  6.1948310   5.8055 1.289e-08 ***
## time2021                35.9851265  6.1921870   5.8114 1.248e-08 ***
## iis267                  -0.5416752  0.1596103  -3.3937 0.0007567 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    0.3029273  0.0552001   5.4878 7.150e-08 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -0.6139703  0.0520851 -11.7878 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4955728  0.0552859  -8.9638 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.1075850  0.1215610   9.1114 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -1.0564419  0.0649787 -16.2583 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          0.4938844  0.0506692   9.7472 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016      0.2165729  0.0585222   3.7007 0.0002444 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   100.393  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  13.933  1 0.0001894 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.11014
## R-squared          0.99675
## Log-lik.(n=462)  390.13349
AR = 1

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1"
## 
## Date: Thu Oct 13 21:17:18 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 441 
## Sample: 1 to 441 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                             coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value    
## ar1                     0.753421    0.025656 29.3657 < 2.2e-16 ***
## lgdp                  245.518549   58.754624  4.1787 3.627e-05 ***
## lpop                 -246.698676   58.808064 -4.1950 3.387e-05 ***
## lgdp_sq                -2.843636    0.686323 -4.1433 4.207e-05 ***
## idAustria              -0.635206    0.070782 -8.9742 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium              -0.578311    0.063158 -9.1566 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada               -0.165216    0.029177 -5.6626 2.911e-08 ***
## idDenmark              -0.664734    0.067776 -9.8077 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland              -0.429493    0.068668 -6.2547 1.055e-09 ***
## idFrance               -0.370414    0.044940 -8.2425 2.648e-15 ***
## idGermany               0.109218    0.028356  3.8517 0.0001373 ***
## idGreece               -0.437980    0.048990 -8.9402 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland              -0.692769    0.074416 -9.3094 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                -0.120562    0.027534 -4.3786 1.539e-05 ***
## idJapan                 0.170809    0.037553  4.5485 7.239e-06 ***
## idLuxembourg           -1.281330    0.140525 -9.1182 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands          -0.307144    0.040209 -7.6387 1.739e-13 ***
## idNewZealand           -0.825602    0.088841 -9.2931 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal             -0.564649    0.066618 -8.4760 4.953e-16 ***
## idSpain                -0.238518    0.033251 -7.1732 3.756e-12 ***
## idSweden               -0.757331    0.082584 -9.1704 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland          -1.041851    0.112055 -9.2976 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom        -0.107629    0.026125 -4.1198 4.641e-05 ***
## idUnitedStates          0.576284    0.066828  8.6233 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2001             -327.225002   78.717624 -4.1569 3.974e-05 ***
## time2002             -327.147199   78.691471 -4.1573 3.967e-05 ***
## time2003             -339.513437   81.604649 -4.1605 3.916e-05 ***
## time2004             -349.353463   83.910405 -4.1634 3.868e-05 ***
## time2005             -358.711289   86.114802 -4.1655 3.834e-05 ***
## time2006             -366.490489   87.931147 -4.1679 3.795e-05 ***
## time2007             -373.376307   89.548090 -4.1696 3.769e-05 ***
## time2008             -375.530984   90.040413 -4.1707 3.751e-05 ***
## time2009             -362.216898   86.891281 -4.1686 3.784e-05 ***
## time2010             -373.393213   89.535238 -4.1703 3.757e-05 ***
## time2011             -379.888314   91.035680 -4.1730 3.716e-05 ***
## time2012             -378.817498   90.784457 -4.1727 3.720e-05 ***
## time2013             -377.100636   90.361500 -4.1732 3.711e-05 ***
## time2014             -372.765985   89.322849 -4.1732 3.711e-05 ***
## time2015             -358.180191   85.895449 -4.1700 3.763e-05 ***
## time2016             -353.810132   84.855444 -4.1696 3.769e-05 ***
## time2017             -357.382890   85.692434 -4.1705 3.754e-05 ***
## time2018             -357.799287   85.768621 -4.1717 3.736e-05 ***
## iis90                   0.389817    0.086092  4.5279 7.942e-06 ***
## iis103                 -0.338686    0.086569 -3.9123 0.0001080 ***
## iis110                 -0.327609    0.086790 -3.7747 0.0001853 ***
## iis111                  0.417637    0.086794  4.8118 2.147e-06 ***
## iis254                  0.718071    0.090346  7.9481 2.094e-14 ***
## iis265                 -0.341108    0.087345 -3.9053 0.0001110 ***
## iis268                 -0.402202    0.091060 -4.4169 1.301e-05 ***
## iis325                 -0.344251    0.086391 -3.9848 8.071e-05 ***
## fesisFinland.2005      -0.149512    0.047348 -3.1577 0.0017147 ** 
## fesisJapan.2010         0.129627    0.038629  3.3557 0.0008700 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015   -0.330696    0.047988 -6.8912 2.254e-11 ***
## fesisPortugal.2018     -0.186212    0.046999 -3.9620 8.848e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                     Chi-sq df  p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)    0.25637  1 0.612623    
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.98407  1 0.000919 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.08177
## R-squared          0.99821
## Log-lik.(n=441)  505.42429

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1"
## 
## Date: Thu Oct 13 21:17:32 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 441 
## Sample: 1 to 441 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                             coef   std.error  t-stat   p-value    
## ar1                     0.834028    0.030829 27.0533 < 2.2e-16 ***
## lgdp                  224.923039   63.863666  3.5219 0.0004790 ***
## lpop                 -226.652490   63.929730 -3.5453 0.0004396 ***
## lgdp_sq                -2.591869    0.745833 -3.4751 0.0005678 ***
## idAustria              -0.427439    0.084104 -5.0822 5.793e-07 ***
## idBelgium              -0.396412    0.074828 -5.2977 1.963e-07 ***
## idCanada               -0.119209    0.032694 -3.6462 0.0003021 ***
## idDenmark              -0.464168    0.080632 -5.7566 1.737e-08 ***
## idFinland              -0.265587    0.079343 -3.3473 0.0008951 ***
## idFrance               -0.253587    0.052495 -4.8307 1.957e-06 ***
## idGermany               0.068592    0.031634  2.1683 0.0307362 *  
## idGreece               -0.306056    0.057489 -5.3237 1.718e-07 ***
## idIreland              -0.472823    0.088519 -5.3415 1.568e-07 ***
## idItaly                -0.085963    0.030567 -2.8122 0.0051677 ** 
## idJapan                 0.168326    0.040206  4.1865 3.502e-05 ***
## idLuxembourg           -0.902211    0.163977 -5.5021 6.800e-08 ***
## idNetherlands          -0.208796    0.046627 -4.4780 9.901e-06 ***
## idNewZealand           -0.557982    0.105998 -5.2641 2.329e-07 ***
## idPortugal             -0.427391    0.077402 -5.5217 6.130e-08 ***
## idSpain                -0.170492    0.037897 -4.4989 9.021e-06 ***
## idSweden               -0.510281    0.098423 -5.1846 3.480e-07 ***
## idSwitzerland          -0.698842    0.134050 -5.2133 3.012e-07 ***
## idUnitedKingdom        -0.086398    0.028726 -3.0076 0.0028031 ** 
## idUnitedStates          0.381869    0.079297  4.8157 2.101e-06 ***
## time2001             -299.206807   85.554559 -3.4973 0.0005240 ***
## time2002             -299.146371   85.526332 -3.4977 0.0005232 ***
## time2003             -310.586819   88.694280 -3.5018 0.0005155 ***
## time2004             -319.700948   91.201749 -3.5054 0.0005087 ***
## time2005             -328.362782   93.599000 -3.5082 0.0005036 ***
## time2006             -335.554913   95.574338 -3.5109 0.0004986 ***
## time2007             -341.955714   97.332800 -3.5133 0.0004944 ***
## time2008             -343.964884   97.868366 -3.5146 0.0004920 ***
## time2009             -331.667658   94.444137 -3.5118 0.0004971 ***
## time2010             -342.018512   97.319428 -3.5144 0.0004924 ***
## time2011             -348.033077   98.951255 -3.5172 0.0004873 ***
## time2012             -347.051753   98.678263 -3.5170 0.0004877 ***
## time2013             -345.499146   98.218535 -3.5177 0.0004865 ***
## time2014             -341.486957   97.089250 -3.5172 0.0004873 ***
## time2015             -327.994313   93.362331 -3.5131 0.0004946 ***
## time2016             -323.977100   92.231619 -3.5126 0.0004955 ***
## time2017             -327.297817   93.142013 -3.5140 0.0004931 ***
## time2018             -327.716814   93.225145 -3.5153 0.0004907 ***
## iis110                 -0.350722    0.094851 -3.6976 0.0002487 ***
## iis111                  0.409181    0.094624  4.3243 1.945e-05 ***
## iis253                  0.301731    0.107027  2.8192 0.0050593 ** 
## iis254                  0.844546    0.100530  8.4010 8.287e-16 ***
## iis267                 -0.252280    0.104158 -2.4221 0.0158852 *  
## iis268                 -0.484338    0.101591 -4.7676 2.635e-06 ***
## fesisFinland.2005      -0.138902    0.051707 -2.6863 0.0075328 ** 
## fesisLuxembourg.2015   -0.158578    0.061342 -2.5851 0.0100955 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df p-value  
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   4.0489  1 0.04420 *
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 5.0086  1 0.02522 *
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.08929
## R-squared          0.99784
## Log-lik.(n=441)  464.65999
ETS (all phases)

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Tue Oct 18 01:01:34 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                    -0.4099149  0.4051599  -1.0117 0.3122773    
## lpop                    -0.7351101  0.2468177  -2.9784 0.0030750 ** 
## lgdp_sq                  0.0116148  0.0075950   1.5293 0.1269934    
## EU_ETS_05               -0.0387523  0.0337890  -1.1469 0.2521144    
## EU_ETS_08               -0.0036255  0.0341928  -0.1060 0.9156107    
## EU_ETS_13               -0.1046096  0.0308665  -3.3891 0.0007711 ***
## idAustria               -2.9766121  0.2040914 -14.5847 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.4760449  0.1472166 -16.8191 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.2915931  0.1055281  -2.7632 0.0059891 ** 
## idDenmark               -2.7787380  0.2977628  -9.3321 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -2.7435466  0.3008995  -9.1178 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -0.7525663  0.2555315  -2.9451 0.0034175 ** 
## idGermany                1.2935102  0.3072225   4.2103 3.154e-05 ***
## idGreece                -1.7362676  0.1355759 -12.8066 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.4854145  0.3466810 -10.0537 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  0.2545653  0.2371941   1.0732 0.2838139    
## idJapan                  1.6820964  0.4073936   4.1289 4.441e-05 ***
## idLuxembourg            -8.4097159  0.8464389  -9.9354 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.3467542  0.0656909 -20.5014 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.9812129  0.3439186 -11.5760 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.4655572  0.1442425 -17.0931 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.2580279  0.1831547  -1.4088 0.1596738    
## idSweden                -3.4651874  0.1850206 -18.7287 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.8768925  0.2382262 -20.4717 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.4893965  0.2449273   1.9981 0.0463809 *  
## idUnitedStates           3.6667093  0.5996288   6.1150 2.303e-09 ***
## time2000                27.1304925  5.8245611   4.6579 4.358e-06 ***
## time2001                27.1714338  5.8254289   4.6643 4.232e-06 ***
## time2002                27.1854433  5.8241484   4.6677 4.166e-06 ***
## time2003                27.1904435  5.8225575   4.6698 4.125e-06 ***
## time2004                27.1734233  5.8209491   4.6682 4.156e-06 ***
## time2005                27.1947174  5.8219052   4.6711 4.101e-06 ***
## time2006                27.1998611  5.8216826   4.6722 4.081e-06 ***
## time2007                27.1542972  5.8202318   4.6655 4.208e-06 ***
## time2008                27.0948856  5.8171602   4.6578 4.361e-06 ***
## time2009                27.0619180  5.8197269   4.6500 4.519e-06 ***
## time2010                27.0872729  5.8197396   4.6544 4.430e-06 ***
## time2011                26.9945006  5.8184657   4.6395 4.744e-06 ***
## time2012                27.0006066  5.8196639   4.6395 4.742e-06 ***
## time2013                27.0180254  5.8177674   4.6441 4.645e-06 ***
## time2014                26.9246474  5.8182033   4.6277 5.008e-06 ***
## time2015                26.9849839  5.8202971   4.6364 4.812e-06 ***
## time2016                26.9592102  5.8195092   4.6326 4.897e-06 ***
## time2017                26.9527952  5.8192698   4.6316 4.917e-06 ***
## time2018                26.8830122  5.8185066   4.6203 5.180e-06 ***
## time2019                26.7522532  5.8184108   4.5979 5.738e-06 ***
## time2020                26.6507843  5.8196312   4.5795 6.239e-06 ***
## time2021                26.6713899  5.8174162   4.5847 6.091e-06 ***
## iis267                  -0.5437700  0.1360461  -3.9970 7.643e-05 ***
## fesisAustria.2019        0.2725529  0.0604848   4.5061 8.685e-06 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2019    0.3807873  0.0620610   6.1357 2.045e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -0.2072212  0.0570941  -3.6295 0.0003209 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -0.5259205  0.0473300 -11.1118 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4282567  0.0480768  -8.9078 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.0851865  0.1046267  10.3720 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015    -0.5732688  0.1027483  -5.5794 4.463e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -0.4601213  0.1049667  -4.3835 1.495e-05 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.2769480  0.0434209   6.3782 4.966e-10 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         0.2637919  0.0483657   5.4541 8.650e-08 ***
## fesisJapan.2011          0.4089640  0.0504707   8.1030 6.616e-15 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016      0.2102261  0.0516320   4.0716 5.632e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2013    -0.2775790  0.0550597  -5.0414 7.024e-07 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2019     0.2977465  0.0697653   4.2678 2.468e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   67.857  1  2.22e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 14.172  1 0.0001669 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09388
## R-squared          0.99769
## Log-lik.(n=462)  468.93945

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Tue Oct 18 01:01:35 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                               coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                     0.3697948  0.4808585   0.7690 0.4423224    
## lpop                    -0.8740161  0.2625139  -3.3294 0.0009498 ***
## lgdp_sq                 -0.0043634  0.0089583  -0.4871 0.6264621    
## EU_ETS_05               -0.0484393  0.0400425  -1.2097 0.2270990    
## EU_ETS_08               -0.0795505  0.0405843  -1.9601 0.0506640 .  
## EU_ETS_13               -0.1858428  0.0323281  -5.7486 1.770e-08 ***
## idAustria               -3.1292982  0.2146138 -14.5811 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.6161774  0.1564560 -16.7215 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -0.2515411  0.1052036  -2.3910 0.0172575 *  
## idDenmark               -3.1857836  0.3140749 -10.1434 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -3.0252642  0.3146051  -9.6161 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -0.4694802  0.2593530  -1.8102 0.0710043 .  
## idGermany                1.6507645  0.3117294   5.2955 1.949e-07 ***
## idGreece                -1.9202983  0.1409797 -13.6211 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.7876432  0.3635244 -10.4192 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  0.4949938  0.2418034   2.0471 0.0412923 *  
## idJapan                  2.2797701  0.4050104   5.6289 3.388e-08 ***
## idLuxembourg            -9.0376691  0.8847773 -10.2146 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.3765398  0.0742286 -18.5446 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -4.3059328  0.3554087 -12.1154 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.6608563  0.1495880 -17.7879 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -0.1071270  0.1884037  -0.5686 0.5699397    
## idSweden                -3.6181074  0.1964285 -18.4195 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -5.0797566  0.2525695 -20.1123 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          0.7819613  0.2477710   3.1560 0.0017188 ** 
## idUnitedStates           4.3791012  0.6106410   7.1713 3.542e-12 ***
## time2000                20.0574340  6.8324747   2.9356 0.0035182 ** 
## time2001                20.0987461  6.8333713   2.9413 0.0034559 ** 
## time2002                20.1198768  6.8319094   2.9450 0.0034155 ** 
## time2003                20.1393931  6.8303638   2.9485 0.0033776 ** 
## time2004                20.1248635  6.8287672   2.9471 0.0033930 ** 
## time2005                20.1583577  6.8293621   2.9517 0.0033434 ** 
## time2006                20.1696217  6.8290472   2.9535 0.0033246 ** 
## time2007                20.1360644  6.8274463   2.9493 0.0033693 ** 
## time2008                20.1396811  6.8220446   2.9521 0.0033389 ** 
## time2009                20.0996233  6.8246999   2.9451 0.0034139 ** 
## time2010                20.1433705  6.8235806   2.9520 0.0033402 ** 
## time2011                20.0789599  6.8220502   2.9432 0.0034343 ** 
## time2012                20.0826936  6.8232234   2.9433 0.0034339 ** 
## time2013                20.1477239  6.8234823   2.9527 0.0033330 ** 
## time2014                20.0572249  6.8238933   2.9393 0.0034778 ** 
## time2015                20.1310944  6.8255937   2.9494 0.0033686 ** 
## time2016                20.0969694  6.8257765   2.9443 0.0034232 ** 
## time2017                20.0961785  6.8254248   2.9443 0.0034228 ** 
## time2018                20.0336586  6.8244905   2.9356 0.0035188 ** 
## time2019                19.9482536  6.8252223   2.9227 0.0036639 ** 
## time2020                19.8452841  6.8264978   2.9071 0.0038480 ** 
## time2021                19.8773615  6.8240361   2.9128 0.0037793 ** 
## iis267                  -0.5449073  0.1618259  -3.3672 0.0008317 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -0.6017044  0.0532742 -11.2945 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -0.4425334  0.0567001  -7.8048 5.109e-14 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.0602057  0.1244142   8.5216 3.121e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015    -0.9729980  0.0652117 -14.9206 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    0.2657768  0.0515780   5.1529 4.011e-07 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         0.2528055  0.0567180   4.4572 1.076e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2010    -0.3083261  0.0579984  -5.3161 1.753e-07 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   99.987  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 27.312  1 1.731e-07 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.11167
## R-squared          0.99668
## Log-lik.(n=462)  385.26462

w/ Temp Controls

2000 - 2021: population-weighted CDD and HDD from IEA

Note: I have excluded the results with temp controls for 1990-2021 that you saw on Tuesday as I noted an issue with the non-EU15 countries that I’m currently working through.

no ETS

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + HDD16dailybypop + CDD18dailybypop"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 17 23:49:39 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                    -1.4605e+00  3.8380e-01  -3.8054 0.0001635 ***
## lpop                    -8.6136e-01  2.3737e-01  -3.6288 0.0003213 ***
## lgdp_sq                  3.3236e-02  7.1923e-03   4.6211 5.146e-06 ***
## HDD16dailybypop          2.1955e-04  3.7752e-05   5.8156 1.232e-08 ***
## CDD18dailybypop          1.2905e-04  1.1243e-04   1.1478 0.2517228    
## idAustria               -3.4493e+00  2.2249e-01 -15.5033 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.7890e+00  1.6370e-01 -17.0376 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -9.0262e-01  1.5460e-01  -5.8384 1.085e-08 ***
## idDenmark               -3.3097e+00  3.0180e-01 -10.9666 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -3.5085e+00  3.2589e-01 -10.7658 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -1.0415e+00  2.3833e-01  -4.3701 1.582e-05 ***
## idGermany                8.4792e-01  2.8806e-01   2.9435 0.0034329 ** 
## idGreece                -1.8428e+00  1.3268e-01 -13.8891 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.8556e+00  3.4207e-01 -11.2712 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  4.2824e-02  2.1501e-01   0.1992 0.8422263    
## idJapan                  1.1746e+00  3.7085e-01   3.1673 0.0016556 ** 
## idLuxembourg            -9.1307e+00  8.0725e-01 -11.3108 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.6661e+00  1.0547e-01 -15.7966 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -4.0857e+00  3.1882e-01 -12.8148 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.4582e+00  1.3730e-01 -17.9032 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -3.5923e-01  1.6709e-01  -2.1500 0.0321530 *  
## idSweden                -4.0626e+00  2.1882e-01 -18.5656 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -5.3833e+00  2.5241e-01 -21.3273 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          1.4382e-01  2.3642e-01   0.6083 0.5433148    
## idUnitedStates           3.1765e+00  5.4619e-01   5.8158 1.230e-08 ***
## time2000                 4.1697e+01  5.6441e+00   7.3877 8.676e-13 ***
## time2001                 4.1708e+01  5.6453e+00   7.3882 8.651e-13 ***
## time2002                 4.1730e+01  5.6435e+00   7.3944 8.303e-13 ***
## time2003                 4.1677e+01  5.6424e+00   7.3865 8.747e-13 ***
## time2004                 4.1648e+01  5.6394e+00   7.3851 8.828e-13 ***
## time2005                 4.1635e+01  5.6396e+00   7.3827 8.966e-13 ***
## time2006                 4.1650e+01  5.6397e+00   7.3850 8.831e-13 ***
## time2007                 4.1616e+01  5.6372e+00   7.3824 8.987e-13 ***
## time2008                 4.1525e+01  5.6359e+00   7.3679 9.894e-13 ***
## time2009                 4.1491e+01  5.6390e+00   7.3579 1.057e-12 ***
## time2010                 4.1464e+01  5.6390e+00   7.3530 1.092e-12 ***
## time2011                 4.1470e+01  5.6375e+00   7.3561 1.069e-12 ***
## time2012                 4.1441e+01  5.6390e+00   7.3491 1.120e-12 ***
## time2013                 4.1339e+01  5.6392e+00   7.3307 1.264e-12 ***
## time2014                 4.1318e+01  5.6394e+00   7.3265 1.299e-12 ***
## time2015                 4.1334e+01  5.6432e+00   7.3246 1.316e-12 ***
## time2016                 4.1319e+01  5.6419e+00   7.3236 1.325e-12 ***
## time2017                 4.1310e+01  5.6415e+00   7.3225 1.335e-12 ***
## time2018                 4.1212e+01  5.6413e+00   7.3054 1.493e-12 ***
## time2019                 4.1136e+01  5.6416e+00   7.2915 1.636e-12 ***
## time2020                 4.1068e+01  5.6428e+00   7.2780 1.787e-12 ***
## time2021                 4.1028e+01  5.6396e+00   7.2750 1.823e-12 ***
## iis267                  -5.1631e-01  1.4314e-01  -3.6069 0.0003488 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018    4.0469e-01  5.7048e-02   7.0939 5.901e-12 ***
## fesisDenmark.2010       -2.5470e-01  5.5964e-02  -4.5512 7.071e-06 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -3.9921e-01  5.9915e-02  -6.6630 8.832e-11 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.4955e-01  5.0000e-02  -8.9910 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.1217e+00  1.0909e-01  10.2821 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -9.7864e-01  5.8798e-02 -16.6440 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    2.6752e-01  4.5303e-02   5.9050 7.498e-09 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         2.7262e-01  5.0109e-02   5.4405 9.237e-08 ***
## fesisJapan.2002          2.6466e-01  8.1325e-02   3.2543 0.0012326 ** 
## fesisJapan.2013          4.6795e-01  4.7587e-02   9.8334 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016      2.4192e-01  5.2756e-02   4.5856 6.051e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   80.482  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.558  1  0.001157 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09871
## R-squared          0.99743
## Log-lik.(n=462)  443.75444

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + HDD16dailybypop + CDD18dailybypop"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 17 23:49:40 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                    -1.5326e+00  4.0448e-01  -3.7890 0.0001742 ***
## lpop                    -7.7290e-01  2.4788e-01  -3.1180 0.0019508 ** 
## lgdp_sq                  3.3480e-02  7.5851e-03   4.4139 1.304e-05 ***
## HDD16dailybypop          1.8952e-04  3.9564e-05   4.7903 2.341e-06 ***
## CDD18dailybypop          9.1250e-05  1.1841e-04   0.7706 0.4413691    
## idAustria               -3.3732e+00  2.3273e-01 -14.4943 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.7507e+00  1.7149e-01 -16.0398 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -8.4632e-01  1.6326e-01  -5.1837 3.441e-07 ***
## idDenmark               -3.2455e+00  3.1683e-01 -10.2436 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -3.3890e+00  3.4081e-01  -9.9439 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -1.0652e+00  2.5067e-01  -4.2494 2.663e-05 ***
## idGermany                8.3703e-01  3.0324e-01   2.7603 0.0060373 ** 
## idGreece                -1.8475e+00  1.3961e-01 -13.2335 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.7754e+00  3.5835e-01 -10.5354 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  1.4869e-02  2.2589e-01   0.0658 0.9475518    
## idJapan                  1.3819e+00  3.8798e-01   3.5617 0.0004123 ***
## idLuxembourg            -8.9321e+00  8.4594e-01 -10.5588 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.5361e+00  1.0984e-01 -13.9852 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -4.0663e+00  3.3488e-01 -12.1424 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.4905e+00  1.4438e-01 -17.2499 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -3.9887e-01  1.7519e-01  -2.2768 0.0233198 *  
## idSweden                -3.9689e+00  2.2874e-01 -17.3511 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -5.2755e+00  2.6361e-01 -20.0125 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          1.3577e-01  2.4891e-01   0.5455 0.5857281    
## idUnitedStates           3.1439e+00  5.7418e-01   5.4755 7.671e-08 ***
## time2000                 4.2002e+01  5.9554e+00   7.0527 7.631e-12 ***
## time2001                 4.2017e+01  5.9566e+00   7.0539 7.575e-12 ***
## time2002                 4.2052e+01  5.9548e+00   7.0618 7.200e-12 ***
## time2003                 4.2017e+01  5.9537e+00   7.0573 7.413e-12 ***
## time2004                 4.1992e+01  5.9507e+00   7.0567 7.438e-12 ***
## time2005                 4.1983e+01  5.9508e+00   7.0550 7.521e-12 ***
## time2006                 4.1999e+01  5.9510e+00   7.0574 7.407e-12 ***
## time2007                 4.1968e+01  5.9484e+00   7.0553 7.507e-12 ***
## time2008                 4.1883e+01  5.9471e+00   7.0426 8.141e-12 ***
## time2009                 4.1846e+01  5.9503e+00   7.0326 8.682e-12 ***
## time2010                 4.1816e+01  5.9504e+00   7.0275 8.969e-12 ***
## time2011                 4.1815e+01  5.9488e+00   7.0290 8.880e-12 ***
## time2012                 4.1802e+01  5.9503e+00   7.0252 9.099e-12 ***
## time2013                 4.1701e+01  5.9505e+00   7.0081 1.015e-11 ***
## time2014                 4.1683e+01  5.9507e+00   7.0046 1.038e-11 ***
## time2015                 4.1695e+01  5.9547e+00   7.0021 1.055e-11 ***
## time2016                 4.1685e+01  5.9533e+00   7.0020 1.055e-11 ***
## time2017                 4.1678e+01  5.9529e+00   7.0013 1.060e-11 ***
## time2018                 4.1585e+01  5.9527e+00   6.9860 1.168e-11 ***
## time2019                 4.1506e+01  5.9530e+00   6.9723 1.274e-11 ***
## time2020                 4.1433e+01  5.9543e+00   6.9585 1.391e-11 ***
## time2021                 4.1405e+01  5.9509e+00   6.9577 1.398e-11 ***
## iis267                  -5.2040e-01  1.5113e-01  -3.4433 0.0006346 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018    3.9003e-01  6.0187e-02   6.4803 2.662e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012       -2.7864e-01  6.9192e-02  -4.0271 6.743e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -3.6653e-01  7.4062e-02  -4.9490 1.096e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.7347e-01  5.2655e-02  -8.9920 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.1165e+00  1.1513e-01   9.6982 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -9.9457e-01  6.2030e-02 -16.0335 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         2.4964e-01  5.2800e-02   4.7280 3.135e-06 ***
## fesisJapan.2013          4.8140e-01  4.9001e-02   9.8242 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016      2.3316e-01  5.5671e-02   4.1881 3.455e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   107.822  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  13.117  1 0.0002926 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10422
## R-squared          0.99712
## Log-lik.(n=462)  417.65577

ETS (all phases)

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + HDD16dailybypop + CDD18dailybypop + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Tue Oct 18 00:42:15 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                    -5.9666e-01  4.1943e-01  -1.4225 0.1556525    
## lpop                    -1.1626e+00  2.4548e-01  -4.7362 3.034e-06 ***
## lgdp_sq                  1.6203e-02  7.8687e-03   2.0591 0.0401307 *  
## HDD16dailybypop          1.8989e-04  3.6393e-05   5.2177 2.921e-07 ***
## CDD18dailybypop          8.9956e-05  1.0861e-04   0.8282 0.4080340    
## EU_ETS_05               -4.3563e-02  3.4244e-02  -1.2721 0.2040758    
## EU_ETS_08               -2.8657e-02  3.4467e-02  -0.8314 0.4062301    
## EU_ETS_13               -7.5739e-02  3.2580e-02  -2.3247 0.0205906 *  
## idAustria               -3.7101e+00  2.2942e-01 -16.1717 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.9514e+00  1.6806e-01 -17.5617 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -6.7314e-01  1.5435e-01  -4.3611 1.650e-05 ***
## idDenmark               -3.6151e+00  3.1524e-01 -11.4679 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -3.8535e+00  3.3710e-01 -11.4315 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -5.3871e-01  2.5887e-01  -2.0810 0.0380756 *  
## idGermany                1.4717e+00  3.1300e-01   4.7018 3.560e-06 ***
## idGreece                -2.0329e+00  1.3978e-01 -14.5435 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -4.3109e+00  3.5871e-01 -12.0178 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  4.9474e-01  2.3548e-01   2.1010 0.0362672 *  
## idJapan                  2.1525e+00  4.0422e-01   5.3250 1.692e-07 ***
## idLuxembourg            -1.0202e+01  8.4906e-01 -12.0153 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.6761e+00  1.0312e-01 -16.2543 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -4.6106e+00  3.4791e-01 -13.2521 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.6915e+00  1.4773e-01 -18.2191 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -3.7258e-02  1.8142e-01  -0.2054 0.8373869    
## idSweden                -4.2402e+00  2.2250e-01 -19.0569 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -5.6838e+00  2.6296e-01 -21.6147 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          6.3837e-01  2.5470e-01   2.5064 0.0125949 *  
## idUnitedStates           4.3487e+00  5.9698e-01   7.2845 1.746e-12 ***
## time2000                 3.5848e+01  5.8999e+00   6.0761 2.883e-09 ***
## time2001                 3.5865e+01  5.9009e+00   6.0778 2.854e-09 ***
## time2002                 3.5901e+01  5.8994e+00   6.0856 2.730e-09 ***
## time2003                 3.5866e+01  5.8987e+00   6.0803 2.814e-09 ***
## time2004                 3.5853e+01  5.8960e+00   6.0809 2.805e-09 ***
## time2005                 3.5877e+01  5.8974e+00   6.0835 2.763e-09 ***
## time2006                 3.5896e+01  5.8977e+00   6.0864 2.718e-09 ***
## time2007                 3.5867e+01  5.8955e+00   6.0838 2.759e-09 ***
## time2008                 3.5806e+01  5.8919e+00   6.0772 2.865e-09 ***
## time2009                 3.5772e+01  5.8947e+00   6.0684 3.012e-09 ***
## time2010                 3.5745e+01  5.8947e+00   6.0639 3.090e-09 ***
## time2011                 3.5746e+01  5.8935e+00   6.0654 3.064e-09 ***
## time2012                 3.5704e+01  5.8946e+00   6.0571 3.212e-09 ***
## time2013                 3.5694e+01  5.8915e+00   6.0585 3.187e-09 ***
## time2014                 3.5664e+01  5.8919e+00   6.0530 3.288e-09 ***
## time2015                 3.5685e+01  5.8953e+00   6.0531 3.286e-09 ***
## time2016                 3.5669e+01  5.8938e+00   6.0519 3.308e-09 ***
## time2017                 3.5665e+01  5.8935e+00   6.0515 3.315e-09 ***
## time2018                 3.5576e+01  5.8932e+00   6.0368 3.604e-09 ***
## time2019                 3.5471e+01  5.8929e+00   6.0193 3.981e-09 ***
## time2020                 3.5399e+01  5.8941e+00   6.0058 4.295e-09 ***
## time2021                 3.5373e+01  5.8911e+00   6.0045 4.327e-09 ***
## iis267                  -5.2262e-01  1.3764e-01  -3.7969 0.0001693 ***
## fesisAustria.2019        2.8220e-01  6.1119e-02   4.6172 5.257e-06 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018    3.7460e-01  5.7026e-02   6.5689 1.589e-10 ***
## fesisDenmark.2004       -2.0883e-01  5.7731e-02  -3.6173 0.0003360 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -5.0013e-01  4.7975e-02 -10.4247 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.1620e-01  4.8663e-02  -8.5527 2.623e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.0819e+00  1.0585e-01  10.2206 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -9.2538e-01  5.9412e-02 -15.5755 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    2.8662e-01  4.3892e-02   6.5301 2.009e-10 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         3.0561e-01  4.9024e-02   6.2339 1.161e-09 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          3.9354e-01  5.2675e-02   7.4710 5.093e-13 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016      2.3514e-01  5.2337e-02   4.4928 9.225e-06 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2013    -2.4473e-01  5.6297e-02  -4.3470 1.754e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2019     3.1938e-01  7.0461e-02   4.5327 7.713e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   65.7734  1 5.551e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  6.1566  1   0.01309 *  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09491
## R-squared          0.99765
## Log-lik.(n=462)  464.37284

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lgdp + lpop + lgdp_sq + HDD16dailybypop + CDD18dailybypop + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Tue Oct 18 00:42:15 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lgdp                     4.1256e-01  4.6018e-01   0.8965 0.3705155    
## lpop                    -1.0429e+00  2.4873e-01  -4.1928 3.392e-05 ***
## lgdp_sq                 -4.7246e-03  8.5852e-03  -0.5503 0.5824032    
## HDD16dailybypop          1.9536e-04  4.0286e-05   4.8492 1.775e-06 ***
## CDD18dailybypop          1.6689e-04  1.2055e-04   1.3845 0.1669739    
## EU_ETS_05               -4.7752e-02  3.7824e-02  -1.2625 0.2075144    
## EU_ETS_08               -9.7002e-02  3.8752e-02  -2.5032 0.0127044 *  
## EU_ETS_13               -1.3483e-01  3.0905e-02  -4.3628 1.634e-05 ***
## idAustria               -3.6487e+00  2.3585e-01 -15.4709 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.9298e+00  1.7476e-01 -16.7646 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -7.1510e-01  1.5945e-01  -4.4848 9.535e-06 ***
## idDenmark               -3.6419e+00  3.2171e-01 -11.3204 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -3.8171e+00  3.4507e-01 -11.0620 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -4.8755e-01  2.5052e-01  -1.9461 0.0523348 .  
## idGermany                1.5554e+00  3.0313e-01   5.1311 4.492e-07 ***
## idGreece                -2.1309e+00  1.3875e-01 -15.3575 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -4.2313e+00  3.6296e-01 -11.6577 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  4.8985e-01  2.2818e-01   2.1468 0.0324046 *  
## idJapan                  2.3345e+00  3.8223e-01   6.1076 2.387e-09 ***
## idLuxembourg            -9.8918e+00  8.5215e-01 -11.6080 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.6278e+00  1.1315e-01 -14.3852 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -4.5326e+00  3.4706e-01 -13.0598 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.7484e+00  1.4729e-01 -18.6599 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -8.6415e-02  1.7746e-01  -0.4869 0.6265598    
## idSweden                -4.1914e+00  2.3265e-01 -18.0158 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -5.6534e+00  2.7167e-01 -20.8103 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          7.2651e-01  2.4721e-01   2.9388 0.0034847 ** 
## idUnitedStates           4.5100e+00  5.7596e-01   7.8304 4.368e-14 ***
## time2000                 2.1798e+01  6.5759e+00   3.3148 0.0010002 ** 
## time2001                 2.1811e+01  6.5771e+00   3.3162 0.0009955 ***
## time2002                 2.1857e+01  6.5755e+00   3.3241 0.0009686 ***
## time2003                 2.1835e+01  6.5752e+00   3.3207 0.0009798 ***
## time2004                 2.1833e+01  6.5724e+00   3.3219 0.0009760 ***
## time2005                 2.1864e+01  6.5737e+00   3.3259 0.0009623 ***
## time2006                 2.1887e+01  6.5740e+00   3.3293 0.0009511 ***
## time2007                 2.1878e+01  6.5716e+00   3.3291 0.0009516 ***
## time2008                 2.1876e+01  6.5657e+00   3.3319 0.0009424 ***
## time2009                 2.1840e+01  6.5676e+00   3.3255 0.0009638 ***
## time2010                 2.1813e+01  6.5677e+00   3.3213 0.0009779 ***
## time2011                 2.1830e+01  6.5662e+00   3.3246 0.0009668 ***
## time2012                 2.1812e+01  6.5674e+00   3.3212 0.0009783 ***
## time2013                 2.1834e+01  6.5678e+00   3.3244 0.0009674 ***
## time2014                 2.1810e+01  6.5680e+00   3.3207 0.0009800 ***
## time2015                 2.1851e+01  6.5704e+00   3.3257 0.0009631 ***
## time2016                 2.1805e+01  6.5706e+00   3.3186 0.0009870 ***
## time2017                 2.1807e+01  6.5702e+00   3.3191 0.0009855 ***
## time2018                 2.1727e+01  6.5701e+00   3.3070 0.0010279 ** 
## time2019                 2.1651e+01  6.5702e+00   3.2954 0.0010702 ** 
## time2020                 2.1577e+01  6.5714e+00   3.2835 0.0011150 ** 
## time2021                 2.1568e+01  6.5682e+00   3.2837 0.0011143 ** 
## iis267                  -5.1969e-01  1.5260e-01  -3.4056 0.0007267 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018    2.8387e-01  6.1626e-02   4.6064 5.508e-06 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012       -2.7326e-01  6.9906e-02  -3.9090 0.0001087 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -3.6554e-01  7.4830e-02  -4.8849 1.497e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.3920e-01  5.3534e-02  -8.2041 3.173e-15 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.0616e+00  1.1740e-01   9.0424 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015    -9.5444e-01  6.1677e-02 -15.4747 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    2.6633e-01  4.8626e-02   5.4772 7.633e-08 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         2.8187e-01  5.3699e-02   5.2491 2.481e-07 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2009    -2.8285e-01  5.5719e-02  -5.0764 5.894e-07 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   96.414  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 43.682  1 3.864e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10522
## R-squared          0.99708
## Log-lik.(n=462)  414.71611

Temp & Pop Only

2000 - 2021: population-weighted CDD and HDD from IEA

Note: I have excluded the results with temp controls for 1990-2021 that you saw on Monday as I noted an issue with the non-EU15 countries that I’m currently working through.

no ETS

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lpop + HDD16dailybypop + CDD18dailybypop"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 17 23:49:37 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lpop                    -4.3313e-01  1.8459e-01  -2.3464 0.0194429 *  
## HDD16dailybypop          1.6864e-04  3.8436e-05   4.3874 1.469e-05 ***
## CDD18dailybypop          1.5650e-04  1.1348e-04   1.3791 0.1686201    
## idAustria               -3.2214e+00  2.0726e-01 -15.5427 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.6504e+00  1.5603e-01 -16.9868 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -7.5677e-01  1.5412e-01  -4.9104 1.327e-06 ***
## idDenmark               -2.9959e+00  2.7370e-01 -10.9461 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -3.1582e+00  3.0278e-01 -10.4306 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -1.0439e+00  2.1443e-01  -4.8680 1.626e-06 ***
## idGermany                9.1436e-01  2.6169e-01   3.4941 0.0005288 ***
## idGreece                -1.9048e+00  1.3091e-01 -14.5507 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.5026e+00  3.0918e-01 -11.3284 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                 -5.0153e-02  1.9033e-01  -0.2635 0.7922936    
## idJapan                  1.4254e+00  3.3726e-01   4.2265 2.944e-05 ***
## idLuxembourg            -8.0875e+00  7.2329e-01 -11.1815 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.5124e+00  1.0350e-01 -14.6124 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.9297e+00  3.0265e-01 -12.9845 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.5956e+00  1.4303e-01 -18.1478 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -5.3999e-01  1.4126e-01  -3.8228 0.0001530 ***
## idSweden                -3.7738e+00  2.0322e-01 -18.5700 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -5.0075e+00  2.2211e-01 -22.5449 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          2.1992e-01  2.1721e-01   1.0125 0.3119233    
## idUnitedStates           3.4113e+00  4.9303e-01   6.9190 1.814e-11 ***
## time2000                 1.9278e+01  3.1037e+00   6.2113 1.318e-09 ***
## time2001                 1.9291e+01  3.1046e+00   6.2138 1.300e-09 ***
## time2002                 1.9347e+01  3.1055e+00   6.2298 1.184e-09 ***
## time2003                 1.9355e+01  3.1068e+00   6.2300 1.183e-09 ***
## time2004                 1.9371e+01  3.1080e+00   6.2325 1.165e-09 ***
## time2005                 1.9371e+01  3.1094e+00   6.2300 1.183e-09 ***
## time2006                 1.9398e+01  3.1110e+00   6.2352 1.148e-09 ***
## time2007                 1.9402e+01  3.1124e+00   6.2337 1.158e-09 ***
## time2008                 1.9341e+01  3.1138e+00   6.2116 1.316e-09 ***
## time2009                 1.9275e+01  3.1151e+00   6.1877 1.512e-09 ***
## time2010                 1.9256e+01  3.1159e+00   6.1799 1.582e-09 ***
## time2011                 1.9272e+01  3.1174e+00   6.1818 1.564e-09 ***
## time2012                 1.9228e+01  3.1191e+00   6.1647 1.727e-09 ***
## time2013                 1.9157e+01  3.1201e+00   6.1398 1.993e-09 ***
## time2014                 1.9124e+01  3.1220e+00   6.1258 2.160e-09 ***
## time2015                 1.9100e+01  3.1230e+00   6.1158 2.288e-09 ***
## time2016                 1.9095e+01  3.1225e+00   6.1153 2.294e-09 ***
## time2017                 1.9100e+01  3.1236e+00   6.1148 2.301e-09 ***
## time2018                 1.9041e+01  3.1248e+00   6.0933 2.602e-09 ***
## time2019                 1.8955e+01  3.1258e+00   6.0640 3.076e-09 ***
## time2020                 1.8867e+01  3.1269e+00   6.0336 3.657e-09 ***
## time2021                 1.8880e+01  3.1269e+00   6.0378 3.571e-09 ***
## iis267                  -5.2006e-01  1.4681e-01  -3.5425 0.0004431 ***
## iis283                  -1.1176e+00  1.0981e-01 -10.1777 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis284                  -1.1202e+00  1.1034e-01 -10.1520 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis285                  -1.1263e+00  1.1104e-01 -10.1426 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis430                  -1.0440e+00  1.1161e-01  -9.3532 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis431                  -9.5236e-01  1.1232e-01  -8.4791 4.430e-16 ***
## iis432                  -9.5715e-01  1.1303e-01  -8.4683 4.790e-16 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    3.5037e-01  5.1031e-02   6.8658 2.535e-11 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012       -2.8598e-01  6.7145e-02  -4.2591 2.561e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -3.7306e-01  7.2036e-02  -5.1787 3.547e-07 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.9289e-01  5.0422e-02  -9.7754 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisGreece.2015        -2.3812e-01  5.0819e-02  -4.6857 3.831e-06 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.0128e+00  1.0812e-01   9.3673 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    2.4475e-01  4.6640e-02   5.2476 2.505e-07 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         2.3116e-01  5.0896e-02   4.5419 7.391e-06 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          4.3224e-01  4.7044e-02   9.1879 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2015      2.7368e-01  5.1689e-02   5.2948 1.970e-07 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   89.0570  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  9.8094  1  0.001736 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10123
## R-squared          0.99731
## Log-lik.(n=462)  433.58193

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lpop + HDD16dailybypop + CDD18dailybypop"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Mon Oct 17 23:49:38 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lpop                    -6.8033e-02  1.8758e-01  -0.3627 0.7170301    
## HDD16dailybypop          1.4935e-04  4.1677e-05   3.5836 0.0003798 ***
## CDD18dailybypop          1.2234e-04  1.2330e-04   0.9922 0.3216781    
## idAustria               -2.8559e+00  2.1274e-01 -13.4242 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.3960e+00  1.6092e-01 -14.8887 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -8.8582e-01  1.6598e-01  -5.3370 1.569e-07 ***
## idDenmark               -2.4854e+00  2.7965e-01  -8.8876 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -2.6088e+00  3.1025e-01  -8.4087 6.974e-16 ***
## idFrance                -1.4410e+00  2.2100e-01  -6.5205 2.070e-10 ***
## idGermany                4.4027e-01  2.7015e-01   1.6297 0.1039349    
## idGreece                -1.7207e+00  1.3785e-01 -12.4821 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -2.9247e+00  3.1493e-01  -9.2867 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                 -4.0887e-01  1.9522e-01  -2.0944 0.0368366 *  
## idJapan                  7.8759e-01  3.4416e-01   2.2884 0.0226220 *  
## idLuxembourg            -6.9323e+00  7.3156e-01  -9.4761 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.3245e+00  1.0964e-01 -12.0803 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -3.3643e+00  3.0815e-01 -10.9178 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.3416e+00  1.4616e-01 -16.0212 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -8.0624e-01  1.4501e-01  -5.5599 4.880e-08 ***
## idSweden                -3.3841e+00  2.0818e-01 -16.2554 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -4.6099e+00  2.2802e-01 -20.2175 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom         -1.6186e-01  2.2504e-01  -0.7192 0.4724025    
## idUnitedStates           2.4641e+00  5.0281e-01   4.9006 1.379e-06 ***
## time2000                 1.3157e+01  3.1546e+00   4.1708 3.709e-05 ***
## time2001                 1.3196e+01  3.1557e+00   4.1818 3.541e-05 ***
## time2002                 1.3235e+01  3.1564e+00   4.1930 3.378e-05 ***
## time2003                 1.3246e+01  3.1579e+00   4.1945 3.355e-05 ***
## time2004                 1.3256e+01  3.1590e+00   4.1962 3.331e-05 ***
## time2005                 1.3255e+01  3.1605e+00   4.1940 3.363e-05 ***
## time2006                 1.3278e+01  3.1620e+00   4.1990 3.292e-05 ***
## time2007                 1.3276e+01  3.1634e+00   4.1966 3.326e-05 ***
## time2008                 1.3214e+01  3.1648e+00   4.1751 3.641e-05 ***
## time2009                 1.3146e+01  3.1662e+00   4.1521 4.012e-05 ***
## time2010                 1.3131e+01  3.1673e+00   4.1457 4.120e-05 ***
## time2011                 1.3136e+01  3.1685e+00   4.1458 4.119e-05 ***
## time2012                 1.3094e+01  3.1703e+00   4.1301 4.398e-05 ***
## time2013                 1.3021e+01  3.1714e+00   4.1057 4.869e-05 ***
## time2014                 1.2991e+01  3.1728e+00   4.0944 5.103e-05 ***
## time2015                 1.2958e+01  3.1731e+00   4.0838 5.331e-05 ***
## time2016                 1.2966e+01  3.1724e+00   4.0870 5.262e-05 ***
## time2017                 1.2968e+01  3.1738e+00   4.0861 5.282e-05 ***
## time2018                 1.2907e+01  3.1751e+00   4.0651 5.760e-05 ***
## time2019                 1.2822e+01  3.1762e+00   4.0368 6.470e-05 ***
## time2020                 1.2733e+01  3.1773e+00   4.0074 7.296e-05 ***
## time2021                 1.2748e+01  3.1776e+00   4.0118 7.165e-05 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2016    3.1723e-01  5.5449e-02   5.7211 2.047e-08 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012       -2.8294e-01  7.3328e-02  -3.8586 0.0001325 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -3.8749e-01  7.8527e-02  -4.9345 1.172e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -5.1294e-01  5.4793e-02  -9.3615 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.2468e+00  8.6757e-02  14.3717 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -1.1233e+00  6.2747e-02 -17.9025 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisJapan.2012          4.4956e-01  5.0723e-02   8.8630 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisAustralia.2015      2.2576e-01  5.6063e-02   4.0269 6.738e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   107.286  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  16.385  1 5.168e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.11060
## R-squared          0.99672
## Log-lik.(n=462)  388.18443

ETS (all phases)

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lpop + HDD16dailybypop + CDD18dailybypop + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Tue Oct 18 00:42:14 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lpop                    -1.3654e+00  1.9257e-01  -7.0905 6.135e-12 ***
## HDD16dailybypop          1.8527e-04  3.6011e-05   5.1449 4.211e-07 ***
## CDD18dailybypop          1.1927e-04  1.0698e-04   1.1149 0.2655810    
## EU_ETS_05               -4.0427e-02  3.3403e-02  -1.2103 0.2268892    
## EU_ETS_08               -7.9416e-02  3.3396e-02  -2.3780 0.0178760 *  
## EU_ETS_13               -1.6814e-01  2.9454e-02  -5.7085 2.231e-08 ***
## idAustria               -4.1151e+00  2.0779e-01 -19.8039 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -3.2310e+00  1.5432e-01 -20.9367 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -4.4684e-01  1.4909e-01  -2.9970 0.0028969 ** 
## idDenmark               -4.2282e+00  2.7919e-01 -15.1446 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -4.4352e+00  3.0293e-01 -14.6414 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                 4.5585e-02  2.2476e-01   0.2028 0.8393821    
## idGermany                2.2104e+00  2.7338e-01   8.0855 7.527e-15 ***
## idGreece                -2.4277e+00  1.3223e-01 -18.3604 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -4.9735e+00  3.2083e-01 -15.5022 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  9.7242e-01  2.0246e-01   4.8030 2.217e-06 ***
## idJapan                  3.2174e+00  3.4451e-01   9.3389 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idLuxembourg            -1.1645e+01  7.5021e-01 -15.5223 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.7103e+00  9.8154e-02 -17.4248 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -5.4219e+00  3.2188e-01 -16.8442 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -3.1882e+00  1.4491e-01 -22.0015 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                  2.4144e-01  1.5140e-01   1.5947 0.1115748    
## idSweden                -4.5326e+00  2.0049e-01 -22.6073 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -6.0203e+00  2.2530e-01 -26.7214 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          1.2508e+00  2.2394e-01   5.5852 4.332e-08 ***
## idUnitedStates           5.8317e+00  5.1475e-01  11.3293 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2000                 3.4910e+01  3.2395e+00  10.7764 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2001                 3.4928e+01  3.2407e+00  10.7779 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2002                 3.4985e+01  3.2414e+00  10.7931 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2003                 3.5001e+01  3.2432e+00  10.7922 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2004                 3.5021e+01  3.2442e+00  10.7950 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2005                 3.5058e+01  3.2473e+00  10.7962 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2006                 3.5094e+01  3.2490e+00  10.8017 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2007                 3.5105e+01  3.2502e+00  10.8010 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2008                 3.5107e+01  3.2533e+00  10.7911 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2009                 3.5048e+01  3.2548e+00  10.7679 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2010                 3.5031e+01  3.2561e+00  10.7587 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2011                 3.5057e+01  3.2572e+00  10.7631 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2012                 3.5037e+01  3.2583e+00  10.7532 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2013                 3.5104e+01  3.2622e+00  10.7608 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2014                 3.5080e+01  3.2634e+00  10.7495 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2015                 3.5090e+01  3.2634e+00  10.7525 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2016                 3.5044e+01  3.2622e+00  10.7425 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2017                 3.5056e+01  3.2635e+00  10.7418 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2018                 3.4989e+01  3.2647e+00  10.7172 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2019                 3.4895e+01  3.2651e+00  10.6875 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2020                 3.4818e+01  3.2662e+00  10.6603 < 2.2e-16 ***
## time2021                 3.4829e+01  3.2664e+00  10.6628 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis267                  -5.2471e-01  1.3637e-01  -3.8476 0.0001389 ***
## fesisAustria.2016        2.2948e-01  4.7681e-02   4.8128 2.117e-06 ***
## fesisSwitzerland.2018    3.3336e-01  5.6113e-02   5.9408 6.193e-09 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012       -2.7880e-01  6.2439e-02  -4.4650 1.044e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -3.3846e-01  6.7291e-02  -5.0298 7.445e-07 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.2439e-01  4.8029e-02  -8.8361 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisGreece.2015        -2.7008e-01  4.7006e-02  -5.7456 1.823e-08 ***
## fesisIreland.2015        1.6603e-01  4.8549e-02   3.4198 0.0006914 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.1369e+00  1.0101e-01  11.2563 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015    -4.8974e-01  1.0301e-01  -4.7543 2.787e-06 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2016    -4.0299e-01  1.0516e-01  -3.8322 0.0001475 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    2.7821e-01  4.3954e-02   6.3295 6.636e-10 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         3.2318e-01  4.8939e-02   6.6037 1.286e-10 ***
## fesisAustralia.2016      2.3869e-01  5.2465e-02   4.5495 7.150e-06 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2013    -2.7929e-01  5.1417e-02  -5.4319 9.729e-08 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2019     3.3767e-01  6.9586e-02   4.8526 1.753e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   73.888  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 23.226  1  1.44e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09404
## R-squared          0.99769
## Log-lik.(n=462)  468.65820

## [1] "Formula: l_edgar_v7 ~ lpop + HDD16dailybypop + CDD18dailybypop + EU_ETS_05 + EU_ETS_08 + EU_ETS_13"
## [1] "EU15+selected (2000:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Tue Oct 18 00:42:14 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 462 
## Sample: 1 to 462 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                                coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## lpop                    -6.5073e-01  1.9070e-01  -3.4124 0.0007085 ***
## HDD16dailybypop          1.8156e-04  4.2959e-05   4.2264 2.934e-05 ***
## CDD18dailybypop          1.1907e-04  1.2774e-04   0.9321 0.3518274    
## EU_ETS_05               -3.2906e-02  4.0192e-02  -0.8187 0.4134196    
## EU_ETS_08               -7.0725e-02  4.0173e-02  -1.7605 0.0790683 .  
## EU_ETS_13               -1.5086e-01  3.2688e-02  -4.6152 5.270e-06 ***
## idAustria               -3.4358e+00  2.1976e-01 -15.6341 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idBelgium               -2.8006e+00  1.6713e-01 -16.7570 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idCanada                -8.0847e-01  1.6333e-01  -4.9500 1.089e-06 ***
## idDenmark               -3.3108e+00  2.9031e-01 -11.4045 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFinland               -3.4904e+00  3.2022e-01 -10.9001 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idFrance                -7.9835e-01  2.2103e-01  -3.6119 0.0003420 ***
## idGermany                1.1999e+00  2.7026e-01   4.4396 1.162e-05 ***
## idGreece                -2.0869e+00  1.3921e-01 -14.9912 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idIreland               -3.8518e+00  3.2541e-01 -11.8369 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idItaly                  1.9418e-01  1.9822e-01   0.9796 0.3278409    
## idJapan                  1.9081e+00  3.3741e-01   5.6552 2.937e-08 ***
## idLuxembourg            -9.2130e+00  7.5046e-01 -12.2765 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNetherlands           -1.5778e+00  1.1451e-01 -13.7787 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idNewZealand            -4.3966e+00  3.2426e-01 -13.5586 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idPortugal              -2.7299e+00  1.5108e-01 -18.0692 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSpain                 -3.4720e-01  1.4795e-01  -2.3468 0.0194146 *  
## idSweden                -3.9814e+00  2.1845e-01 -18.2257 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idSwitzerland           -5.2757e+00  2.3903e-01 -22.0719 < 2.2e-16 ***
## idUnitedKingdom          4.4051e-01  2.2318e-01   1.9738 0.0490821 *  
## idUnitedStates           3.8903e+00  5.0618e-01   7.6856 1.152e-13 ***
## time2000                 2.2929e+01  3.2141e+00   7.1338 4.501e-12 ***
## time2001                 2.2968e+01  3.2155e+00   7.1428 4.246e-12 ***
## time2002                 2.3009e+01  3.2161e+00   7.1543 3.941e-12 ***
## time2003                 2.3020e+01  3.2182e+00   7.1531 3.972e-12 ***
## time2004                 2.3035e+01  3.2188e+00   7.1563 3.889e-12 ***
## time2005                 2.3062e+01  3.2222e+00   7.1573 3.865e-12 ***
## time2006                 2.3092e+01  3.2240e+00   7.1624 3.739e-12 ***
## time2007                 2.3097e+01  3.2250e+00   7.1620 3.750e-12 ***
## time2008                 2.3087e+01  3.2280e+00   7.1522 3.996e-12 ***
## time2009                 2.3023e+01  3.2296e+00   7.1287 4.651e-12 ***
## time2010                 2.3003e+01  3.2309e+00   7.1195 4.935e-12 ***
## time2011                 2.3024e+01  3.2320e+00   7.1236 4.805e-12 ***
## time2012                 2.3000e+01  3.2332e+00   7.1136 5.125e-12 ***
## time2013                 2.3037e+01  3.2402e+00   7.1096 5.260e-12 ***
## time2014                 2.3008e+01  3.2414e+00   7.0981 5.666e-12 ***
## time2015                 2.3033e+01  3.2415e+00   7.1057 5.394e-12 ***
## time2016                 2.2990e+01  3.2421e+00   7.0910 5.929e-12 ***
## time2017                 2.2997e+01  3.2435e+00   7.0902 5.958e-12 ***
## time2018                 2.2941e+01  3.2454e+00   7.0688 6.838e-12 ***
## time2019                 2.2859e+01  3.2461e+00   7.0419 8.123e-12 ***
## time2020                 2.2778e+01  3.2472e+00   7.0145 9.677e-12 ***
## time2021                 2.2787e+01  3.2472e+00   7.0175 9.495e-12 ***
## fesisDenmark.2012       -2.6255e-01  7.5114e-02  -3.4954 0.0005255 ***
## fesisDenmark.2015       -3.7645e-01  8.0464e-02  -4.6785 3.940e-06 ***
## fesisUnitedKingdom.2016 -4.6778e-01  5.6642e-02  -8.2586 2.087e-15 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002     1.3514e+00  8.9455e-02  15.1068 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015    -9.7422e-01  6.3708e-02 -15.2918 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisNetherlands.2014    2.6381e-01  5.2292e-02   5.0450 6.848e-07 ***
## fesisSweden.2016         2.6300e-01  5.7309e-02   4.5892 5.936e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   104.773  1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  63.737  1 1.443e-15 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.11321
## R-squared          0.99658
## Log-lik.(n=462)  378.43349

Growth Rates

Note: As Moritz mentioned on Tuesday, when looking at growth rates what we understand as “breaks” are represented by the grey impulse lines. I have therefore excluded the plots analogous to the right-hand ones above.

AR = 0

p = 0.1

## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp + d.lpop + d.lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.1; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Thu Oct 20 14:34:55 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                            coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## d.lgdp                0.0895483  0.7915250   0.1131 0.9099644    
## d.lpop               -1.5249089  0.9060808  -1.6830 0.0929300 .  
## d.lgdp_sq            -0.0015310  0.0146396  -0.1046 0.9167476    
## idAustria            -0.0094498  0.0213538  -0.4425 0.6582713    
## idBelgium            -0.0355573  0.0212130  -1.6762 0.0942482 .  
## idCanada             -0.0241672  0.0199384  -1.2121 0.2259807    
## idDenmark            -0.0475081  0.0399649  -1.1887 0.2350367    
## idFinland            -0.0469664  0.0223815  -2.0984 0.0363069 *  
## idFrance             -0.0361187  0.0215840  -1.6734 0.0947992 .  
## idGermany            -0.0436581  0.0224470  -1.9449 0.0522752 .  
## idGreece             -0.0426673  0.0223867  -1.9059 0.0571647 .  
## idIreland            -0.0159579  0.0202187  -0.7893 0.4302870    
## idItaly              -0.0343955  0.0225801  -1.5233 0.1282490    
## idJapan              -0.0162095  0.0228984  -0.7079 0.4793040    
## idLuxembourg          0.0042318  0.0239877   0.1764 0.8600306    
## idNetherlands        -0.0205754  0.0210802  -0.9761 0.3294535    
## idNewZealand          0.1180943  0.0501282   2.3558 0.0188194 *  
## idPortugal           -0.0130278  0.0243732  -0.5345 0.5931944    
## idSpain              -0.0227504  0.0370149  -0.6146 0.5390469    
## idSweden             -0.0239440  0.0252324  -0.9489 0.3430556    
## idSwitzerland        -0.0053032  0.0204398  -0.2595 0.7953769    
## idUnitedKingdom      -0.0548746  0.0211372  -2.5961 0.0096724 ** 
## idUnitedStates       -0.0193678  0.0204574  -0.9467 0.3441730    
## time1990              0.0603012  0.0279933   2.1541 0.0316499 *  
## time1991              0.0845342  0.0267884   3.1556 0.0016863 ** 
## time1992              0.0369667  0.0260057   1.4215 0.1557255    
## time1993              0.0043582  0.0263719   0.1653 0.8687981    
## time1994              0.0726177  0.0259141   2.8022 0.0052480 ** 
## time1995              0.0647220  0.0269311   2.4032 0.0165700 *  
## time1996              0.0449702  0.0273061   1.6469 0.1001335    
## time1997              0.0437320  0.0256021   1.7081 0.0881566 .  
## time1998              0.0534834  0.0251914   2.1231 0.0341792 *  
## time1999              0.0328642  0.0247559   1.3275 0.1848663    
## time2000              0.0469295  0.0256440   1.8300 0.0677682 .  
## time2001              0.0727997  0.0254459   2.8610 0.0043792 ** 
## time2002              0.0750426  0.0264882   2.8331 0.0047743 ** 
## time2003              0.0749123  0.0279787   2.6775 0.0076324 ** 
## time2004              0.0341523  0.0267701   1.2758 0.2025605    
## time2005              0.0553236  0.0259127   2.1350 0.0331881 *  
## time2006              0.0080816  0.0264759   0.3052 0.7602924    
## time2007              0.0138333  0.0267344   0.5174 0.6050560    
## time2008             -0.0021945  0.0264575  -0.0829 0.9339240    
## time2009             -0.0114466  0.0262281  -0.4364 0.6626950    
## time2010              0.0765338  0.0257895   2.9676 0.0031274 ** 
## time2011             -0.0341738  0.0254261  -1.3440 0.1794704    
## time2012              0.0308241  0.0249501   1.2354 0.2171827    
## time2013             -0.0183089  0.0258176  -0.7092 0.4785132    
## time2014             -0.0378938  0.0253104  -1.4972 0.1349053    
## time2015              0.0319757  0.0269702   1.1856 0.2362777    
## time2016              0.0067697  0.0260328   0.2600 0.7949228    
## time2017              0.0379184  0.0256957   1.4757 0.1405869    
## time2018             -0.0132034  0.0256032  -0.5157 0.6062687    
## time2019             -0.0357066  0.0253414  -1.4090 0.1593745    
## time2020             -0.0647879  0.0250305  -2.5884 0.0098904 ** 
## time2021              0.0758687  0.0252132   3.0091 0.0027365 ** 
## iis61                -0.2267731  0.0826514  -2.7437 0.0062665 ** 
## iis117                1.1269357  0.0825257  13.6556 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis176                0.2674803  0.0889470   3.0072 0.0027534 ** 
## iis181                0.4252434  0.0844614   5.0348 6.434e-07 ***
## iis191                0.4293514  0.0838228   5.1221 4.144e-07 ***
## iis225                0.2632602  0.0854929   3.0793 0.0021750 ** 
## iis227               -0.2298018  0.0857692  -2.6793 0.0075914 ** 
## iis236                0.2163414  0.0839460   2.5771 0.0102130 *  
## iis239                0.2682668  0.0832826   3.2212 0.0013497 ** 
## iis248               -0.4072757  0.0824852  -4.9376 1.041e-06 ***
## iis249                0.4442894  0.0825874   5.3796 1.093e-07 ***
## iis265               -0.2619189  0.0826954  -3.1673 0.0016214 ** 
## iis270                0.3177129  0.0825141   3.8504 0.0001313 ***
## iis411               -0.2989979  0.0830982  -3.5981 0.0003485 ***
## iis412               -0.4774887  0.0833235  -5.7305 1.626e-08 ***
## iis413               -0.2391629  0.0842075  -2.8402 0.0046707 ** 
## iis414               -0.5160682  0.0843660  -6.1170 1.776e-09 ***
## iis415               -1.0807143  0.0832408 -12.9830 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                0.2372289  0.0836124   2.8372 0.0047129 ** 
## iis418                0.5180111  0.0834450   6.2078 1.037e-09 ***
## iis419                0.9587583  0.0833120  11.5080 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis430               -0.3346554  0.0834234  -4.0115 6.840e-05 ***
## iis432               -0.3832361  0.0851250  -4.5020 8.170e-06 ***
## iis433               -0.5497852  0.0832781  -6.6018 9.336e-11 ***
## iis471               -0.2654169  0.0835253  -3.1777 0.0015653 ** 
## iis474                0.2193393  0.0829357   2.6447 0.0084027 ** 
## iis485               -0.3402443  0.0829547  -4.1016 4.704e-05 ***
## iis490                0.1861044  0.0834259   2.2308 0.0260858 *  
## iis500                0.3586268  0.0843255   4.2529 2.468e-05 ***
## iis501               -0.3159895  0.0836255  -3.7786 0.0001743 ***
## iis504               -0.2234496  0.0835423  -2.6747 0.0076954 ** 
## iis593               -0.1585871  0.0839180  -1.8898 0.0592954 .  
## iis619               -0.2215637  0.0935966  -2.3672 0.0182565 *  
## fesisDenmark.1996    -0.0769208  0.0420790  -1.8280 0.0680727 .  
## fesisDenmark.2013     0.2936537  0.0839443   3.4982 0.0005051 ***
## fesisDenmark.2014    -0.3926157  0.0995230  -3.9450 8.980e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2016     0.3454302  0.0994260   3.4742 0.0005514 ***
## fesisDenmark.2017    -0.2185962  0.0936908  -2.3332 0.0199875 *  
## fesisDenmark.2021     0.1979861  0.0936482   2.1141 0.0349378 *  
## fesisSpain.1996      -0.2070761  0.0883009  -2.3451 0.0193643 *  
## fesisSpain.1997       0.2574255  0.0855536   3.0089 0.0027379 ** 
## fesisSpain.2008      -0.2016584  0.0529783  -3.8064 0.0001563 ***
## fesisSpain.2011       0.1389001  0.0544673   2.5502 0.0110289 *  
## fesisPortugal.2018   -0.1951067  0.0438814  -4.4462 1.051e-05 ***
## fesisSweden.2010      0.2419954  0.0839390   2.8830 0.0040883 ** 
## fesisSweden.2011     -0.2447561  0.0850297  -2.8785 0.0041464 ** 
## fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.2903447  0.0690181  -4.2068 3.010e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1996  0.4649353  0.0750472   6.1952 1.118e-09 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.2948770  0.0601827  -4.8997 1.254e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df  p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   14.8092  1 0.000119 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1)  7.8778  1 0.005004 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.07907
## R-squared          0.71595
## Log-lik.(n=672)  803.57958

p = 0.05

## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp + d.lpop + d.lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.05; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Thu Oct 20 14:34:57 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                            coef  std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## d.lgdp               -0.4171734  0.8338386  -0.5003 0.6170477    
## d.lpop               -0.9322861  0.9384933  -0.9934 0.3209305    
## d.lgdp_sq             0.0076991  0.0154485   0.4984 0.6184078    
## idAustria            -0.0109561  0.0228714  -0.4790 0.6320935    
## idBelgium            -0.0299796  0.0229408  -1.3068 0.1917819    
## idCanada             -0.0229092  0.0216754  -1.0569 0.2909806    
## idDenmark            -0.0978084  0.0263241  -3.7155 0.0002221 ***
## idFinland             0.0096330  0.0287713   0.3348 0.7378860    
## idFrance             -0.0314642  0.0233218  -1.3491 0.1778148    
## idGermany            -0.0376495  0.0241422  -1.5595 0.1194190    
## idGreece             -0.0349279  0.0241088  -1.4488 0.1479379    
## idIreland            -0.0122986  0.0219755  -0.5597 0.5759305    
## idItaly              -0.0277122  0.0242743  -1.1416 0.2540747    
## idJapan              -0.0093323  0.0245816  -0.3796 0.7043466    
## idLuxembourg          0.0034483  0.0486156   0.0709 0.9434771    
## idNetherlands        -0.0155759  0.0228056  -0.6830 0.4948841    
## idNewZealand          0.1139158  0.0544570   2.0918 0.0368803 *  
## idPortugal           -0.0019861  0.0414667  -0.0479 0.9618151    
## idSpain              -0.0252345  0.0225161  -1.1207 0.2628603    
## idSweden             -0.0200586  0.0227599  -0.8813 0.3785086    
## idSwitzerland        -0.0020047  0.0221897  -0.0903 0.9280461    
## idUnitedKingdom      -0.0507561  0.0228504  -2.2212 0.0267155 *  
## idUnitedStates       -0.0192793  0.0221871  -0.8689 0.3852314    
## time1990              0.0576298  0.0298246   1.9323 0.0538038 .  
## time1991              0.0735168  0.0287863   2.5539 0.0109040 *  
## time1992              0.0199230  0.0277288   0.7185 0.4727370    
## time1993              0.0064265  0.0283034   0.2271 0.8204584    
## time1994              0.0711030  0.0274276   2.5924 0.0097682 ** 
## time1995              0.0561020  0.0284874   1.9694 0.0493809 *  
## time1996              0.0473973  0.0280488   1.6898 0.0915936 .  
## time1997              0.0273895  0.0274331   0.9984 0.3184913    
## time1998              0.0450438  0.0271881   1.6568 0.0981034 .  
## time1999              0.0350429  0.0264997   1.3224 0.1865529    
## time2000              0.0258002  0.0272925   0.9453 0.3448821    
## time2001              0.0639962  0.0274090   2.3349 0.0198861 *  
## time2002              0.0590765  0.0282920   2.0881 0.0372185 *  
## time2003              0.0682202  0.0299215   2.2800 0.0229666 *  
## time2004              0.0259545  0.0286956   0.9045 0.3661130    
## time2005              0.0484277  0.0278306   1.7401 0.0823663 .  
## time2006              0.0020341  0.0284277   0.0716 0.9429809    
## time2007              0.0081925  0.0286371   0.2861 0.7749173    
## time2008             -0.0186620  0.0282113  -0.6615 0.5085453    
## time2009             -0.0280552  0.0281708  -0.9959 0.3197100    
## time2010              0.0735781  0.0273820   2.6871 0.0074115 ** 
## time2011             -0.0300038  0.0270154  -1.1106 0.2671857    
## time2012              0.0216511  0.0268270   0.8071 0.4199548    
## time2013             -0.0373965  0.0272849  -1.3706 0.1710249    
## time2014             -0.0515347  0.0270197  -1.9073 0.0569685 .  
## time2015              0.0271972  0.0284686   0.9553 0.3397993    
## time2016              0.0098061  0.0276434   0.3547 0.7229138    
## time2017              0.0300915  0.0274222   1.0973 0.2729407    
## time2018             -0.0197233  0.0273362  -0.7215 0.4708824    
## time2019             -0.0528202  0.0268917  -1.9642 0.0499795 *  
## time2020             -0.0707070  0.0267974  -2.6386 0.0085460 ** 
## time2021              0.0809468  0.0268279   3.0173 0.0026611 ** 
## iis117                1.1259344  0.0898089  12.5370 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis176                0.3274934  0.0905049   3.6185 0.0003218 ***
## iis181                0.3932319  0.0907355   4.3338 1.724e-05 ***
## iis191                0.4082163  0.0904858   4.5114 7.779e-06 ***
## iis248               -0.3901606  0.0910828  -4.2836 2.148e-05 ***
## iis249                0.4608119  0.0911911   5.0533 5.807e-07 ***
## iis265               -0.2706869  0.0899241  -3.0102 0.0027230 ** 
## iis270                0.3189546  0.0897759   3.5528 0.0004117 ***
## iis415               -1.0805621  0.0910188 -11.8719 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis417                0.2453460  0.0912135   2.6898 0.0073525 ** 
## iis418                0.5173066  0.0911866   5.6731 2.203e-08 ***
## iis419                0.9722693  0.0911025  10.6723 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis430               -0.3280591  0.0910391  -3.6035 0.0003406 ***
## iis432               -0.4018179  0.0924434  -4.3466 1.629e-05 ***
## iis433               -0.5668547  0.0908740  -6.2378 8.486e-10 ***
## iis485               -0.3677877  0.0904283  -4.0672 5.407e-05 ***
## iis500                0.3531381  0.0902226   3.9141 0.0001014 ***
## iis501               -0.3055729  0.0898932  -3.3993 0.0007214 ***
## fesisDenmark.2013     0.2844747  0.0905003   3.1434 0.0017544 ** 
## fesisDenmark.2014    -0.2874451  0.0936482  -3.0694 0.0022437 ** 
## fesisFinland.2005    -0.0678803  0.0323133  -2.1007 0.0360932 *  
## fesisLuxembourg.1994 -0.3804449  0.0631611  -6.0234 3.012e-09 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1998  0.3841814  0.0493525   7.7844 3.171e-14 ***
## fesisPortugal.1996   -0.2797755  0.0957982  -2.9205 0.0036291 ** 
## fesisPortugal.1997    0.2983392  0.0907573   3.2872 0.0010721 ** 
## fesisPortugal.2018   -0.2178727  0.0483330  -4.5077 7.910e-06 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1993 -0.2839141  0.0748825  -3.7915 0.0001652 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1996  0.4618441  0.0813194   5.6794 2.127e-08 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1998 -0.2981683  0.0651898  -4.5739 5.842e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   25.530  1 4.355e-07 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 29.768  1 4.869e-08 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.08604
## R-squared          0.65183
## Log-lik.(n=672)  736.81293

p = 0.01

## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp + d.lpop + d.lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Thu Oct 13 22:27:34 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                             coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## d.lgdp               -0.97171574  0.87484353  -1.1107 0.2671291    
## d.lpop               -0.71666132  0.98985591  -0.7240 0.4693444    
## d.lgdp_sq             0.01732560  0.01625635   1.0658 0.2869545    
## idAustria            -0.00875275  0.02455038  -0.3565 0.7215750    
## idBelgium            -0.02786428  0.02462343  -1.1316 0.2582478    
## idCanada             -0.02300956  0.02331690  -0.9868 0.3241291    
## idDenmark            -0.07545033  0.02524889  -2.9883 0.0029204 ** 
## idFinland            -0.02199258  0.02548108  -0.8631 0.3884305    
## idFrance             -0.03945502  0.02485236  -1.5876 0.1129090    
## idGermany            -0.03649156  0.02589105  -1.4094 0.1592269    
## idGreece             -0.03202957  0.02583580  -1.2397 0.2155577    
## idIreland            -0.00858405  0.02360063  -0.3637 0.7161942    
## idItaly              -0.02624582  0.02602773  -1.0084 0.3136788    
## idJapan              -0.00819336  0.02635541  -0.3109 0.7560002    
## idLuxembourg          0.00863193  0.05203749   0.1659 0.8683081    
## idNetherlands        -0.01384395  0.02448587  -0.5654 0.5720232    
## idNewZealand         -0.00212914  0.02360348  -0.0902 0.9281548    
## idPortugal           -0.00726643  0.02702183  -0.2689 0.7880916    
## idSpain              -0.02416882  0.02419026  -0.9991 0.3181423    
## idSweden             -0.02860234  0.02430119  -1.1770 0.2396648    
## idSwitzerland        -0.00063466  0.02385285  -0.0266 0.9787819    
## idUnitedKingdom      -0.05006675  0.02454262  -2.0400 0.0417885 *  
## idUnitedStates       -0.02100705  0.02385457  -0.8806 0.3788707    
## time1990              0.07151116  0.03175396   2.2520 0.0246806 *  
## time1991              0.09438415  0.03035835   3.1090 0.0019661 ** 
## time1992              0.02722311  0.02965103   0.9181 0.3589266    
## time1993             -0.01844867  0.02949986  -0.6254 0.5319584    
## time1994              0.06567437  0.02928392   2.2427 0.0252820 *  
## time1995              0.05396188  0.03049013   1.7698 0.0772659 .  
## time1996              0.04910585  0.02953524   1.6626 0.0969110 .  
## time1997              0.00611146  0.02906083   0.2103 0.8335058    
## time1998              0.04539541  0.02910000   1.5600 0.1192919    
## time1999              0.02813978  0.02859915   0.9839 0.3255428    
## time2000              0.02718712  0.02899017   0.9378 0.3487221    
## time2001              0.06460931  0.02931856   2.2037 0.0279245 *  
## time2002              0.06300143  0.03027972   2.0806 0.0378898 *  
## time2003              0.07725067  0.03198682   2.4151 0.0160298 *  
## time2004              0.03209092  0.03070865   1.0450 0.2964380    
## time2005              0.04955461  0.02978549   1.6637 0.0966912 .  
## time2006              0.00443258  0.03044085   0.1456 0.8842760    
## time2007              0.01026585  0.03066693   0.3348 0.7379283    
## time2008             -0.01889559  0.03018956  -0.6259 0.5316198    
## time2009             -0.03330425  0.03001375  -1.1096 0.2676017    
## time2010              0.05437936  0.02894052   1.8790 0.0607284 .  
## time2011             -0.02971100  0.02894682  -1.0264 0.3051171    
## time2012              0.01796716  0.02865336   0.6271 0.5308634    
## time2013             -0.04024304  0.02866793  -1.4038 0.1609062    
## time2014             -0.05334328  0.02891829  -1.8446 0.0655854 .  
## time2015              0.02065174  0.03036384   0.6801 0.4966766    
## time2016              0.00664970  0.02958963   0.2247 0.8222652    
## time2017              0.02920098  0.02936537   0.9944 0.3204281    
## time2018             -0.02159870  0.02928956  -0.7374 0.4611555    
## time2019             -0.05696005  0.02876059  -1.9805 0.0481048 *  
## time2020             -0.07448664  0.02866326  -2.5987 0.0095883 ** 
## time2021              0.08120292  0.02878809   2.8207 0.0049502 ** 
## iis117                1.12079783  0.09656607  11.6065 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis181                0.36871879  0.09661435   3.8164 0.0001495 ***
## iis191                0.38595033  0.09658524   3.9960 7.245e-05 ***
## iis248               -0.42631277  0.09644370  -4.4203 1.170e-05 ***
## iis249                0.42437020  0.09657334   4.3943 1.314e-05 ***
## iis270                0.32631028  0.09653070   3.3804 0.0007709 ***
## iis415               -1.24959559  0.11629346 -10.7452 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418                0.34594650  0.11628478   2.9750 0.0030478 ** 
## iis419                0.99609886  0.09803795  10.1603 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis432               -0.39019639  0.09925917  -3.9311 9.442e-05 ***
## iis433               -0.54526686  0.09773041  -5.5793 3.658e-08 ***
## iis500                0.36375241  0.09678675   3.7583 0.0001878 ***
## iis588                0.39441839  0.09663826   4.0814 5.083e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1994 -0.37658612  0.06783408  -5.5516 4.255e-08 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1998  0.54403278  0.08222747   6.6162 8.173e-11 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2002 -0.18929293  0.07112976  -2.6612 0.0079939 ** 
## fesisPortugal.2018   -0.19011117  0.05073252  -3.7473 0.0001960 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   21.090  1 4.383e-06 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 17.038  1 3.664e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09258
## R-squared          0.58871
## Log-lik.(n=672)  681.62780

p = 0.001

## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp + d.lpop + d.lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 0"
## 
## Date: Thu Oct 13 22:27:35 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 672 
## Sample: 1 to 672 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                       coef  std.error  t-stat   p-value    
## d.lgdp          -0.5681030  0.9598891 -0.5918  0.554175    
## d.lpop          -1.1457125  1.0899162 -1.0512  0.293586    
## d.lgdp_sq        0.0105578  0.0178550  0.5913  0.554535    
## idAustria       -0.0124367  0.0273050 -0.4555  0.648930    
## idBelgium       -0.0315640  0.0273866 -1.1525  0.249553    
## idCanada        -0.0235373  0.0259728 -0.9062  0.365174    
## idDenmark       -0.0560207  0.0276550 -2.0257  0.043231 *  
## idFinland       -0.0260070  0.0279416 -0.9308  0.352344    
## idFrance        -0.0318647  0.0274499 -1.1608  0.246165    
## idGermany       -0.0402991  0.0287943 -1.3996  0.162156    
## idGreece        -0.0370062  0.0287011 -1.2894  0.197760    
## idIreland       -0.0121614  0.0262645 -0.4630  0.643503    
## idItaly         -0.0302564  0.0289368 -1.0456  0.296159    
## idJapan         -0.0120061  0.0293003 -0.4098  0.682125    
## idLuxembourg    -0.0304886  0.0288287 -1.0576  0.290667    
## idNetherlands   -0.0171978  0.0272417 -0.6313  0.528078    
## idNewZealand     0.0089014  0.0260415  0.3418  0.732607    
## idPortugal      -0.0371338  0.0291240 -1.2750  0.202786    
## idSpain         -0.0267201  0.0269244 -0.9924  0.321391    
## idSweden        -0.0198478  0.0268715 -0.7386  0.460423    
## idSwitzerland   -0.0026404  0.0265588 -0.0994  0.920840    
## idUnitedKingdom -0.0526379  0.0273166 -1.9270  0.054449 .  
## idUnitedStates  -0.0208162  0.0265710 -0.7834  0.433687    
## time1990         0.0686428  0.0352445  1.9476  0.051919 .  
## time1991         0.0999042  0.0335134  2.9810  0.002987 ** 
## time1992         0.0303771  0.0327924  0.9263  0.354632    
## time1993        -0.0096531  0.0325012 -0.2970  0.766561    
## time1994         0.0498048  0.0324045  1.5370  0.124818    
## time1995         0.0549314  0.0341479  1.6086  0.108215    
## time1996         0.0702439  0.0318236  2.2073  0.027665 *  
## time1997         0.0373481  0.0322154  1.1593  0.246778    
## time1998         0.0645969  0.0319369  2.0226  0.043546 *  
## time1999         0.0404213  0.0315545  1.2810  0.200681    
## time2000         0.0428978  0.0319463  1.3428  0.179833    
## time2001         0.0680610  0.0325886  2.0885  0.037168 *  
## time2002         0.0632488  0.0336808  1.8779  0.060873 .  
## time2003         0.0738819  0.0356183  2.0743  0.038473 *  
## time2004         0.0314168  0.0341815  0.9191  0.358398    
## time2005         0.0323273  0.0327371  0.9875  0.323797    
## time2006         0.0459412  0.0330206  1.3913  0.164645    
## time2007         0.0104569  0.0341267  0.3064  0.759393    
## time2008        -0.0162372  0.0335728 -0.4836  0.628814    
## time2009        -0.0249775  0.0333481 -0.7490  0.454150    
## time2010         0.0583457  0.0321828  1.8129  0.070332 .  
## time2011        -0.0282916  0.0322069 -0.8784  0.380055    
## time2012         0.0240263  0.0318536  0.7543  0.450978    
## time2013        -0.0371437  0.0318972 -1.1645  0.244684    
## time2014        -0.0492498  0.0321622 -1.5313  0.126215    
## time2015         0.0109876  0.0335037  0.3280  0.743060    
## time2016         0.0102665  0.0328784  0.3123  0.754952    
## time2017         0.0323329  0.0326615  0.9899  0.322595    
## time2018        -0.0281462  0.0324978 -0.8661  0.386777    
## time2019        -0.0609555  0.0319054 -1.9105  0.056537 .  
## time2020        -0.0787173  0.0318079 -2.4748  0.013603 *  
## time2021         0.0714948  0.0319522  2.2376  0.025610 *  
## iis117           1.1180479  0.1075342 10.3971 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis412          -0.4243528  0.1081335 -3.9243 9.687e-05 ***
## iis414          -0.4852428  0.1088358 -4.4585 9.825e-06 ***
## iis415          -1.0593335  0.1078383 -9.8234 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis418           0.5535664  0.1081342  5.1193 4.117e-07 ***
## iis419           1.0094791  0.1080229  9.3450 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis433          -0.5247283  0.1078551 -4.8651 1.458e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   28.076  1 1.166e-07 ***
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 46.023  1 1.169e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.10313
## R-squared          0.48109
## Log-lik.(n=672)  604.07971

AR = 1

p = 0.1

## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp + d.lpop + d.lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.1; AR: 1"
## 
## Date: Thu Oct 20 14:34:45 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651 
## Sample: 1 to 651 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                             coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## ar1                  -7.7968e-02  2.4910e-02  -3.1300 0.0018436 ** 
## d.lgdp               -8.8978e+02  1.3710e+02  -6.4901 1.958e-10 ***
## d.lpop               -1.5633e+01  2.8865e+00  -5.4161 9.219e-08 ***
## d.lgdp_sq             1.5173e+01  2.3314e+00   6.5079 1.755e-10 ***
## idAustria            -5.2610e-03  1.8366e-02  -0.2865 0.7746422    
## idBelgium            -2.7130e-02  1.8216e-02  -1.4893 0.1369988    
## idCanada             -1.8118e-02  1.8214e-02  -0.9947 0.3203098    
## idDenmark            -9.4205e-02  2.6471e-02  -3.5588 0.0004058 ***
## idFinland            -1.3431e-02  2.4735e-02  -0.5430 0.5873533    
## idFrance              1.2913e-01  7.4853e-02   1.7251 0.0850904 .  
## idGermany            -2.7477e-02  1.8224e-02  -1.5077 0.1322099    
## idGreece             -2.8179e-02  1.8219e-02  -1.5467 0.1225377    
## idIreland            -1.3698e-02  1.8211e-02  -0.7522 0.4522757    
## idItaly              -1.9255e-02  1.8213e-02  -1.0572 0.2908916    
## idJapan              -5.9927e-04  1.8206e-02  -0.0329 0.9737538    
## idLuxembourg         -3.2932e-02  2.4686e-02  -1.3340 0.1827592    
## idNetherlands        -6.4844e-03  1.8209e-02  -0.3561 0.7218936    
## idNewZealand          1.3250e-01  5.3585e-02   2.4726 0.0137225 *  
## idPortugal            1.6413e-02  2.0097e-02   0.8167 0.4144707    
## idSpain               2.0060e-02  2.2294e-02   0.8998 0.3686479    
## idSweden             -1.0219e-02  2.2307e-02  -0.4581 0.6470468    
## idSwitzerland         4.4689e-03  1.8228e-02   0.2452 0.8064221    
## idUnitedKingdom      -4.8027e-02  1.8244e-02  -2.6325 0.0087200 ** 
## idUnitedStates       -1.5094e-02  1.8211e-02  -0.8288 0.4075823    
## time1991              2.0695e+00  2.9788e-01   6.9472 1.086e-11 ***
## time1992             -1.7726e+00  3.1466e-01  -5.6335 2.858e-08 ***
## time1993             -1.5982e+00  2.7788e-01  -5.7515 1.489e-08 ***
## time1994              3.3602e-01  4.1141e-02   8.1675 2.279e-15 ***
## time1995              3.1585e+00  4.7574e-01   6.6391 7.763e-11 ***
## time1996              2.8250e+00  4.2506e-01   6.6461 7.431e-11 ***
## time1997              2.8452e+00  4.3179e-01   6.5895 1.059e-10 ***
## time1998             -1.9414e+00  3.3432e-01  -5.8070 1.091e-08 ***
## time1999              4.4801e+00  6.9752e-01   6.4228 2.957e-10 ***
## time2000              5.9253e+00  9.2558e-01   6.4016 3.365e-10 ***
## time2001             -2.4324e-01  7.8741e-02  -3.0892 0.0021114 ** 
## time2002              1.9606e+00  2.8471e-01   6.8864 1.611e-11 ***
## time2003              9.5300e+00  1.5020e+00   6.3448 4.748e-10 ***
## time2004              7.3411e+00  1.1629e+00   6.3129 5.754e-10 ***
## time2005              6.6482e+00  1.0508e+00   6.3268 5.293e-10 ***
## time2006              5.3929e+00  8.5788e-01   6.2863 6.751e-10 ***
## time2007              4.5840e+00  7.2862e-01   6.2914 6.551e-10 ***
## time2008              2.3087e+00  3.6013e-01   6.4108 3.182e-10 ***
## time2009             -4.7187e+00  7.9306e-01  -5.9500 4.849e-09 ***
## time2010              6.6097e+00  1.0500e+00   6.2951 6.405e-10 ***
## time2011              3.7509e+00  6.0419e-01   6.2081 1.077e-09 ***
## time2012              8.3665e-01  1.1521e-01   7.2618 1.356e-12 ***
## time2013              4.5907e-01  6.6253e-02   6.9290 1.222e-11 ***
## time2014             -6.4289e-01  1.2441e-01  -5.1677 3.352e-07 ***
## time2015             -5.1680e+00  8.7316e-01  -5.9188 5.799e-09 ***
## time2016             -5.3414e-01  1.1765e-01  -4.5401 6.950e-06 ***
## time2017              3.0520e+00  4.7417e-01   6.4365 2.720e-10 ***
## time2018              1.7762e+00  2.7188e-01   6.5330 1.503e-10 ***
## iis33                -2.3789e-01  7.4836e-02  -3.1787 0.0015647 ** 
## iis125                3.4280e-01  7.7187e-02   4.4411 1.088e-05 ***
## iis130                3.8653e-01  7.7893e-02   4.9623 9.377e-07 ***
## iis140                4.6030e-01  7.7267e-02   5.9572 4.654e-09 ***
## iis147                3.1306e-01  7.7442e-02   4.0425 6.066e-05 ***
## iis151               -2.9083e-01  8.2659e-02  -3.5184 0.0004712 ***
## iis153               -3.4370e-01  8.2394e-02  -4.1714 3.532e-05 ***
## iis158                1.7833e-01  7.6764e-02   2.3230 0.0205511 *  
## iis161                2.3194e-01  7.7355e-02   2.9984 0.0028405 ** 
## iis170               -3.2351e-01  9.0254e-02  -3.5845 0.0003687 ***
## iis171                5.0543e-01  9.1320e-02   5.5347 4.890e-08 ***
## iis188               -2.1531e-01  7.5114e-02  -2.8665 0.0043139 ** 
## iis189               -2.9301e-01  7.5216e-02  -3.8956 0.0001104 ***
## iis194                3.0067e-01  7.5026e-02   4.0075 7.006e-05 ***
## iis197               -1.6961e-01  7.4993e-02  -2.2616 0.0241225 *  
## iis376               -2.5813e-01  7.6517e-02  -3.3736 0.0007958 ***
## iis377               -4.6265e-01  7.6802e-02  -6.0239 3.169e-09 ***
## iis378               -2.4700e-01  7.8062e-02  -3.1641 0.0016440 ** 
## iis379               -4.9282e-01  7.6885e-02  -6.4099 3.201e-10 ***
## iis380               -1.0805e+00  7.7565e-02 -13.9301 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis382                2.8407e-01  7.6619e-02   3.7076 0.0002311 ***
## iis383                5.7262e-01  7.6877e-02   7.4485 3.810e-13 ***
## iis384                1.0463e+00  7.7797e-02  13.4485 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis386                1.9314e-01  7.6477e-02   2.5254 0.0118444 *  
## iis391                1.8355e-01  7.6635e-02   2.3951 0.0169569 *  
## iis397               -3.8661e-01  7.9563e-02  -4.8591 1.551e-06 ***
## iis398               -5.8543e-01  7.9641e-02  -7.3510 7.416e-13 ***
## iis441                1.9850e-01  1.0485e-01   1.8931 0.0588854 .  
## iis446               -1.8542e-01  7.7236e-02  -2.4007 0.0167034 *  
## iis471               -2.7932e-01  7.5928e-02  -3.6788 0.0002580 ***
## iis474                2.1361e-01  7.5287e-02   2.8373 0.0047228 ** 
## iis478               -2.5777e-01  7.5247e-02  -3.4256 0.0006605 ***
## iis485               -3.5481e-01  7.5497e-02  -4.6997 3.318e-06 ***
## iis490                1.8489e-01  7.5285e-02   2.4559 0.0143695 *  
## iis502               -2.3695e-01  7.6504e-02  -3.0972 0.0020559 ** 
## iis516               -1.5542e-01  9.0215e-02  -1.7227 0.0855142 .  
## iis517                2.2523e-01  7.7816e-02   2.8944 0.0039541 ** 
## iis519               -2.2234e-01  7.7667e-02  -2.8627 0.0043650 ** 
## iis533                3.4679e-01  7.6500e-02   4.5332 7.175e-06 ***
## iis534               -2.7913e-01  7.6512e-02  -3.6481 0.0002900 ***
## iis537               -2.2793e-01  7.5867e-02  -3.0043 0.0027864 ** 
## iis547                3.7435e-01  9.0332e-02   4.1442 3.964e-05 ***
## fesisDenmark.2003     2.0663e-01  7.7171e-02   2.6775 0.0076446 ** 
## fesisDenmark.2004    -2.6437e-01  7.7181e-02  -3.4254 0.0006611 ***
## fesisDenmark.2016     2.0030e-01  4.3907e-02   4.5620 6.290e-06 ***
## fesisFinland.2005    -1.1236e-01  5.6230e-02  -1.9982 0.0461965 *  
## fesisFinland.2009     2.1343e-01  7.3859e-02   2.8897 0.0040125 ** 
## fesisFinland.2011    -2.9214e-01  7.3766e-02  -3.9604 8.495e-05 ***
## fesisFinland.2013     1.7018e-01  5.7684e-02   2.9503 0.0033139 ** 
## fesisFrance.1992     -1.4182e-01  7.5180e-02  -1.8864 0.0597789 .  
## fesisLuxembourg.2013 -3.1613e-01  7.6726e-02  -4.1203 4.384e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2014  3.3896e-01  7.9674e-02   4.2544 2.475e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.0870e-01  6.7233e-02  -4.5916 5.490e-06 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1996  3.7044e-01  8.5538e-02   4.3307 1.775e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1998 -1.5647e-01  7.7864e-02  -2.0095 0.0449883 *  
## fesisNewZealand.2009 -2.1619e-01  5.7178e-02  -3.7810 0.0001738 ***
## fesisNewZealand.2011  2.3126e-01  7.3760e-02   3.1353 0.0018113 ** 
## fesisNewZealand.2013 -1.7145e-01  6.3872e-02  -2.6843 0.0074931 ** 
## fesisNewZealand.2017  1.8191e-01  4.9396e-02   3.6826 0.0002543 ***
## fesisPortugal.2018   -2.0588e-01  4.0160e-02  -5.1264 4.134e-07 ***
## fesisSpain.2008      -1.4268e-01  5.5205e-02  -2.5845 0.0100144 *  
## fesisSpain.2011       1.0282e-01  5.7598e-02   1.7852 0.0747971 .  
## fesisSweden.2010     -1.4429e-01  5.5320e-02  -2.6083 0.0093541 ** 
## fesisSweden.2013      1.6126e-01  5.7677e-02   2.7959 0.0053622 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                   Chi-sq df p-value  
## Ljung-Box AR(1)   2.2459  1 0.13397  
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 4.2218  1 0.03991 *
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.07168
## R-squared          0.74850
## Log-lik.(n=651)  850.04008

p = 0.05

## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp + d.lpop + d.lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.05; AR: 1"
## 
## Date: Thu Oct 20 14:34:46 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651 
## Sample: 1 to 651 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                             coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## ar1                  -9.3814e-02  2.7892e-02  -3.3635 0.0008214 ***
## d.lgdp               -9.5984e+02  1.5829e+02  -6.0639 2.425e-09 ***
## d.lpop               -1.3983e+01  3.3511e+00  -4.1725 3.484e-05 ***
## d.lgdp_sq             1.6358e+01  2.6921e+00   6.0763 2.255e-09 ***
## idAustria            -1.3048e-02  2.1256e-02  -0.6138 0.5395608    
## idBelgium            -2.7524e-02  2.1266e-02  -1.2943 0.1960972    
## idCanada             -1.8461e-02  2.1263e-02  -0.8682 0.3856531    
## idDenmark            -1.0130e-01  2.2099e-02  -4.5839 5.616e-06 ***
## idFinland             1.4917e-02  2.7227e-02   0.5479 0.5839946    
## idFrance              1.2344e-01  8.7362e-02   1.4129 0.1582226    
## idGermany            -2.7988e-02  2.1274e-02  -1.3156 0.1888333    
## idGreece             -2.8625e-02  2.1269e-02  -1.3458 0.1788903    
## idIreland            -1.3981e-02  2.1261e-02  -0.6576 0.5110544    
## idItaly              -1.9580e-02  2.1263e-02  -0.9209 0.3575186    
## idJapan              -5.9333e-04  2.1255e-02  -0.0279 0.9777395    
## idLuxembourg         -5.3942e-02  2.7232e-02  -1.9808 0.0480936 *  
## idNetherlands        -6.6834e-03  2.1258e-02  -0.3144 0.7533352    
## idNewZealand          1.3487e-01  6.2480e-02   2.1586 0.0313005 *  
## idPortugal            2.2986e-02  2.2566e-02   1.0186 0.3088079    
## idSpain              -2.8665e-02  2.1445e-02  -1.3367 0.1818537    
## idSweden             -1.5078e-02  2.1648e-02  -0.6965 0.4863950    
## idSwitzerland         5.0429e-03  2.1279e-02   0.2370 0.8127504    
## idUnitedKingdom      -4.8772e-02  2.1295e-02  -2.2903 0.0223709 *  
## idUnitedStates       -1.5376e-02  2.1261e-02  -0.7232 0.4698358    
## time1991              2.2099e+00  3.4408e-01   6.4228 2.830e-10 ***
## time1992             -1.9699e+00  3.6232e-01  -5.4368 8.064e-08 ***
## time1993             -1.7584e+00  3.1989e-01  -5.4967 5.852e-08 ***
## time1994              3.2949e-01  4.7837e-02   6.8877 1.508e-11 ***
## time1995              3.3986e+00  5.4906e-01   6.1899 1.154e-09 ***
## time1996              3.0313e+00  4.9058e-01   6.1791 1.231e-09 ***
## time1997              3.0678e+00  4.9832e-01   6.1562 1.409e-09 ***
## time1998             -2.1330e+00  3.8516e-01  -5.5380 4.683e-08 ***
## time1999              4.8581e+00  8.0463e-01   6.0377 2.826e-09 ***
## time2000              6.4038e+00  1.0676e+00   5.9983 3.551e-09 ***
## time2001             -3.0640e-01  9.0303e-02  -3.3930 0.0007394 ***
## time2002              2.0898e+00  3.2872e-01   6.3573 4.220e-10 ***
## time2003              1.0337e+01  1.7320e+00   5.9686 4.217e-09 ***
## time2004              7.9644e+00  1.3409e+00   5.9397 4.978e-09 ***
## time2005              7.2149e+00  1.2115e+00   5.9552 4.555e-09 ***
## time2006              5.8579e+00  9.8907e-01   5.9227 5.490e-09 ***
## time2007              4.9737e+00  8.3994e-01   5.9215 5.528e-09 ***
## time2008              2.4834e+00  4.1536e-01   5.9790 3.970e-09 ***
## time2009             -5.1928e+00  9.1320e-01  -5.6864 2.078e-08 ***
## time2010              7.1746e+00  1.2102e+00   5.9285 5.308e-09 ***
## time2011              4.0631e+00  6.9633e-01   5.8351 9.039e-09 ***
## time2012              8.6719e-01  1.3314e-01   6.5136 1.617e-10 ***
## time2013              4.4403e-01  7.6615e-02   5.7956 1.129e-08 ***
## time2014             -7.3348e-01  1.4283e-01  -5.1353 3.877e-07 ***
## time2015             -5.6678e+00  1.0054e+00  -5.6374 2.723e-08 ***
## time2016             -6.1828e-01  1.3518e-01  -4.5739 5.882e-06 ***
## time2017              3.2955e+00  5.4688e-01   6.0260 3.024e-09 ***
## time2018              1.9168e+00  3.1385e-01   6.1073 1.880e-09 ***
## iis125                3.4714e-01  8.7501e-02   3.9672 8.202e-05 ***
## iis130                3.9520e-01  8.7823e-02   4.5000 8.245e-06 ***
## iis140                4.0009e-01  8.7534e-02   4.5707 5.969e-06 ***
## iis147                2.8770e-01  8.7477e-02   3.2889 0.0010681 ** 
## iis170               -4.0365e-01  8.8621e-02  -4.5548 6.420e-06 ***
## iis171                4.1734e-01  8.9477e-02   4.6642 3.867e-06 ***
## iis194                3.0079e-01  8.7495e-02   3.4378 0.0006294 ***
## iis376               -2.3867e-01  8.8827e-02  -2.6869 0.0074224 ** 
## iis377               -4.4835e-01  8.9073e-02  -5.0335 6.474e-07 ***
## iis378               -2.2933e-01  8.9996e-02  -2.5483 0.0110879 *  
## iis379               -4.8295e-01  8.9144e-02  -5.4176 8.934e-08 ***
## iis380               -1.0717e+00  8.9863e-02 -11.9259 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis382                3.1383e-01  8.8846e-02   3.5323 0.0004455 ***
## iis383                6.0198e-01  8.9143e-02   6.7530 3.589e-11 ***
## iis384                1.0807e+00  9.0160e-02  11.9869 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis386                2.1212e-01  8.8769e-02   2.3896 0.0171940 *  
## iis391                2.1114e-01  8.8790e-02   2.3780 0.0177372 *  
## iis471               -2.8008e-01  8.7967e-02  -3.1839 0.0015328 ** 
## iis485               -3.5655e-01  8.7522e-02  -4.0738 5.283e-05 ***
## iis517                2.4292e-01  8.7433e-02   2.7784 0.0056442 ** 
## iis533                3.5395e-01  8.7698e-02   4.0361 6.181e-05 ***
## iis534               -2.7607e-01  8.7951e-02  -3.1390 0.0017835 ** 
## fesisFinland.2005    -6.6285e-02  3.1952e-02  -2.0746 0.0384772 *  
## fesisFrance.1992     -3.9240e-01  1.0522e-01  -3.7293 0.0002113 ***
## fesisFrance.1994      2.5009e-01  6.2900e-02   3.9760 7.912e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -4.4950e-01  6.4987e-02  -6.9169 1.248e-11 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2017  4.8923e-01  7.1810e-02   6.8129 2.445e-11 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1993 -3.1654e-01  7.8390e-02  -4.0381 6.130e-05 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1996  4.7434e-01  7.8570e-02   6.0372 2.834e-09 ***
## fesisNewZealand.1998 -2.9949e-01  6.3394e-02  -4.7243 2.914e-06 ***
## fesisPortugal.2018   -2.2374e-01  4.6281e-02  -4.8343 1.722e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df p-value   
## Ljung-Box AR(1)    6.4446  1 0.01113 * 
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 10.2725  1 0.00135 **
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.08368
## R-squared          0.63606
## Log-lik.(n=651)  732.73948

p = 0.01

## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp + d.lpop + d.lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.01; AR: 1"
## 
## Date: Thu Oct 13 22:27:16 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651 
## Sample: 1 to 651 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                             coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## ar1                  -1.2441e-01  2.9862e-02  -4.1660 3.570e-05 ***
## d.lgdp               -9.5533e+02  1.7295e+02  -5.5237 5.007e-08 ***
## d.lpop               -1.4291e+01  3.6608e+00  -3.9039 0.0001057 ***
## d.lgdp_sq             1.6281e+01  2.9415e+00   5.5351 4.706e-08 ***
## idAustria            -1.3266e-02  2.3226e-02  -0.5712 0.5681004    
## idBelgium            -2.8286e-02  2.3237e-02  -1.2173 0.2239866    
## idCanada             -1.9122e-02  2.3234e-02  -0.8230 0.4108240    
## idDenmark            -8.0581e-02  2.3684e-02  -3.4023 0.0007140 ***
## idFinland            -1.9593e-02  2.3642e-02  -0.8287 0.4075887    
## idFrance             -3.1428e-02  2.3438e-02  -1.3409 0.1804776    
## idGermany            -2.8976e-02  2.3245e-02  -1.2466 0.2130601    
## idGreece             -2.9486e-02  2.3240e-02  -1.2688 0.2050308    
## idIreland            -1.4528e-02  2.3231e-02  -0.6254 0.5319776    
## idItaly              -2.0206e-02  2.3233e-02  -0.8697 0.3848106    
## idJapan              -5.8189e-04  2.3225e-02  -0.0251 0.9800202    
## idLuxembourg         -2.3080e-02  5.6427e-02  -0.4090 0.6826718    
## idNetherlands        -7.0675e-03  2.3228e-02  -0.3043 0.7610331    
## idNewZealand         -8.8910e-03  2.3427e-02  -0.3795 0.7044471    
## idPortugal           -1.2500e-03  2.4116e-02  -0.0518 0.9586780    
## idSpain              -2.1553e-02  2.3236e-02  -0.9276 0.3540088    
## idSweden             -2.4250e-02  2.3430e-02  -1.0350 0.3010964    
## idSwitzerland         6.1508e-03  2.3250e-02   0.2646 0.7914489    
## idUnitedKingdom      -5.0211e-02  2.3267e-02  -2.1580 0.0313355 *  
## idUnitedStates       -1.5922e-02  2.3231e-02  -0.6854 0.4933772    
## time1991              2.2383e+00  3.7586e-01   5.9551 4.495e-09 ***
## time1992             -1.9574e+00  3.9586e-01  -4.9446 9.991e-07 ***
## time1993             -1.7645e+00  3.4951e-01  -5.0486 5.959e-07 ***
## time1994              3.3095e-01  5.2021e-02   6.3618 4.034e-10 ***
## time1995              3.3767e+00  5.9989e-01   5.6288 2.823e-08 ***
## time1996              3.0322e+00  5.3595e-01   5.6577 2.407e-08 ***
## time1997              3.0353e+00  5.4443e-01   5.5752 3.785e-08 ***
## time1998             -2.1163e+00  4.2084e-01  -5.0288 6.578e-07 ***
## time1999              4.8355e+00  8.7915e-01   5.5002 5.684e-08 ***
## time2000              6.3898e+00  1.1665e+00   5.4779 6.410e-08 ***
## time2001             -2.9750e-01  9.8662e-02  -3.0153 0.0026789 ** 
## time2002              2.0881e+00  3.5917e-01   5.8137 1.007e-08 ***
## time2003              1.0291e+01  1.8924e+00   5.4382 7.929e-08 ***
## time2004              7.9385e+00  1.4651e+00   5.4185 8.803e-08 ***
## time2005              7.1798e+00  1.3238e+00   5.4238 8.562e-08 ***
## time2006              5.8310e+00  1.0807e+00   5.3957 9.940e-08 ***
## time2007              4.9482e+00  9.1775e-01   5.3917 1.015e-07 ***
## time2008              2.4696e+00  4.5384e-01   5.4415 7.787e-08 ***
## time2009             -5.1588e+00  9.9777e-01  -5.1704 3.216e-07 ***
## time2010              7.1197e+00  1.3223e+00   5.3845 1.055e-07 ***
## time2011              4.0620e+00  7.6083e-01   5.3390 1.341e-07 ***
## time2012              8.6875e-01  1.4548e-01   5.9717 4.084e-09 ***
## time2013              4.6253e-01  8.3611e-02   5.5320 4.787e-08 ***
## time2014             -7.2481e-01  1.5607e-01  -4.6440 4.227e-06 ***
## time2015             -5.6388e+00  1.0985e+00  -5.1330 3.890e-07 ***
## time2016             -6.1160e-01  1.4769e-01  -4.1410 3.969e-05 ***
## time2017              3.2819e+00  5.9754e-01   5.4923 5.930e-08 ***
## time2018              1.9110e+00  3.4293e-01   5.5726 3.838e-08 ***
## iis130                3.5933e-01  9.5500e-02   3.7626 0.0001851 ***
## iis140                3.7646e-01  9.5517e-02   3.9413 9.087e-05 ***
## iis170               -4.3557e-01  9.5383e-02  -4.5665 6.054e-06 ***
## iis171                3.7472e-01  9.6353e-02   3.8890 0.0001122 ***
## iis194                3.0738e-01  9.5416e-02   3.2215 0.0013462 ** 
## iis380               -1.1816e+00  9.9587e-02 -11.8646 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis383                5.1513e-01  9.8560e-02   5.2266 2.409e-07 ***
## iis384                1.0022e+00  9.9517e-02  10.0711 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis441                4.2610e-01  9.5422e-02   4.4654 9.597e-06 ***
## iis533                3.4936e-01  9.5439e-02   3.6606 0.0002745 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1994 -3.8218e-01  7.1865e-02  -5.3180 1.497e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1998  4.4330e-01  5.5967e-02   7.9207 1.201e-14 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2011 -1.7229e-01  5.5546e-02  -3.1018 0.0020167 ** 
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -3.7454e-01  8.1179e-02  -4.6137 4.866e-06 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2017  4.9306e-01  7.8464e-02   6.2839 6.467e-10 ***
## fesisPortugal.2018   -2.0031e-01  5.0308e-02  -3.9817 7.706e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)    5.6721  1 0.0172373 *  
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 12.0374  1 0.0005214 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09144
## R-squared          0.55399
## Log-lik.(n=651)  667.53328

p = 0.001

## [1] "Formula: d.l_edgar_v7 ~ d.lgdp + d.lpop + d.lgdp_sq"
## [1] "EU15+selected (1990:2021); p.value: 0.001; AR: 1"
## 
## Date: Thu Oct 13 22:27:18 2022 
## Dependent var.: y 
## Method: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
## Variance-Covariance: Ordinary 
## No. of observations (mean eq.): 651 
## Sample: 1 to 651 
## 
## SPECIFIC mean equation:
## 
##                             coef   std.error   t-stat   p-value    
## ar1                  -1.2203e-01  3.1791e-02  -3.8387 0.0001371 ***
## d.lgdp               -9.6677e+02  1.8532e+02  -5.2168 2.525e-07 ***
## d.lpop               -1.4980e+01  3.9202e+00  -3.8212 0.0001469 ***
## d.lgdp_sq             1.6475e+01  3.1518e+00   5.2273 2.392e-07 ***
## idAustria            -1.3249e-02  2.4889e-02  -0.5323 0.5947007    
## idBelgium            -2.8227e-02  2.4901e-02  -1.1336 0.2574330    
## idCanada             -1.9071e-02  2.4898e-02  -0.7660 0.4439956    
## idDenmark            -5.6716e-02  2.4949e-02  -2.2732 0.0233712 *  
## idFinland             1.2335e-02  3.1864e-02   0.3871 0.6988052    
## idFrance             -2.1450e-02  2.4902e-02  -0.8614 0.3893956    
## idGermany            -2.8900e-02  2.4909e-02  -1.1602 0.2464402    
## idGreece             -2.9420e-02  2.4904e-02  -1.1813 0.2379573    
## idIreland            -1.4485e-02  2.4895e-02  -0.5819 0.5608758    
## idItaly              -2.0158e-02  2.4897e-02  -0.8097 0.4184666    
## idJapan              -5.8277e-04  2.4888e-02  -0.0234 0.9813267    
## idLuxembourg         -1.9749e-02  6.0474e-02  -0.3266 0.7441079    
## idNetherlands        -7.0377e-03  2.4891e-02  -0.2827 0.7774772    
## idNewZealand          4.8440e-03  2.4889e-02   0.1946 0.8457518    
## idPortugal           -2.7044e-02  2.4898e-02  -1.0862 0.2778372    
## idSpain              -2.1497e-02  2.4900e-02  -0.8633 0.3882993    
## idSweden             -1.2948e-02  2.4892e-02  -0.5202 0.6031341    
## idSwitzerland         6.0650e-03  2.4915e-02   0.2434 0.8077583    
## idUnitedKingdom      -5.0099e-02  2.4933e-02  -2.0094 0.0449546 *  
## idUnitedStates       -1.5880e-02  2.4895e-02  -0.6379 0.5237997    
## time1991              2.2684e+00  4.0271e-01   5.6328 2.749e-08 ***
## time1992             -1.9801e+00  4.2418e-01  -4.6681 3.767e-06 ***
## time1993             -1.7845e+00  3.7452e-01  -4.7647 2.384e-06 ***
## time1994              3.3752e-01  5.5721e-02   6.0574 2.468e-09 ***
## time1995              3.4217e+00  6.4277e-01   5.3235 1.450e-07 ***
## time1996              3.1068e+00  5.7420e-01   5.4106 9.150e-08 ***
## time1997              3.0966e+00  5.8331e-01   5.3087 1.566e-07 ***
## time1998             -2.1276e+00  4.5091e-01  -4.7186 2.970e-06 ***
## time1999              4.9004e+00  9.4199e-01   5.2022 2.723e-07 ***
## time2000              6.4753e+00  1.2499e+00   5.1808 3.038e-07 ***
## time2001             -2.9985e-01  1.0573e-01  -2.8360 0.0047254 ** 
## time2002              2.1163e+00  3.8483e-01   5.4994 5.685e-08 ***
## time2003              1.0427e+01  2.0277e+00   5.1422 3.702e-07 ***
## time2004              8.0451e+00  1.5698e+00   5.1250 4.041e-07 ***
## time2005              7.2787e+00  1.4184e+00   5.1317 3.905e-07 ***
## time2006              5.9325e+00  1.1579e+00   5.1235 4.071e-07 ***
## time2007              5.0209e+00  9.8333e-01   5.1060 4.449e-07 ***
## time2008              2.5105e+00  4.8624e-01   5.1632 3.326e-07 ***
## time2009             -5.2190e+00  1.0691e+00  -4.8815 1.357e-06 ***
## time2010              7.2219e+00  1.4168e+00   5.0975 4.644e-07 ***
## time2011              4.1160e+00  8.1519e-01   5.0491 5.927e-07 ***
## time2012              8.7980e-01  1.5583e-01   5.6460 2.556e-08 ***
## time2013              4.6855e-01  8.9523e-02   5.2339 2.312e-07 ***
## time2014             -7.3478e-01  1.6724e-01  -4.3936 1.322e-05 ***
## time2015             -5.7113e+00  1.1771e+00  -4.8521 1.566e-06 ***
## time2016             -6.1429e-01  1.5827e-01  -3.8812 0.0001157 ***
## time2017              3.3311e+00  6.4022e-01   5.2031 2.710e-07 ***
## time2018              1.9340e+00  3.6745e-01   5.2633 1.985e-07 ***
## iis171                3.8455e-01  1.0457e-01   3.6774 0.0002572 ***
## iis380               -1.1432e+00  1.0504e-01 -10.8839 < 2.2e-16 ***
## iis383                5.6705e-01  1.0433e-01   5.4349 8.037e-08 ***
## iis384                1.0535e+00  1.0545e-01   9.9909 < 2.2e-16 ***
## fesisFinland.2005    -4.6801e-01  1.0405e-01  -4.4980 8.267e-06 ***
## fesisFinland.2006     4.0765e-01  1.0376e-01   3.9286 9.556e-05 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1994 -3.9586e-01  7.6974e-02  -5.1428 3.689e-07 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.1998  4.0438e-01  5.7342e-02   7.0522 4.956e-12 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2015 -4.9686e-01  7.6088e-02  -6.5301 1.421e-10 ***
## fesisLuxembourg.2017  5.0085e-01  8.4058e-02   5.9584 4.387e-09 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Diagnostics and fit:
## 
##                    Chi-sq df   p-value    
## Ljung-Box AR(1)    8.2164  1  0.004151 ** 
## Ljung-Box ARCH(1) 15.9643  1 6.455e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##                           
## SE of regression   0.09798
## R-squared          0.48255
## Log-lik.(n=651)  619.50659